Category Archives: Independence Day

Muggy Air (And Storm Chances) Returns…

Highlights:

  • One more pleasant day
  • Humidity increases
  • Storm chances return

Unsettled Weather Looms…We’ve got one more pleasant day to enjoy, but take advantage of it as changes for a more tropical-feel loom.  With that increasingly warm and moist air, we’ll also see an increase in showers and thunderstorms as we wrap up the week.  While it won’t rain the entire time, a couple rounds of strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible during the Thursday afternoon-Friday period.

We think we return to drier conditions late weekend into Monday, but this drier theme likely won’t hold through the holiday period.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms return by Independence Day.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ -1.50″ (locally heavier totals)
7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Independence Day, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Unseasonably Cool; Heavy Rains…

Screen Shot 2016-07-03 at 10.14.18 AMHighlights:

  • Heavy rain
  • Unseasonably cool
  • Turning warmer
  • Active, stormy time later in the week

Jacket And Rain Gear Needed…The first of two rounds of widespread, soaking rains is pushing across central IN this morning.  Periods of moderate to heavy rains will develop later tonight as round two arrives on the scene.  Localized flooding is likely tonight and Monday morning.  The overall set-up is one that features a stationary front draped across the region with ripples of energy (low pressure) moving along the boundary.  In addition to the wet weather, this will also set up quite the temperature gradient across the state today.  Here across central IN, jackets will be needed all day with highs struggling to climb much out of the middle 60s.  Downstate, temperatures will zoom into the 80s with a severe component added into the mix tonight for southern IN (with the focus primarily being straight line winds).

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Independence Day, but we’re still hopeful in thinking we begin to dry things out for the afternoon and evening.  That’s great news for the fireworks and festivities planned tomorrow evening.

We begin to heat things back up and add storms into the mix for mid and late week as the region gets into an active NW flow regime.  The potential is there for a couple of rather noisy storm complexes later this week.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 3.5″-4.5″ (locally heavier amounts)
7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Unseasonably Cool; The Calm Before The Storm…

The morning is off to a dry and unseasonably cool start, including filtered sunshine.  Temperatures are running 15-20 degrees below normal across the state, with many central IN neighborhoods currently in the lower to middle 50s.

t0Mid and high level clouds will spread over the region today, but we’ll stay dry.  We’ll notice a lowering and thickening cloud deck by evening and this is a hint at things to come Sunday.

Screen Shot 2016-07-02 at 7.44.09 AMRain will overspread the region Sunday morning, increasing in coverage and intensity as we progress into Sunday evening.

hires_ref_indy_31Rain will turn locally heavy at times and we expect a widespread swath of 2″-3″ totals through the heart of the state, with localized heavier amounts.  Precipitable water values exceed 2″ across central and southern IN Sunday evening and will likely promote a flash flood threat.
1Most of the rain falls Sunday morning-Monday morning before drier air begins to try and work in here as Monday afternoon arrives.  As of now, we think Monday evening firework shows should be a go!

Sunday will also be a chilly day for the time of the year as temperatures north of I-70 likely remain in the 60s most of the day.

We’ll have a video update posted later this evening with fresh thoughts from the 12z model suite.

Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Enjoy The Dry Time While We Have It…

Screen Shot 2016-06-29 at 6.18.41 PMHighlights:

  • Pleasant air in the short-term
  • Storm chances Friday
  • Widespread soaker

Looking Increasingly Wet For The Holiday Weekend…High pressure will supply continued dry times Thursday, but clouds will increase during the evening and give way to scattered showers and embedded thunder Friday. This doesn’t look like a huge deal, but don’t be surprised by rain and/ or a clap of thunder to close the work week.  That said, there will be more dry time than wet Friday.

As we rumble into the long Independence Day weekend, confidence continues to increase for a widespread soaking rain to develop.  Thankfully, Saturday still looks mostly dry, but we think clouds will be on the increase late in the day, followed by rain overspreading the region from west to east as Sunday afternoon approaches.  Widespread rain should continue into Monday.  We still have questions on timing and precise placement of heaviest rains (2″+ totals), but it’s safe to say most, if not all, of the region can expect a long-duration rain event developing Sunday.  Stay tuned.  It’ll also be cool.  Areas where heaviest rains set up Sunday likely won’t climb out of the 60s.

Drier air will return late Monday into the middle of next week, but we caution that another wet weather maker appears to have eye on the region beginning next Thursday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.5″-2.5″
1 Comment 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather