Mar 11
1.) We don’t really have any changes to the going snowfall accumulation forecast we have out concerning Wednesday. We think Indianapolis accumulates 2″, with heavier amounts north of the city…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/11/catching-up-after-a-day-outside-enjoying-this-weather/
Feb 19
* Your complete 7-Day forecast can be found below this post.
We continue to monitor things closely Thursday as a busy day is on tap. Thunderstorms will initially blow into the region Thursday morning as a warm front lifts north through central Indiana. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and vivid lightning.
We’ll then get into a much warmer south wind (gusting up to 30 MPH) and watch radar trends closely to our west. We’re still very concerned for a squall line plowing east through the region Thursday evening. Time of greatest concern lies between 5PM and 8PM for this line, but we caution timing may have to be adjusted after looking over evening data. Damaging straight line winds are of the greatest concern Thursday evening, along with torrential rainfall.
Following the squall line, we’re also concerned for strong and potentially damaging northwest winds Thursday night, gusting up to 50 MPH, as low pressure rapidly deepens moving into the Great Lakes.
Bullet Point Thoughts You Need To Know For Thursday
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/19/active-thursday-ahead/
Feb 18
|
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
35/ 50 |
36/ 60 |
29/ 43 |
29/ 39 |
21/ 35 |
17/ 28 |
16/ 24 |
|
0.00” |
0.75″-1.00″ |
0.00” |
Trace |
Trace |
0.00″ |
Accumulating snow? |
Forecast Updated: 02.19.14 @ 8:00a
One More Calm Day…A weak front blew through early Wednesday and produced a light shower for southeast parts of the state. Sunshine will return Wednesday along with a blustery northwest wind. It’ll be another mild day.
Concern For Flooding And Severe…With continued melting of a deep snow pack, combined with around an inch of rain (most of which falls within a 3 hour time period Thursday) and the stage will certainly be set for flooding. In fact, we remain very concerned for flooding Thursday. If you live in a flood prone area, please prepare to seek higher ground Thursday as flood waters rise.
The second concern is a severe potential Thursday evening. While the greatest threat for severe weather will remain south and east of our immediate region, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of damaging straight line wind gusts Thursday evening. The greatest threat lies between 5PM and 8PM Thursday as a line of thunderstorms pushes east through the state. Again, damaging straight line winds, in excess of 60 MPH, is our greatest concern at present time. Stay tuned. Drier and much colder air will roar in behind the front Thursday night on strong and gusty northwest winds.
Weak Weekend Disturbances…A couple of fast moving disturbances will pass through the region this weekend and could spark scattered snow showers in the much colder air.
Accumulating Snow Early Next Week…Model data continues to struggle in the mid range handling energy coming east before what continues to look like a big blast of arctic air to wrap up February. As of now, we’re targeting Tuesday for best chances of accumulating snow, but stress this a low confidence forecast in regards to timing at present. Stay tuned.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/18/focus-on-mid-week-flood-storm-threat/
Feb 16
1.) A scan over the latest data continues to point towards an absolute mess of a Monday afternoon. Our accumulation ideas remain relatively unchanged from this morning’s update, aside from “beefing” expected snow totals for Indy’s northern ‘burbs by 1″. Most of this falls from noon to 6pm and will be followed by a dry, cold, and blustery Monday night. After likely a white-nuckle evening commute Monday, the combination of sub-freezing temperatures and gusty northwest winds Monday night will likely lead to another rough commute for Tuesday morning.
** We caution that this will be another “now cast” situation when it comes to precipitation types and their respected precise zones tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned here or to your favorite local weather media for updates and potential changes.**
2.) We continue to monitor what will be a brief thaw and associated flood risk mid week. Even without rain, water rise would occur and urban flooding from the combination of melting snow and blocked (from all of the snow) drainage zones. When you add 0.50-1″ of rain atop the melting then problems could arise Wednesday into Thursday. Additionally, we’ll need to prepare for the likelihood of dense fog Wednesday as milder air surges north over a deep snow pack.
3.) For anyone thinking spring is setting in during our mid week thaw will need to think again. Latest model data continues to suggest we reverse things quickly later this week and for the upcoming weekend. In fact, some model data, including the European, suggests central Indiana is under the gun for a weekend winter storm. We’ll continue to monitor closely…
4.) Additionally, prospects continue to grow for another extended period of well below normal cold and renewed wintry precipitation chances in the long term (into March). Both the GFS and European models are in agreement on the mid to long range pattern with a trough settling back into the eastern half of the country.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/16/sunday-afternoon-thoughts/
Feb 16
|
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16/ 25 |
15/ 33 |
20/ 39 |
24/ 42 |
35/ 57 |
28/ 45 |
28/ 50 |
|
0.00” |
1-3″ (and ice) |
0.00” |
Trace |
0.50″-1.00″ |
0.00″ |
0.00” |
Forecast Updated 02.16.14 @ 11:15a
Cold Sunday…Fresh off celebrating our snowiest winter on record (surpassed last night at IND at 51.6″ and the Record Event Report can be found here), we’ll enjoy a dry day, but blowing and drifting snow will remain an issue in the open country. A few breaks in the cloud cover can be expected this afternoon on what will otherwise be a rather cloudy day. Highs will only climb into the lower to middle 20s (well below the average high of 40 and closer to the normal low of 24). Yes, our cold, snowy winter just keeps on keepin’ on!
