Category: HRRR

Oct 07

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

1.) We posted our weekly outlook last night and this can be found below.  An active weather pattern continues.  2.) A cold front will move through the region later this evening. As a result, showers and embedded thunder will be around into the afternoon hours before drier, cooler air builds in tonight behind the front.  Forecast radar shows rain and embedded storm chances continuing into the afternoon:

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3.) Wednesday looks like the pick of the week with plentiful sunshine and pleasantly cool temperatures.  4.) Rain and storm chances return as early as Thursday into Friday.  5.) Friday stands to be quite an ugly day with rain chances and a new push of unseasonably chilly air.  A big thermal fight will be in place Friday as portions of northern Indiana don’t make it out of the 40s while temperatures across far southern areas of the state go into the 70s.  More specific to our region, look for falling daytime temperatures starting in the upper 50s.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/07/tuesday-morning-rambles/

Oct 06

Weekly Outlook: Active And Cool!

Another active period of weather is in store for the region. (After an extended stretch of pleasant conditions from late September into the opening of October, I guess we shouldn’t complain too much).

Dry days will be at a premium over the course of the upcoming 7-days.  The final in a series of disturbances in the fast northwest flow will blow through the region Tuesday.  This will offer up a threat of scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder through the daytime hours. Latest forecast radar data suggests showers and embedded thunder will be ongoing Tuesday morning.

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After a dry day Wednesday (filled with lots of sunshine), we anticipate clouds and rain to quickly return as early as Thursday.  Forecast models handle the evolution of things differently at this juncture. For now, we’ll side with a blend of the GFS and Euro and serve up best rain chances late Thursday into Friday, followed by less concentration of rain Saturday, coupled with cool north winds.

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Saturday is a tough call at this point.  The cold front will be south of our area and chilly Canadian high pressure will be building in, but we may keep considerable cloudiness and pesky showers around (similar to last Saturday?). Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune.

Note the cooler than normal air settling in over the weekend.

gfs_t2m_anom_conus_21

7-day rainfall numbers vary greatly from model to model.  Upcoming weekly rainfall totals range from as little as 1″ to as much as 2″.  The Canadian model is the most aggressive, suggesting over 2″ on a widespread basis.

cmc_total_precip_mc_33

Just beyond this time next week we may be looking at an even more significant storm system, but we still have time to fine tune things as we move forward.

Despite the dry weather late September through October’s open, the past 30 days have featured beneficial to excessive Corn Belt rainfall…

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Year-to-date has featured a wet eastern region.  Also note the dry pattern across the southwest (some places under 1″ YTD)!  Officially, we’re just slightly wetter than normal at IND, year-to-date (+0.53″).

nws_precip_conus2_270

Thinking longer term towards the darker, colder, and snowier months ahead… The JAMSTEC remains “bullish” on a regime plenty capable of delivering the cold and snowy “goods” for the region…  BTW- we usually post our annual winter outlook the first Friday of October.  Things have been very hectic as of late and we’re going to have to delay this release by a few weeks….

ssta.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014temp2.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014tprep.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/06/weekly-outlook-active-and-cool/

Oct 05

Chilly; Scattered Showers Highlight Your Colts Forecast

Colts v. Ravens Forecast Prepared For:

The Indiana Sports Report

10.05.14

Happy game day Colts fans!  A weak disturbance will cross the state later this evening.  As a result, mostly cloudy skies are forecast today along with the possibility of a few light showers this afternoon into the evening.  Temperatures will continue much cooler than normal so plan on packing the jackets and sweaters for that important tailgate.  Visit IndyWx.com for “Indy’s Behind The Scenes Weather!”

Tailgate Weather

Kickoff Weather

Heading Home
Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy; scattered showers
Temp: 45-55 Temp: 55-57 Temp:  57-60
Wind:  SW 10-20 MPH Wind: SW 15-20 MPH Wind:  SW 15-20 MPH
Precip: 0.00” Precip: 0.00” Precip:  0.10”

 

Light showers will impact portions of the region later this afternoon.

Light showers will impact portions of the region later this afternoon.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/05/chilly-scattered-showers-highlight-your-colts-forecast/

Oct 04

October or November?!

While we may see a bit of morning sunshine, clouds will quickly return and set up a downright raw and cold day. Along with the increasing cloudiness, we’ll also note…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/04/october-or-november/

Oct 03

Cold; Rainy IndySportsReport.com High School Football Forecast…

The first of two cold fronts is moving through the region this morning. After some clearing into the early afternoon the second frontal boundary will slam into the area this…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/03/cold-rainy-indysportsreport-com-high-school-football-forecast/

Oct 01

Well-Advertised Major Changes Waiting On Deck…

Thursday will begin the major shift from relatively mild and stable weather that we’ve enjoyed for the past week and a half to one that’s drastically different, and much more resemblant of November by Saturday.

