Category: January Thaw

Jan 31

Unseasonably Dry And Calm Open To February; Winter’s Return…

Updated 01.31.24 @7:06a

In the short term, there’s really nothing of significance to discuss. We have no changes to our thinking that February opens on an unusually dry and mild note. In fact, we don’t forecast our next opportunity of measurable precipitation until late next week or next weekend.

Upcoming 10-day precipitation anomalies
Upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies

Despite the well earned thaw that we’ll enjoy now, winter is far from over. In fact, not only do we forecast a return to a cold, wintry pattern around Feb 10th (give or take a day or two), but it’s easy to build a case that this should be a more prolonged cold blast when compared to its January predecessor. The reason? Alignment with the teleconnection suite (emphasizing the anticipated strong negative NAO). We also anticipate the MJO getting into Phase 8 by mid-month which opens up the window for the potential of more extreme cold.

To no surprise, the latest ensemble data is pointing towards where the pattern is heading once past the first 1/3 of February.

Once we lock into the colder pattern, thinking here is we’ll remain locked in with an overall cold signal to close Feb and open March (first 10-14 days). It may be a “rubber band” type pattern. Cold to open before an abrupt flip to significantly warmer (hot?) conditions for the second half of March.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/31/unseasonably-dry-and-calm-open-to-february-winters-return/

Jan 30

VIDEO: Weak Clipper Today; Unusually Quiet Stretch Of Weather Ahead…

Updated 01.30.24 @ 7:16a A weak clipper will deliver mixed showers this morning and a round of light snow showers this evening. Totals with both rounds of precipitation will be…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/30/video-weak-clipper-today-unusually-quiet-stretch-of-weather-ahead/

Jan 26

VIDEO: Wet Snow Accumulation For Parts Of The Region Sunday Morning; Pattern Evolution Into Early March…

Updated 01.26.24 @ 7:38a A quiet but gloomy and unseasonably mild close to the work week can be expected before a weak system skirts the region Saturday evening into predawn…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/26/video-wet-snow-accumulation-for-parts-of-the-region-sunday-morning-pattern-evolution-into-early-march/

Jan 25

VIDEO: Source Region Change For Our Storm Systems Between Now And Next Week; Establishing A Bar On Just How Cold We Get Next Month…

Updated 01.25.24 @ 7:36a Dense fog is present yet again this morning, but at least we’re not dealing with heavy rain. That changes later this evening as a slug of…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/25/video-source-region-change-for-our-storm-systems-between-now-and-next-week-establishing-a-bar-on-just-how-cold-we-get-next-month/

Jan 24

Wet Times Give Way To A Drier Week 2; Unseasonably Mild Open To February…

Updated 01.24.24 @ 6:09a

Week 1 remains significantly wetter than normal across not only our neck of the woods but a good chunk of the East.

This will give way to a quieter Week 2 timeframe.

There’s some threat that the southern tier and immediate eastern seaboard never is fully able to relish in the magnitude of the warm anomalies the majority of the rest of us will see as we roll through early February. Just to reiterate, as much as we believe cold, wintry weather returns in February, it’s not after a significant period of milder times (compared to average) to open the month- likely the first 10-14 days.

Just how mild are we talking? Several days with highs into the 40s and even 50s and overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. This compares to early Feb “norms” in the low 20s and highs into the upper 30s. It’s a byproduct of the MJO and alignment with the teleconnections (PNA aside) in the warm phases. As shown Monday in our LR video, we believe this all flips around in a big way later into the month, continuing into March.

In the short term, additional waves of rain (and dense fog) will keep things gloomy around these parts. Most widespread rain will come at us now through late morning before returning Thursday evening-overnight. Most rain gauges can expect to pick up an additional 0.75” to as much as 1.25”+ during this time period.

Modeling continues to differ in a major fashion with the weekend storm. The GFS is further north with heavy precipitation and a transition to leftover snow showers, locally while the European takes the suppressed route. Today will likely bring alignment between the two solutions. . .

