Category Archives: Independence Day

Early July Heat Wave?

While cooler and wetter conditions dominate now, thoughts are shifting ahead to the all-important 4th of July time period.

Models are in relative agreement that a sprawling upper level ridge will park itself over the Ohio Valley, leading to a higher than normal confidence for a medium to longer term forecast period.

The end result would be anomalous heat and a drier pattern, as a whole, as we transition through the early stages of July.  Heat to the magnitude of what we experienced last weekend isn’t off the table with such a similar pattern.

Looking ahead, thankfully, one of our more trusted longer range computer models (JMA Weeklies), shows the pattern relaxing as we move into mid-July.  The model shows the heat backing west and a more active northwest flow (wetter pattern) returning here…

Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Independence Day, Rain, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Monday Morning Rambles…

An early look at the radar this morning shows a couple of lone storms near Decatur and Blufton. These are moving off to the east. 

While we’ll maintain mention of a widely scattered thunderstorm today and Independence Day, the majority of both days will remain rain-free. 

A wave of low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday and this will result in an uptick in storm coverage. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. While some localized totals could be higher, we think widespread rains of 1″-1.5″ is a good bet Wednesday night into Thursday. 

High pressure will build in over the weekend and aid in a drier and cooler theme.

Lows will return to the 50s across central Indiana Sunday morning and refreshing (upper 50s at night and upper 70s to lower 80s during the day) air will remain with us into early next week. 

Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Mainly Dry Weekend; Stormy Weather Returns Next Week…

Highlights:

  • Mostly dry this weekend
  • Unsettled next week
  • Locally heavy rain

Classic Summertime Weather…While we’ll deal with some clouds from time to time today, most of the region will remain rain-free.  Best chances of seeing a passing shower will be across the southern half of the state.  Sunday will feature partly cloudy and seasonable conditions.  It’ll be a great day to be outdoors!

Unsettled conditions will return next week, including Independence Day.  Storm coverage will be most widespread during the afternoon and evening hours in this “rinse and repeat” pattern through late week.  That said, each day will offer up many more dry hours than stormy.  Just have a “plan B” in mind when those passing storms arrive.

Looking ahead, we may inject a drier and slightly cooler regime next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  1.50″ – 2.00″
7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Independence Day, Rain, Summer, T-storms

Thursday Morning Rambles…

1.)  Temperatures are running much warmer across the Mid West and Ohio Valley this morning.  In most cases, communities are 15° to 20° ahead of this time 24 hours ago.  Ah, the fall-like feel was nice while we had it!

2.)  With the increasing warmth and humidity will also come an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances today through Saturday.  Most widespread coverage of thunderstorms should occur during the evening hours today and Friday night into Saturday morning.  Drier air will try and work in Saturday afternoon into Sunday.  Here’s a look at the forecast radar valid at 7p this evening.

3.)  While we should dry things out Saturday afternoon into Sunday, active times will return early next week.  We’ll have to fine tune timing, but the period Monday into Independence Day may feature a rather strong storm complex moving in a southeast fashion across the region.  Again, details still have to be determined.  While strong storms are possible at some point during the period, more dry time than wet can be expected.

4.)  The latest JMA Weeklies are in and while we’ll have a more extensive post this evening on the weekly breakdown, the screaming message to us is an active period continues along with cooler anomalies setting up shop across the central, including our region.

Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Independence Day, JMA, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Weather Rambles