Category: January Thaw

VIDEO: Icy Setup Tonight Gives Way To Foggy, Wet, But Milder Times Ahead…

Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:56a While portions of western and northern IN will see some light sleet and freezing rain this morning, the concern here remains on what lies ahead tonight…

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Sunday Morning Rambles: Talking About Icing Monday Evening, Wet Week Ahead, And Potential Of A Wintry Return…

Updated 01.21.24 @ 7:51a

This is the 4th morning of the new year where most, if not all, of central Indiana is waking up to subzero temperatures.

While temperatures will moderate this week, our January “thaw” won’t come without a few bumps in the road. A wet and active pattern will accompany the milder air, and we’re likely also going to be dealing with periods of dense fog early and mid week.

The onset of this wet shift will come with a period of freezing rain Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Due to the extremely cold surface, it’s icing on roadways and sidewalks that worry us most as opposed to elevated (tree limbs/ power lines) icing. Anticipate slick and hazardous travel Monday night into predawn Tuesday before temperatures “warm.” If possible, we highly recommend simply staying off area roadways during this time frame.

Our next round of moderate to locally heavy rain will push into the Ohio Valley and central Indiana Wednesday into Thursday.

The late week storm may even take on a bit of a wintry flavor Friday into Saturday.

Despite this sneaky potential of a little wintry fun, it’ll be within what’s otherwise going to be a much warmer than normal period over the upcoming couple weeks (of course, once we get past tomorrow).

Not only is the MJO rolling into traditionally warm phases for this time of year, but our teleconnection suite is aligned in a manner that also strongly argues for milder to much milder than normal conditions across our neck of the woods.

Eventually, we anticipate a return of colder than normal temperatures and another opportunity for ice/ snow but likely not until we get to mid-February and beyond. If you didn’t have a chance to catch our Long Range update, we recommend listening here, including February and thoughts into meteorological spring.

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VIDEO: Bitter Weekend Gives Way To A Significant Thaw; Wet Pattern Develops…

Updated 01.20.24 @ 11:50a Arctic high pressure will build overhead this weekend and while we still have a couple days of very cold weather to contend with it won’t be…

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VIDEO: Snowy, Windy, And Turning Colder Yet Again; Big Warmup On Deck Next Week, But Comes With Unsettled Weather…

Updated 01.18.24 @ 7:22a We continue to eye an accumulating snow event to close out the work week and this will precede arctic reinforcements that once again will take us…

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Significant Thaw Ahead, But Bullish On Winter’s Return…

Updated 12.26.22 @ 9:40a

It’s certainly no secret that a big thaw is ahead. As we set the bar with this current cold spell, we’ll set the bar for the upcoming period of warmth: minimum of (2) days of highs of 60°, or greater, between Jan. 1 and Jan. 5. It’s another case of a significant thaw following a bitter blast of arctic air. In researching classic arctic outbreaks of the past, this happens many more times than not.

In any event, we continue to see the relatively mild and wet pattern carrying us through the first week of January.

But seeds are already being planted for a renewed wintry spell. In particular, the teleconnections are bullish on cold returning around, or just after, Jan. 10. We note the longer range charts keep these pattern drivers in a favorable position for more of a prolonged period of cold, as well:

Forecasters have to love the overall alignment as this helps build medium to longer range confidence in the overall pattern progression.

Then we add in the MJO rumbling into Phase 7 for early January. While there will be a bit of a lag, this is another signal for a cold look across the eastern portion of the country, especially by that Jan. 10 time frame.

While I can’t say we’ll see another arctic shot to the magnitude of this current frigid regime, I am more confident than normal from this distance in the period that runs from Jan. 10 through Jan. 25 being colder than normal as a whole. I would anticipate the longer range modeling (Weeklies, in particular) becoming increasingly cold with updates this week during that aforementioned period.

More updates to come as we rumble through this holiday week…

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