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/24/wet-times-give-way-to-a-drier-week-2-unseasonably-mild-open-to-february/

Jan 22

VIDEO: Icy Setup Tonight Gives Way To Foggy, Wet, But Milder Times Ahead…

Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:56a While portions of western and northern IN will see some light sleet and freezing rain this morning, the concern here remains on what lies ahead tonight…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/22/video-icy-setup-tonight-gives-way-to-foggy-wet-but-milder-times-ahead/

Jan 21

Sunday Morning Rambles: Talking About Icing Monday Evening, Wet Week Ahead, And Potential Of A Wintry Return…

Updated 01.21.24 @ 7:51a

This is the 4th morning of the new year where most, if not all, of central Indiana is waking up to subzero temperatures.

While temperatures will moderate this week, our January “thaw” won’t come without a few bumps in the road. A wet and active pattern will accompany the milder air, and we’re likely also going to be dealing with periods of dense fog early and mid week.

The onset of this wet shift will come with a period of freezing rain Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Due to the extremely cold surface, it’s icing on roadways and sidewalks that worry us most as opposed to elevated (tree limbs/ power lines) icing. Anticipate slick and hazardous travel Monday night into predawn Tuesday before temperatures “warm.” If possible, we highly recommend simply staying off area roadways during this time frame.

Our next round of moderate to locally heavy rain will push into the Ohio Valley and central Indiana Wednesday into Thursday.

The late week storm may even take on a bit of a wintry flavor Friday into Saturday.

Despite this sneaky potential of a little wintry fun, it’ll be within what’s otherwise going to be a much warmer than normal period over the upcoming couple weeks (of course, once we get past tomorrow).

Not only is the MJO rolling into traditionally warm phases for this time of year, but our teleconnection suite is aligned in a manner that also strongly argues for milder to much milder than normal conditions across our neck of the woods.

Eventually, we anticipate a return of colder than normal temperatures and another opportunity for ice/ snow but likely not until we get to mid-February and beyond. If you didn’t have a chance to catch our Long Range update, we recommend listening here, including February and thoughts into meteorological spring.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/21/sunday-morning-rambles-talking-about-icing-monday-evening-wet-week-ahead-and-potential-of-a-wintry-return/

Jan 20

VIDEO: Bitter Weekend Gives Way To A Significant Thaw; Wet Pattern Develops…

Updated 01.20.24 @ 11:50a Arctic high pressure will build overhead this weekend and while we still have a couple days of very cold weather to contend with it won’t be…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/20/video-bitter-weekend-gives-way-to-a-significant-thaw-wet-pattern-develops/

Jan 18

VIDEO: Snowy, Windy, And Turning Colder Yet Again; Big Warmup On Deck Next Week, But Comes With Unsettled Weather…

Updated 01.18.24 @ 7:22a We continue to eye an accumulating snow event to close out the work week and this will precede arctic reinforcements that once again will take us…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/18/video-snowy-windy-and-turning-colder-yet-again-big-warmup-on-deck-next-week-but-comes-with-unsettled-weather/

Dec 26

Significant Thaw Ahead, But Bullish On Winter’s Return…

Updated 12.26.22 @ 9:40a

It’s certainly no secret that a big thaw is ahead. As we set the bar with this current cold spell, we’ll set the bar for the upcoming period of warmth: minimum of (2) days of highs of 60°, or greater, between Jan. 1 and Jan. 5. It’s another case of a significant thaw following a bitter blast of arctic air. In researching classic arctic outbreaks of the past, this happens many more times than not.

In any event, we continue to see the relatively mild and wet pattern carrying us through the first week of January.

But seeds are already being planted for a renewed wintry spell. In particular, the teleconnections are bullish on cold returning around, or just after, Jan. 10. We note the longer range charts keep these pattern drivers in a favorable position for more of a prolonged period of cold, as well:

Forecasters have to love the overall alignment as this helps build medium to longer range confidence in the overall pattern progression.

Then we add in the MJO rumbling into Phase 7 for early January. While there will be a bit of a lag, this is another signal for a cold look across the eastern portion of the country, especially by that Jan. 10 time frame.

While I can’t say we’ll see another arctic shot to the magnitude of this current frigid regime, I am more confident than normal from this distance in the period that runs from Jan. 10 through Jan. 25 being colder than normal as a whole. I would anticipate the longer range modeling (Weeklies, in particular) becoming increasingly cold with updates this week during that aforementioned period.

More updates to come as we rumble through this holiday week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/26/significant-thaw-ahead-but-bullish-on-winters-return/

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