Category: Heavy Rain

May 08

Smorgasbord Of Weather!

Posts this weekend will be a bit “off schedule” as I celebrate my brother’s graduation.  That said, posts will hit the site over the weekend and we’ll also keep you updated on our Twitter feed- @indywx.  A busy time of things lies ahead and a very active weather pattern will carry us into this time next week.  Let’s get into some of the details!

1.) (2) rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely Friday.  Weakening showers and embedded thunder will dissipate moving into central Indiana Friday morning.  That said, depending on the amount of clearing that takes place behind the first wave of showers and storms will go a long way into determining the severity of round two Friday evening.  The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) continues to highlight our area for a Slight Risk of severe weather (primary threats are large hail and damaging straight line winds) Friday evening.  We also note the latest high resolution NAM simulated radar shows potential strong to severe thunderstorms moving in tomorrow evening.

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2.) A second heavy rain and storm maker will arrive early next week. The Gulf of Mexico is open for business and suggests some locally heavy downpours are a good bet with both storms.  This isn’t bad news as it’s been dry as of late.  We’re now on day 9 without measurable precipitation and that will be changing in a big way over the upcoming 7 day period.  Widespread 2″-2.5″ rains are a good bet over the upcoming week, including some locally heavier totals.

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The detailed video discussion below covers more on the severe chances, heavy rain threat, and a much cooler pattern ahead!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/08/smorgasbord-of-weather/

May 07

Summer-Like Today & Thursday; Storms By Friday.

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58/ 86

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The warmest air of the year so far will blow in to the region today and Thursday.  We forecast mid to upper 80s both days, alongside a strong southwest wind.  Things then will turn more active to close the work week with showers and thunderstorms Friday, including the slight risk of severe weather (large hail and damaging straight line winds are the early threats).  The cold front will essentially wash out over the area this weekend keeping unsettled weather around.  That said, it won’t rain the entire time Saturday and Sunday and we’ll enjoy more dry hours than wet hours.  A stronger cold front promises more heavy rain and a renewed severe threat early next week before a MUCH cooler push of air arrives late next week.

Video discussing today’s custom built IndyWx.com Forecast issued at 7:23am:

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/07/summer-like-today-storms-by-friday/

Apr 28

Monday Night Severe Weather Update.

Good evening and welcome in to IndyWx.com!

We continue to closely monitor radar and satellite trends tonight and keep a close eye on severe developments to our west.  As the video discusses, the clouds and rain from earlier today have helped in a big way from at least limiting what today “could have been” from a severe perspective.

That’s not saying we’re signaling the all-clear by any stretch of the imagination, it’s just saying that the clouds and rain from earlier have helped to keep us from really destabilizing the local atmosphere and the clearing we’re seeing now may be too little too late in regards to widespread severe weather here.

All of that said, keep a close eye on local radar tonight and remain weather aware.  The dynamics at play could result in a thunderstorm turning severe rather rapidly tonight and we’ll continue to closely monitor.

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will impact central Indiana during the overnight period:

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The video below has more details:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/28/monday-night-severe-weather-update/

Apr 25

Nice Weekend Before A Prolonged Rainy/ Stormy Stretch…

A mostly dry and warm weekend is underway.  The Friday afternoon sunshine we enjoyed is a preview of what the majority of the weekend will provide.  We note the threat of a scattered shower or storm across northern portions of the state during the predawn hours Saturday and across central portions of the state (including Indianapolis) during the predawn hours Sunday. That said, in both cases, most will remain rain-free.

The big event is still slated for a late Sunday night arrival.  Low pressure will sit and spin across the Plains states Saturday into Sunday.  While we stay mostly dry, a major severe weather outbreak will likely unfold across this area during the day Saturday and again Sunday.

Better chances of rain and thunderstorms will arrive across central Indiana late Sunday night.  Some of these storms may be strong, but we think it’s more in the Monday and Tuesday time frame where we really need to be on our toes in regards to severe potential.  At this juncture, it appears as if all modes of severe weather will be in play across the region, including tornadoes, hail, and damaging straight line winds.  An enhanced risk of severe weather will lie across southern portions of the state.

The Days 4 and 5 severe weather outlook from the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) will likely be expanded north as we move forward.day48prob

Forecast radar from some of our high resolution model data suggests thunderstorms begin to rumble into the state as early as Sunday night.

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Eventually, this big spring storm will begin to weaken and turn into a large closed off upper level low pressure system. This promises a MUCH cooler stretch here mid to late next week along with continued unsettled conditions, with periods of showers and blustery northwest winds.  In fact, IND very well record measurable precipitation every day Sunday through next Saturday…

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After a warm weekend and early week, note the colder air moving in to wrap up April and open May. Temperatures are moving in the wrong direction.  Highs by the mid to latter part of next week will only make it into the lower 50s some days.  The first week of May looks much cooler than average.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/25/nice-weekend-before-a-prolonged-rainy-stormy-stretch/

Apr 25

Clearing And Windy After Morning Rain…

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52/ 65

48/ 72

46/ 70

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60/ 76

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43/ 58

Light

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Light

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Video discussing today’s custom built IndyWx.com Forecast issued at 7:44am:

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/25/clearing-and-windy-after-morning-rain/

Apr 22

Lots Of Weather To Talk About…

There are growing concerns about quite the rainy and cold close to April and open to May. We’ll discuss that in a bit. The month so far has been cold…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/22/lots-of-weather-to-talk-about/

Apr 09

Will Thursday Be The Day?

