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Category: Heavy Rain
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May 28
No Rest For The Weary…
Active weather will continue as we move through mid and late week. A cold front currently north of the region will slowly move south into central Indiana before stalling out and lifting back north as a warm front Thursday. This will serve as a focal point for additional thunderstorm development over the next few days.
With a warm and moist environment in place, along with enough instability and forcing, storms may become strong to severe at times. While the setup the next couple of days doesn’t appear as favorable for tornadoes (when compared to yesterday), all modes of severe weather will be possible with the stronger storms. (Always have to be leery with a warm front nearby).
Periods of more concentrated storms can be expected this evening into Wednesday morning and again Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. In addition to a strong thunderstorm threat, locally heavy rain is a good bet.
There is hope that we will be able to work drier air into the region over the upcoming weekend, helping to reduce rain chances between Sunday and next Tuesday. Let’s keep our fingers crossed…
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May 25
VIDEO: Detailed Short-Term Analysis Of Storm Threats; Discussing The Long Range Pattern Into The 1st Half Of June…
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May 20
VIDEO: Pleasant Open To The Work Week; Discussing MJO Implications Into June…
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May 17
Sudden “Stick And Hold” Summer? Think Again…
The upcoming couple of weeks sure will feel like summer has arrived. After “pulling teeth” to get any sort of sustained warmth, the flip to warm/ hot and humid conditions is upon us.
This kind of pattern will keep heaviest rain to our northwest, but that’s not to say we won’t deal with storm complexes from time to time that will be plenty capable of depositing a quick hefty amount of water in a short period (case in point yesterday evening).
As we look ahead, the MJO continues to look like it’ll roll right into Phase 1 as we get set to close May and open June. This should ultimately mean the eastern ridge is replaced with more troughiness (may be tough to erode the southeastern ridge- where anomalous heat will likely continue for the foreseeable future) and an associated cooler pattern as we move towards early-June across our region.
As this transition takes shape, the heaviest precipitation totals will likely shift east, including more of our immediate region, as we progress through late-May and into early June. The modeling sees this taking shape nicely.
Though we’ll likely back away from the anomalous warmth and replace things will cooler air as we move into the half-way point of the year, the same ole song and dance is expected from a precipitation perspective: wetter than average, and, at times, excessively so…
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