Snow And Ice Issues Monday…A storm system will move through the region Monday and deliver a mixture of precipitation types across central Indiana. The way we see things unfolding as of this forecast update brings a wintry mix of sleet and snow into the city around noon with periods of moderate to even heavy wintry precipitation falling into the mid to late afternoon hours before we begin to see the shield of moisture push northeast. This will be a “thump and go” type event.
As for precipitation type, this remains a challenge and will require much fine tuning later tonight and through the day tomorrow (another now cast scenario). We’re thinking mostly snow is the dominant form of precipitation from the northern suburbs of Indianapolis and points north. Here, 2-3″ of wet snow is possible, polished off with a light glaze of a freezing rain/sleet mixture before precipitation ends. For the city, itself, we think around 1-2″ of snow is possible with a glaze of freezing rain of around a tenth of an inch. Farther south, to include the southern Indianapolis suburbs, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will be the concern with glaze potential approaching one quarter inch. Again, we caution this is our best idea at this point and we’ll post some fresh thoughts later this evening.
Needless to say, tomorrow stands to include treacherous driving conditions in and around central Indiana and the National Weather Service will likely issue Winter Weather/ Freezing Rain Advisories later this afternoon to account for the wintry conditions anticipated tomorrow afternoon.
Flooding Concerns On The Rise…With such a deep snowpack across central Indiana, combined with a frozen ground, flooding concerns will be on the rise as early as the middle to latter part of the week. We think dry and chilly (albeit milder) conditions will be with us Tuesday, but low clouds, fog, and drizzle likely develop by Wednesday as milder air streams north over the snowpack locked in across the region.
By Thursday, our attention turns to the potential of heavy rain and a couple of thunderstorms as a cold front blows through the region. Early ideas of Thursday rainfall numbers would suggest anywhere from .50-1″ of rain is laid down and when combined with the heavy snow pack and milder air, flooding concerns will certainly be present. Needless to say, if you live in a flood prone area, please monitor the situation closely later this week.
Winter Blows Back In…As promised, the briefly milder shot of air would be just that- brief. We continue to monitor data that suggests a colder, more wintry, pattern blows right back into the region to wrap up February.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/16/cold-today-messy-monday-ahead/
Feb 12
There’s no doubt we’re looking at a brief pattern change next week that will result in air temperatures that will have many of you craving spring. That said, the key word in that sentence is “brief” and a colder, more wintry pattern looks to return to wrap up February and head into March.
Before we discuss the return of the cold and potentially wintry regime for late month, let’s focus on the milder conditions. Data suggests we may be looking at highs zooming all the way into the lower to middle 60s towards the 20th-23rd time period. The spring tease is likely to come at a cost as the milder southerly breezes likely result in lots of dense fog and areas of drizzle as a deep snowpack remains locked in place. Flooding concerns may also become a concern next week, especially if we inject moderate to heavy rain into the region. 10-day rainfall numbers do have to make us a little nervous as a blend of model data suggests 1″-1.5″ down between now and the 22nd. We’ll continue to monitor things.
Finally, it should be noted that while a brief “relaxation” of the seemingly unending winter is on the way, the long term pattern continues to suggest a cold and wintry time of things continues overall. Next week appears to be an “island of warmth in a sea of cold” type pattern. Latest ensemble data continues to back this idea up. That’s not saying we’re going to deal with the type of severe cold we’ve seen over the past several weeks, but instead means we’re going to go back below normal as we get set to wrap up February and head into March.
The latest GFS ensembles show the evolution of things well. The “double secret probation” European model also shows something similar.
Note the ridge and associated spring “tease” is replaced with a cold and more wintry looking eastern trough rather quickly. Circle the 24th on your calendar for the potential of a widespread storm system. Far too early for details or questions, but the pattern looks to produce some busy times around this point. Before that we have plenty of weather in front of us to deal with… weekend snow opportunities, foggy/ drizzly weather to accompany the initial surge of milder air next week, and a spring tease by late next week!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/12/next-weeks-spring-tease-is-just-that-a-tease/
Dec 21
Widespread rainfall totals are approaching 1″-2″ since the rain begin Friday across central Indiana. When you look at the big-scale radar picture (snapped shortly after 8 o’clock this morning), you can understand the concern that’s ahead later this evening into Sunday, from a flooding perspective.