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44/ 70

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Custom IndyWx.com Forecast Updated 04.09.14 @ 6:26p

Making The Push For 70. . .Thursday should be our first 70 degree day of 2014.  While clouds will be on the increase through the afternoon, we should enjoy enough of a southwest breeze and sunshine early in the day to allow temperatures to reach the 70 degree mark for afternoon highs.

We do note a frontal boundary that will move through the region Thursday evening, and this will be capable of producing a round of quick-hitting showers and a possible rumble of thunder.  Rainfall amounts will be light.  We think drier air will allow for increasing amounts of sunshine as we go through your Friday.

Warm, Mostly Pleasant Weekend. . .Most of Saturday will be rain free, but we’ll introduce the threat of a scattered shower Saturday afternoon as moisture begins to return.  Similar to that of Thursday, we’ll make yet another push at the 70 degree mark before clouds and rain chances begin to put a lid on the temperature climb.

While Sunday will feature better rain chances, it won’t be a wash out by any stretch of the imagination.  We certainly don’t recommend canceling any outdoor activities this weekend; just keep the umbrella handy should you have to dodge a thundershower.

Better Rain; Storm Chances. . .Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin to ramp up as we go into Sunday night into Monday.  Modeling continues to struggle in terms of the precise details of our early week events, but we’re confident on a round of rain and potential gusty thunderstorms before a cooler surge of air invades Monday night and Tuesday.  Stay tuned as we’ll have a good deal of fine tuning to do for the Sunday night-Monday night forecast.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

twicFor weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/09/will-thursday-be-the-day/

Apr 08

Taste Of True Spring Coming, But Another Shot Of Winter On Deck…

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Custom IndyWx.com Forecast Updated 04.09.14 @ 8:31a

Sunshine Returns; Warming Up. . .Instability-driven thundershowers developed Tuesday afternoon across central Indiana and even produced small hail in a few locations, especially east of the city.  Thankfully though the sunshine we experienced Tuesday evening is a sign of things to come for the mid week stretch.  We forecast a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky both today and Thursday, along with moderating temperatures.

A strong southwest breeze will help usher in potentially the first 70 degree day of the year Thursday.  We also note winds may gust upwards of 30 MPH (especially in the open country) Thursday afternoon.

Late Week Front. . .A cold front will move through the region during the day Friday.  Latest model data suggests a little more moisture will be available than we thought earlier this week and as a result we’ll hit the shower and potential thundershower chance a little harder Friday.  Anywhere from 0.25-0.50 of rain will be possible with this system as it moves through the area.

Watching The Weekend. . .While Friday’s front will only make it so far south, we’re still thinking Saturday will be rain-free for the majority of central Indiana.  We’ll note the threat of a shower down state and keep a close eye on things, but for now we’ll keep Saturday’s forecast dry and warm.  Get out there and enjoy a beautiful day!

Our next storm system will take aim on the region Sunday.  As such, clouds will increase and shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the rise as we go through the day.  We do note a rather large range in model forecast temperatures Sunday between the middle 70s per the European data to the lower 60s per the GFS.  For now, we’ll split the difference and forecast upper 60s Sunday with increasing rain chances as we progress through the day.  Stay tuned.

Brief, But Potent Blast Of Winter Chill. . .Another significant rain maker will blow through the region Sunday night into Monday.  At this early stage in the game, there’s a rather high probability of moderate to heavy rainfall (greater than 1″), but the bigger story will likely be the blast of winter-like chill that will invade next Monday night into Tuesday.  In fact, there may be just enough moisture lingering to result in some light snow or flurries Tuesday as the cold air pours in.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

twicFor weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/08/taste-of-true-spring-coming-but-another-shot-of-winter-on-deck/

Apr 06

A Raw Open To The Work Week…

Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun.               41/ 45 35/ 54 32/ 55 40/ 70 50/ 63 42/ 70 55/ 69 Moderate Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/06/a-raw-open-to-the-work-week/

Apr 06

Enjoy Today; More Rain Ahead!

We’ll wrap up the weekend with sunshine, though clouds will be on the increase later this afternoon.  This is all part of the next storm system that will deliver moderate rainfall amounts here to open up the new work week.  Additionally, winds will be strong and gusty Monday along with cooler temperatures.  All-in-all, it’ll be a raw, nasty Monday.

Clouds are already increasing across southern portions of the state this morningir0.

 

 

 

 

 

Rain and embedded thunder is blossoming over the Ark-la-tex region and southeast.

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As we go through time, a sunny start here will cloud up by the afternoon and evening.  All the same, it’ll be a very nice day with highs reaching the upper 50s.

Low pressure that’s currently organizing along the Texas Gulf Coast region will lift northeast and strengthen.  This will produce our rainy and windy Monday into Tuesday.

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Rainfall totals will average around an inch for central portions of the state Monday and model data ranges from 0.50-1.78″.

The high resolution NAM model suggests 0.80-1.00″.

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After a wet open to the work week, high pressure will build in and supply a pleasant rest of the week, including the opportunity we may hit our first 70 degree day of the year Thursday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/06/enjoy-today-more-rain-ahead/

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