Updated 01.09.24 @ 7:53a Burning the midnight oil and having plenty of coffee on hand is the only way to navigate this pattern over the course of the next week.…
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We open this evening by taking a look at the latest ensemble charts, courtesy of today’s 12z European run. While there’s simply no way of being able to guarantee the upcoming 10-day’s worth of snow in one single back yard, long suffering folks of significant winter weather across not only central Indiana, but a widespread chunk of the Ohio Valley, couldn’t ask for a more classic pattern.
First, the textbook high latitude blocking kicks off the active storm track and then bitterly cold, arctic air pours into the eastern portion of the country. Signs of this potential blocking and storminess were starting to show themselves back in the latter part of the summer. We added a couple of those analogs into building this year’s winter outlook, including the potential of blocking. By the way, it was back in January of 2019 when Indianapolis last recorded our last double digit below zero temperature (11F below zero). I still like our chances of getting into that territory between the 14th and 18th. Wind chill values will likely be much colder.
Now, back to the present. We don’t have any changes regarding tonight and predawn Tuesday. A “thump” of heavy wet snow, mixed with sleet will make for messy travel north of I-70 towards 11p to midnight, continuing into the predawn. Thankfully this will arrive when most are off the roads, but just a heads up if you have late night travel, expect slick conditions starting around 11p, or so. In fact, some of the latest guidance suggests IND may be looking at 1″/ hr snow rates during the onset of this precipitation late evening. Northern ‘burbs, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to accumulate a quick 2″ to 3″ of wet snow and then some sleet before the transition to rain predawn. Even though we’ll all be dealing with a wind-whipped cold rain by daybreak, those living from the northern ‘burbs and points north should expect slushy and slick conditions for the AM commute.
After a brief milder surge and continued gusty winds during the daytime Tuesday, colder air will wrap back into the region allowing rain to transition to light snow tomorrow night, continuing into Wednesday morning. Additional slick spots are likely for the Wednesday morning commute, though late tonight and early Tuesday will likely be more problematic north.
Attention then shifts to our late week winter storm. While I have a hard time seeing the incredibly potent GFS solution verifying, I do like the stronger low pressure options (when compared to the flatter wave idea). – Always have to watch out for rapidly strengthening lows that like to cut up west of the mountains when you get the true arctic branch diving in with the expected trajectory currently modeled. Bottom line, at this distance we don’t see any need to deviate from the idea of rain to start, switching to a wind-whipped snow event, complete with plummeting temperatures and strong, potentially damaging, winds. I’d plan on additional travel impacts late week into the weekend.
The “big cold” follows behind this storm and then we’ll eye the opportunity for additional snow next week…
Updated 01.08.24 @ 7:54a One storm after another will impact our region through the next couple weeks, eventually followed by bitterly cold, arctic air. We’ll have to take each storm…
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Updated 01.06.24 @ 7:57a An area-wide 1.5″ to 2.5″ (locally heavier) snow is greeting folks early this Saturday morning. It’s the type of wet snow that truly gives that winter…
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When: Overnight tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Temperatures: Lower 30s
Wind: E 10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH across southeastern IN. Shifting to the north Wednesday PM.
Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal due to the wet nature of the snow
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.
Summary: Central Indiana remains on deck for a heavy snow storm that will begin late tonight across southern IN, reaching the city itself, between 1a and 2a. Snow will quickly become heavy at times, including rates of over 1″ per hour. Needless to say, area roadways, including primary roads, will quickly become snow covered. Latest guidance is also suggesting embedded convective snow bands (thunder snow is not out of the question) will pivot into the city and surrounding areas, especially just west and north, mid and late morning. This “deformation band” will likely lead to jackpot totals approaching double-digits, and we’ve beefed our snowfall forecast up to account for these bands. “System” snow will end from southwest to northeast as we progress through the afternoon. We’ll then await on upper level energy to deliver additional light to moderate snow at times Thursday (additional light accumulation can be expected). Buckle up, there’s additional winter weather to follow…
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While not “overly cold” (at least yet), we’re heading into a special pattern for snow/ winter weather lovers. After the leading wave of accumulating snow over the weekend, a much more “meaningful” storm eyes the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday.
In short, we don’t have any changes to our thinking since Saturday on this storm. Snow will lift in here from the south during the overnight and become heavy throughout the morning hours. Snowfall rates will likely approach, if not exceed, 1″ per hour during this time period and will lead to a horrendous morning rush all throughout the region. If you don’t absolutely have to travel, we recommend staying put. Embedded intense snow bands will likely pivot into the city throughout the morning, elevating those snowfall rates and reducing visibility.
Heaviest snow looks to fall in the 2a to 11a timeframe in the city, itself. This will be a wet, heavy (paste-like) snow.
We still don’t see a reason to alter our ongoing snowfall forecast published first to Clients Saturday. This is only for the Tuesday night-Wednesday period and doesn’t account for additional light snow accumulation that will take place Thursday into Friday. Needless to say, there will likely be some across central Indiana that close in on double-digit storm totals by the time all is said and done.
And just as soon as we catch our breath from this storm, attention will turn to the following winter weather makers:
A clipper system that will scoot through the Great Lakes region Friday. This will likely lead to a period of more concentrated, albeit light, snow Friday PM. Additional light snow accumulation is possible across central and northern IN during this time period.
2. Another southern stream system approaches Saturday evening. While milder air will be present (at least aloft), it’s also very possible the modeling will be forced to correct colder after realizing what kind of deep snowpack will likely be deposited across the region midweek. Long story short, we feel this storm system will also be capable of producing a wintry mix of snow and/ or sleet and freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday. Additional details will have to be sorted out in more specific fashion after midweek.
Thereafter, with the negative PNA and negative EPO in place, we’re likely to deal with additional wintry “fun and games” into the middle and latter part of next week, but with this being more than 7 days out, there’s no reason getting too excited from this point with specifics.
Needless to say, we’re in about as good of a position as one could ask for accumulating winter weather events in the medium range period. We’ll just have to take one storm at a time.
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