Category: HRRR
I’m just getting settled back in from Auburn, AL, but wanted to update a couple of items before a complete 7-day post in the morning.
1.) Rain is continuing to become more widespread to our southwest and will overspread southern and central Indiana during the overnight into the wee morning hours Tuesday. Most communities will accumulate 0.50″-1.00″ of needed rain, but a few locally heavier totals (closer to 2″) can be expected. The HRRR forecast rainfall totals by 11am (when most of the rain will be ending across even our eastern counties) looks solid and we agree with this for the most part. Note the heavier forecast totals across southwestern Indiana.
2.) A cold front will sweep the state Friday night into Saturday morning and result in a MUCH cooler weekend. Temperatures will fall to well below normal levels (by 5-8 degrees on average) over the weekend and result in a perfect, early fall-like, feel! Highs Saturday through Monday will likely only range in the lower to middle 70s with overnight lows in the lower 50s (a few readings into the 40s can be expected outside the city).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/01/beneficial-steady-rains-coming-overnight/
Good morning football fans! Your IndySportsReport.com high school football forecast promises to be a warm and humid one with storm potential… A warm front will lift north through the region…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/29/muggy-and-potentially-stormy-indysportsreport-com-football-forecast/
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Break In Humidity Won’t Last Long…A briefly drier air mass will filter into the region tonight into Thursday, but won’t last long. Heat and humidity will return to wrap up the work week and move into the weekend. A couple of storms will be possible Thursday, but most should remain rain-free.
Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday through Sunday. We’re not talking about a weekend wash out by any means and there will be more dry hours than stormy.
Early Week Cold Front…A cold front will move through the area Tuesday evening and feature a cooler and drier brand of air for mid week. Stormy times continue beforehand with shower and thunderstorms in our Monday and Tuesday forecast before we dry things out Wednesday.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″ – 2.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
A briefly drier air mass will move into the region late tonight into Thursday. Humidity will return quickly to wrap up the work week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/27/slightly-less-humid-still-cant-rule-out-a-storm/
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Frontal Boundary Leads To Better Shower And Storm Coverage…A cold front will slip through central Indiana later this evening. This will be a focal point in better coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, especially this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy downpours can be expected though rainfall amounts won’t be uniform (rarely are this time of year).
The boundary will move just south of the region Wednesday before stalling out. It’ll remain close enough to maintain mention of scattered thunderstorms into your mid week forecast with a drier forecast Thursday. Temperatures will slip backwards a couple of notches and humidity values will improve to a degree mid week.
Stormy Times Return…After a somewhat drier time of things mid week, unsettled times will return late week into the Labor Day weekend. No all day rains are anticipated, but there will be periods of storminess into and through the weekend.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″-2.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
We received a couple colorful sunrise pictures this morning from Boone County, highlighted by cloud shots from storms ongoing to our north. Thanks to John (T) and Paul (B) for these great photos this morning!
Rainfall totals will be far from uniform today, but more locally heavy downpours can be expected.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/26/front-moves-through-this-evening/
Another night, another round of storms! Our busy and stormy “ring of fire” pattern continues and will promote additional storm complexes Friday morning (followed by more stormy times Friday night/…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/21/more-storms-to-go/
A look at some of the latest data hot off the press suggests we remain under fire for the potential of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening hours. Initial activity could fire as early as 3-4 o’clock across western sections. The latest HRRR forecast radar (valid at 4pm) shows an advancing line of strong, and possibly severe, storms pushing east.
Again, the primary threat is damaging wind, but a couple hail reports will also be possible.
As of the 12 o’clock hour, a complex of thunderstorms sits to our west across western/ central portions of Illinois. We’ll keep a close eye on this complex as it continues pushing east and likely intensifies in a hot, humid, and unstable air mass over the next few hours. Please plan a way to keep abreast of the latest radar and local media this afternoon and evening as storms move in.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/19/still-focused-on-this-evening-for-severe-storm-potential/
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Filed under Forecast, Forecast Discussion, HRRR, Jet Stream Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos
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August 16, 2014
Happy Saturday afternoon to all! This evening’s video covers what continues to look like an active weather pattern, including multiple rain chances ahead for the upcoming week. We also discuss the upper air pattern and the expanding area of heat.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/16/talking-heat-humidity-and-rain/
Some are waking up to the pitter-patter of rain drops this morning and this is a sign of what’s ahead this weekend. While it won’t rain the entire time, most folks will see beneficial rainfall over the weekend. In this case, rain is a good thing, as we’re running under normal rainfall totals month-to-date by 1.23″.
Morning showers will push through the region before dry conditions return late morning into the early afternoon. Scattered showers will then again “dot” the central Indiana landscape this evening before potentially a more widespread rain moves in overnight.
Forecast radar at 10am:
Forecast radar at 6pm:
Heavier rainfall may push in overnight from the west as low pressure draws closer…
Forecast radar at 10pm:
Sunday will have a more humid feel to the air and scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in our forecast:
This is only the beginning of a rather unsettled week ahead, including multiple rain and storm chances. Widespread upcoming 7-day precipitation totals range between 1.5″ and 2″, but locally heavier totals can be expected.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/16/unsettled-weekend/
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Fall-Like Breeze…The second of two cold fronts moved through central Indiana overnight. A weak trough of low pressure is yet to pass, but will do so this afternoon and may be accompanied by a couple of showers. Otherwise, we’ll enjoy a stiff northwesterly breeze today and it’ll feel very much like early fall out! The humidity of yesterday is long gone and we’ll really begin to notice the drier feel to the air this evening.
Dry skies and early fall-like temperatures will continue Wednesday. Some may even start the day in the upper 40s away from the city, especially across western suburbs.
Weak Cold Front…A weak cold front will blow through Thursday, but moisture will be limited. While an isolated shower is possible, we chose not to even bring out the shower icon for Thursday, as these will be just that- “isolated.” Most will remain dry and unseasonably cool.
Warming Up…Temperatures will begin to moderate going into the weekend and push to above normal levels early next week. We’ll keep a close eye on the weekend as past forecast model runs suggested some rain may enter the picture Sunday. Most recent runs keep us dry through the weekend, but key on a storm system late Monday into Tuesday with possible beneficial rainfall.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″-0.50″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Fall-like temperatures are ahead over the next couple days. We forecast an official low in the city tonight in the middle 50s, but some upper 40s can be anticipated across western and northwestern suburbs.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/12/fall-like-feel/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Fog, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
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August 11, 2014
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Air You Can Wear…We’re awaking to lots of fog and very muggy conditions. Dew points remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s (very oppressive)! A shower or thunderstorm will be possible really at any time today, but most likely this afternoon as the first of two cold fronts drops into the region. Similar to yesterday, locally heavy downpours will certainly be possible with all of the moisture in the air.
A secondary cold front will blow through Tuesday with a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. We’ll get in on a much cooler and drier air flow Tuesday evening and this will set the stage for a very pleasant rest of the work week, including below normal temperatures into the weekend.
Warming Up; Chance Of Storms…Temperatures will moderate and we’ll introduce showers and thunderstorms into your forecast Sunday. Early thinking on next week suggests a potentially unsettled (stormy) one, but warmer than average.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Precipitable water values will once again approach 2″ today and assist in locally torrential downpours around the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/11/feeling-tropical-now-but-cooler-air-coming/