Latest projected rainfall numbers remain very consistent on the message we’ve been passing off to you, the viewer, for a few days now…widespread 3″-4″ totals, with locally heavier amounts.
We think steady moderate to heavy rains continue for the better part of the day, but we note our short term, high-resolution, models targeting this afternoon and overnight for some extreme rainfall rates to develop. Here’s a look at the simulated radar valid 7pm this evening:
When you consider the snow melt and the rain that will have already fallen by this point, the stage is set for a very dangerous overnight flooding situation. Flooding any time of the day is dangerous, but particularly so at night. If you live in a flood prone area, PLEASE make sure to have a plan in place and consider perhaps spending the night with family or friends tonight as rapid water rise is certain to occur.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/21/dangerous-flood-event-developing/
Dec 20
Before we go into the cold pattern that is looming, our current forecast of severe flooding developing across central Indiana this weekend remains. Our projected precipitation numbers remain in the 3-4″ range for most of central Indiana, but there will be some higher totals reported. Combine that with the recent snow melt and the stage is set for potentially a severe and dangerous flooding event.
As we look ahead to the next weather “challenge,” it has to do with temperatures. As we’ve talked about in previous posts, our weather pattern flipped to one that has been predominantly colder than normal back in the middle of October. Despite a handful of days, cold has dominated the pattern. Before our current thaw temperatures were averaging 5 degrees below normal for the month of December. While the recent thaw is certain to reduce the anomalous cold, the last week of December could send us right back to readings much colder than average, helping put the exclamation point on the month as far as cold goes.
The latest 8-10 day ensemble plots showcase a very cold pattern to end December. Cross polar flow gets involved, helping lead to some bitterly cold air around these parts. We note excellent agreement between the GFS and European forecast models, helping to further increase our confidence in the cold pattern ahead.
But it doesn’t stop there… We note long range data suggesting this cold pattern continues well into January.
The latest European forecast ensembles showcase the cold continuing to reload into the first week of the month. This is an impressively cold look, considering we’re still a couple weeks out and that these are a multitude of individual computer model runs averaged together to come up with this solution.
As we watch the evolution of the cold pattern, it’s important to turn to the “goings-on” with the upper air pattern. Note the reorganization of the polar vortex and, equally as important, the placement of the polar vortex. For the purpose of giving you a couple of different viewpoints of the evolution of the pattern we’ve pasted a Northern Hemisphere and North America perspective.
Note how the polar vortex reorganizes itself and decides to set up shop over Hudson Bay and Baffin Island by early January. This is significant in that it promotes multiple reinforcing shots of arctic air into the eastern half of the country and backs up what the data above would suggest in the cold pattern that appears to be looming as we move forward…
Sunday, December 22nd
Friday, January 3rd
What does all of this mean? That the current “thaw” is very brief. The seeds were being planted for a return of the cold pattern earlier this week and it all begins Sunday night. As the data above would suggest, the arctic cold appears to reinforce itself as we go through time and an overall prolonged colder than normal pattern appears to be setting itself up.
Additionally, we’ll have to handle winter storm systems as they come (and they will), but the pattern is one that very well may promote fast-moving clipper systems moving southeast out of Canada. While most of these clipper systems don’t drop tremendous snowfall totals, the more potent clippers can deposit several inches of snow and serve to “feed back” and turn what’s initially a cold, dry pattern into one that’s suddenly snowy. We’ll keep an eye on that. Furthermore, the southern stream may also decide to add a little “excitement” into our forecast late December or early January.
Needless to say, there’s a lot of weather to talk about in the days ahead…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/20/colder-than-normal-pattern-set-to-return/
Dec 20
A scan over multiple computer models this morning shows that forecast models remain consistent of the idea of a weekend deluge across central Indiana. Unfortunately, when combined with the snow melt, if even the numbers are half right, we’ll have to deal with significant flooding this weekend, especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Here’s a look at the data. We average multiple computer models together to come up with our precipitation forecasts (both rain and snow) that you see in our daily 7-Day Video Forecasts (available to the right of this post).
Needless to say, when looking over all of the data above, we still feel confident in the forecast we have out…widespread 3-4″ rainfall with locally heavier totals. Preparations should have already begun if you live, or work, in a flood prone area, but if not, please do so today. The question remains not if we’ll see flooding, but how severe the flooding will be.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/20/model-data-not-backing-down-on-flooding-rains-ahead/
Dec 19
As always, your latest 7-Day Video Forecast can be found to the right in the video player. 1.) A milder southerly air flow allowed us to remain above freezing…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/19/thursday-morning-weather-rambles/
