Jan 22
It may be briefly milder now, but we’re locked into an overall cold pattern for the foreseeable future. There are multiple opportunities for snow to go along with the cold,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/22/cold-pattern-with-multiple-opportunities-for-snow-on-the-horizon/
Jan 17
A significant winter storm will impact the region this weekend. Here’s our initial thinking where heaviest snowfall totals will occur on Saturday:
Our morning video discussion:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/17/winter-storm-inbound-this-weekend/
Dec 22
I. While we certainly aren’t talking about significant weather events between now and Christmas Day, there will be a couple of impulses of upper level energy that may be just strong enough to produce snow showers and flurries at times. We’re tracking (2) weak disturbances that stand a chance to get a couple of snow showers going Sunday evening and again Christmas Day. The one on Christmas, itself, will be a bit stronger and may have a shield of more organized precipitation- likely that would start as wet snow before transitioning to rain before ending.
II. A much stronger storm system will wrap up to our northwest Wednesday night and Thursday. We’ll notice an increasingly strong southerly breeze during this time period and rain will be on the increase as we progress through the day Thursday. The trade-off? Highs between 55° and 60° to close the week- though those temperatures may actually come Thursday evening before cooler air begins to slip in here during the day Friday.
As things stand now, both the GFS and European models, courtesy of Weathermodels.com, aren’t overly excited on rainfall amounts with this storm system, but I think they’ll trend wetter as time goes on. We’ll continue to forecast amounts between 0.50″ and 1″.
III. All attention is squarely focused on a significant pattern change that takes shape as we head into the new year. As mentioned in previous posts and discussions, the transition is likely to be a stormy one, but it’s far too early to talk precipitation types. A combination of ingredients appears to be aligning to create a colder than normal (and potentially significantly so) pattern at the traditionally coldest time of year (mid-Jan).
In the more immediate term, we note the latest GEFS showcases a classic “horse shoe” block that will favor a wintry regime across the east to open the new year- thanks to Tropicaltidbits.com.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/22/pre-christmas-weather-rambles/
Dec 20
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/20/deeper-look-into-the-long-range/
Nov 15
I. A mixture of sleet and freezing rain transitioned mostly to freezing rain during the overnight and many across central Indiana are waking up to a significant “glaze” this morning (.2″ to .3″). Power outages are growing and travel is tricky in spots. If you don’t have to travel, please remain indoors.
An Ice Storm Warning remains in place until 12p, followed by a Winter Weather Advisory until 7p.
After a “lull” in the precipitation, a burst of light snow will develop this afternoon into the early evening hours before dry conditions return tonight.
II. As we look ahead, our next weather system will scoot into the region over the weekend. This will be a weak event and we only expect a light mixture of snow and rain Saturday evening.
III. The balance of Thanksgiving week looks rather quiet, but chilly, thanks to high pressure. The stretch of below to well below normal temperatures will continue, overall.
IV. As we look ahead, the pattern sure looks cold and stormy as we open December. On that note, the majority of data continues to trend colder for the month of December, as a whole, and with high latitude blocking in place, we’d expect to see an active storm track across the country. If you like it cold and active for the holidays, you just might be in luck this year… More on that later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/11/15/waking-up-to-an-ice-storm-and-looking-at-the-rest-of-the-month/
Nov 14
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/11/14/first-winter-storm-system-of-the-season/
Oct 19
When we look forward to the overall pattern as we wrap up October and open November, we see good general agreement between the GEFS and EPS in a “blocky” look, including an eastern trough. This is a stormy signal.
European ensemble: 500mb Days 10-15. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com.
GFS ensemble: 500mb Days 10-15. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com
There will be an attempt at a significant eastern storm around Halloween- give or take a few days. The specifics associated with this storm are difficult (at best) to pin point from this distance. When thinking ahead towards Halloween, keep the potential of wet conditions, strong winds, and chilly temperatures at the forefront. Stay tuned.
What’s much more clear is that the pattern will continue to promote a colder than average feel during the period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/19/chill-forecast-to-dominate-as-we-close-october-open-november/
Mar 06
The block continues to do it’s dirty work. An active pattern will continue for the foreseeable future and models will struggle handling the all-important specifics until a couple days before the event(s)- if not the day of.
The first few days of March have gotten off to a warmer than average start, but the coming 5-10 days will run colder than average across a large portion of our region.
Perhaps of more importance, and a greater focus, locally, is the potential one of these storms will slow down and intensify into something more significant than a 12-24 hour period of snow showers and squalls. The first contender arrives over the upcoming weekend, but with this being 4-5 days out, confidence remains low.
We note the latest GFS continues to “string out” the energy. The end result would be the potential of some mixed rain and snow showers late weekend into early in the work week, but nothing much more than that.