First rain drops will likely splatter on wind shields as early as the morning commute across central Indiana.

hrrr_ref_indy_16

We’ll then see a “lull” in the action through the majority of the day before more widespread showers and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms rumble in Thursday night into Friday morning.  Here’s a look at forecast radar Friday morning.

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The Storm Prediction Center does highlight western sections of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday.  We’ll continue to monitor things closely.  Localized damaging straight line wind is the primary severe threat in the highlighted risk area.

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We also want to highlight Friday afternoon and evening for another round of showers and embedded thunder.

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Rainfall totals should reach between 1″-2″ with locally heavier amounts between the period of Thursday morning and Saturday morning.

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The rain and gusty storms will fall ahead of a strong autumn cold front that will send temperatures on a rapid downward trend come Friday night.  A deep trough will carve itself out over the eastern region Saturday and ultimately have temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast feeling November-ish by Saturday (perfect football weather, IMO).

By the way, the record low max will be in jeopardy Saturday (49 degrees, courtesy of Sean Ash) as many central Indiana communities may struggle to make it out of the 40s for highs with considerable cloudiness, pesky drizzle, and gusty winds.  Have the jackets and sweaters ready, friends!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/01/well-advertised-major-changes-waiting-on-deck/

Sep 11

Ready For A True Fall Feel?!

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

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54/ 67

50/ 67

51/ 63

44/ 69

50/ 75

54/ 69

48/ 69 

Cooler Breezes Blowing…A strong cold front moved through the region last night.  You’ll notice a huge change in the air mass upon stepping out the door this morning with north winds blowing!  This will really be looked at as the first true fall cold front of the season with the coolest air in months blowing in for late week into the weekend.  Today will feature some breaks in the clouds late morning into the afternoon, but cold air advection will lead to continued mostly cloudy skies for the better part of the day.

Reinforcing Chilly Air…A reinforcing push of unseasonably chilly air will blow in Friday night into early Saturday.  A couple of light showers will be possible as the cold front passes and even cooler air will pour into the area Saturday (temperatures will remain in the 50s for a large portion of the day Saturday).

We’ll dry things out and introduce sunshine into your Sunday forecast.

Mid Week Cold Front…Another cold front will target a Tuesday evening/ Wednesday arrival (and departure :-)).  We think moisture will come at a premium with this next front so we don’t forecast any sort of heavy rain at this juncture.  Another push of cool air will move in behind the boundary.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Get ready for a MUCH cooler day! Highs today have already occurred shortly after mid night, and will struggle to top 67 later this afternoon in the city, itself. This is only the beginning of an extended stretch of cool air.

Get ready for a MUCH cooler day! Highs today have already occurred shortly after mid night, and will struggle to top 67 later this afternoon in the city, itself. This is only the beginning of an extended stretch of cool air.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/11/2563/

Sep 10

Storms Intensify Coming East

The stage is set for a stormy evening across central Indiana. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Tornado Watch for all of central Indiana until 9pm. We covered…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/10/storms-intensify-coming-east/

Sep 10

Active Weather Day

A strong fall cold front will slice into an increasingly warm and muggy air mass across our region tonight. Associated surface low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region.…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/10/active-weather-day/

Sep 02

Improving Weather Through The Day…

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

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67/ 80

60/ 83

64/ 87

69/ 89

55/ 73

49/ 73

51/ 76 

Decreasing Rain Coverage; Increasing Sunshine…A shield of moderate to heavy rain encompassed the state during the overnight.  This shield of rain is slowly moving east, southeast and we’ll be looking at improving weather through the day.  There’s still the chance of a widely scattered thunderstorm late morning or early afternoon as a frontal boundary slides through the region.

Sunny Days…As we progress through the mid and late week stretch, we’ll enjoy dry skies and plentiful sunshine.  Normal lows and highs are in the lower 60s and lower 80s this time of year, so we’ll be very close to that Wednesday before moderating temperatures take us warmer than average to wrap up the work week.

Late Week Cold Front; Autumn Feel This Weekend…A cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass Friday evening and lead to the possibility of a broken line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.  A MUCH cooler air mass will then invade the region behind the boundary, leading to a true fall-like feel this weekend!

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.50″ – 0.75″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

John Salewicz sent us this beautiful sunrise photo Saturday morning before storms invaded portions of central Indiana.  Thanks, John!

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Are you craving cooler air to go along with that early season pumpkin spice latte? You'll be in luck this weekend as a true fall-like air mass invades...

Are you craving cooler air to go along with that early season pumpkin spice latte? You’ll be in luck this weekend as a true fall-like air mass invades…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/02/improving-weather-through-the-day/

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