However, it’s important to understand model biases from this distance. So often, the GFS can rush things along in the medium range, only to later correct as time draws closer. If things slow, the associated energy will merge and result in the possibility of a significant, if not major, late-winter storm for portions of the Ohio Valley. As it is, a few of the GEFS ensemble members show this potential.
Unfortunately, there’s no way to be more specific from this distance. It’s easy to see both arguments (for and against a more significant storm) from this point, but with high latitude blocking in place (an ingredient missing most of the time from this winter, and several of the past few winters), we most certainly need to keep close tabs on subsequent model runs. Long-time Hoosiers remember when storms of significance actually did, indeed, impact the area. 🙂
It won’t take much in this pattern for things to slow down enough for a non event to become a big event…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/06/weekend-mischief/
Mar 06
I. Upper level energy will pinwheel across the region tonight into Wednesday and result in helping rain showers (this afternoon and evening) transition to snow showers (tonight and Wednesday).
A couple of heavier snow squalls could result in a quick coating to less than 1″ of snow for some areas overnight into Wednesday.
II. The next item we continue to monitor has to do with an initial piece of energy that will scoot across the Ohio Valley Friday. This is ahead of a more significant storm that will likely develop over the weekend and models continue to fluctuate on how they handle things. For now, we’ll maintain a rain/ snow mix Friday, but simply can’t get more specific than that. There are ways this could deposit a stripe of accumulating wet snow for some of the region, but it’s premature to try and nail down where this may occur.
III. We also have to continue to keep a close eye on what transpires Sunday. We favor one surface low tracking along the Ohio River into the Appalachians before a secondary low takes over along the Mid Atlantic coastline Monday. Again, a swath of wet snow north of the low’s track Sunday into early Monday.
IV. While we should see warmth eject out of the southern Plains in the Week 2 time frame, the large majority of data says this will only be temporary and that cooler than normal temperatures will persist through the balance of the upcoming several weeks. With late season high latitude blocking in place it’s hard to disagree with that idea. Once blocking sets up (especially late in the season), it can be like “pulling teeth” to get any sort of sustained warmth. Just an idea here.
Courtesy of weathermodels.com
Courtesy of weathermodels.com
Courtesy of weathermodels.com
Courtesy of weathermodels.com
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/06/tuesday-morning-rambles-snow-arrives-tonight-tricky-weekend/
Feb 28
2018 is already flying! As we welcome in March here are the weather statistics for IND (Indianapolis).
Before we look forward to March, let’s review where we’ve been in February. After a very cold start to the month, eastern ridging really flexed it’s muscle and resulted in spring-like conditions for the better part of the past couple weeks. As we type this up late on the 28th, IND is running 5° warmer than average. (It’s been a wet month, too, as we’re close to 2.5″ above normal in the precipitation department).
The early spring “fling” has lulled many into believing winter’s finished. While the worst of the winter is certainly behind us, we continue to think a dose of “reality” awaits as we progress through the better part of the first half of March. To be more specific, we feel the period March 6th through the 20th will offer up below average temperatures and an active pattern- capable of producing wintry threats.
We note the (2) main drivers this time of year (the AO and NAO) are running negative through mid-month, which favors cold.
Sure enough, modeling is going to the pattern that will produce below normal temperatures (doesn’t appear to be anything particularly frigid, but colder than average, nonetheless) through mid-month.
With blocking in place, an undercutting jet will serve to deliver an active storm track.
Keeping in mind March winter events need multiple items to come together to create impactful situations, it’s also important not to simply “buy in” to the idea that just because it’s been warm lately that winter is finished. March can be a wild month, as long-time Hoosiers are aware. The pattern we’re heading into over the next 10-14 days is one that’s been void most of the winter (high latitude blocking in place) and can serve as the player needed to flip a “nuisance” variety late-winter event to one that’s much more significant. We’ll need to remain on guard for the potential of one or two “more significant” wintry events as we move through the first couple weeks of the month.
Finally, looking ahead, there’s an argument that can be made that we flip the script towards milder times through the last (10) days, or so, of March. We note (as shown above) the AO and NAO trend neutral-to-positive mid and late March. Secondly, the EPO is also expected to flip positive for the second half of the month and this is warm signal, locally, as shown. Majority of guidance also takes the MJO into the “null” phase late month.
The end result is one that should promote colder than average times over the next couple weeks, overall, along with an active storm track. With blocking in place, the potential of one or two more significant late-winter events are on the table, and we’ll have to fine tune specifics as the individual storms come. While confidence is high that someone within the Ohio Valley region is likely to still deal with a big-hitter event, there’s no way to get specific until the individual players are on the field. Thereafter, the pattern should begin to transition to one more conducive for “stick and hold” spring conditions during the latter portion of the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/28/here-comes-march-what-were-saying-and-what-we-arent/