Nov 24
Low pressure is really wrapping up over the Great Lakes region this morning. Talk about fresh water fury… A byproduct of such strong low pressure is evident in the expansive…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/24/fresh-water-fury/
Oct 14
More rain is in the forecast today and Wednesday as a big, slow moving autumn storm system takes its time moving through the region. Additional rain the next 36 hours…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/14/tuesday-morning-rambles-rain-dry-time-and-frost/
Oct 13
It’s a wet and stormy start for many this morning. Despite some local downpours and embedded thunder, all of this morning’s storms will remain below severe levels. Periods of showers…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/13/stormy-times-today-severe-weather-tonight/
Oct 09
While rain and chilly air are the headlines as we wrap up the work week and open another important college football weekend (my anticipation is building rapidly for my beloved Tigers taking on a dangerous MS. State squad Saturday afternoon- WAR EAGLE, btw), our attention is continuing to focus in on the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning across the region.
Forecast models continue to suggest strengthening low pressure will track northeast from MO into IL and MI Monday night into Tuesday morning.
The region will briefly get into a warm and humid environment Monday and Monday night (plenty capable of fueling strong to severe thunderstorm development). Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
A ribbon of precipitable water values will approach 2″ across the state Monday night. This supports heavy and locally flash flood producing rainfall. Forecast models continue to key on additional Monday-Tuesday rainfall in the 1-2″+ range.
We’ll continue to closely monitor the data as we move forward, but at this early juncture, make a mental note to be weather-aware Monday night into Tuesday morning as strong to severe thunderstorm potential develops.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/09/carefully-watching-monday-night-tuesday-for-storm-potential/
Oct 08
Thursday will feature showers and unseasonably cool air. All in all, it won’t be a chamber of commerce day around these parts. Pack the rain gear and jacket! What’s up…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/08/rainy-friday-or-no/
Oct 08
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Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
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44/ 66 |
47/ 55 |
51/ 55 |
42/ 58 |
48/ 62 |
61/ 70 |
49/ 64 |
Much Needed Sunshine…After several days of wet, gloomy weather, sunshine will be a welcome sight to see! Today is easily the pick of the week with dry skies and mild temperatures. Enjoy!
Wet; Chilly End To The Work Week…A cold front will sink south into the area Thursday and rain will move into the state as early as the predawn hours Thursday morning. Temperatures will actually fall Thursday afternoon and evening. While there’s some “model mayhem” in regards to what takes place Friday, we’re currently leaning more towards the GFS/ NAM wet solution with a secondary wave of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary. Stay tuned.
Not A Bad Weekend…We’ll have to dodge a couple rain drops over the weekend (particularly Sunday), but it won’t be a wash-out by any means. A chilly Saturday will slowly moderate Sunday.
Heavy Rain Event…Forecast models continue to key in on a heavy rain event impacting these parts Monday night into Tuesday of next week. More details to come, but plan on the possibility of excessive rains across a large chunk of the Mid West and Ohio Valley at this early juncture.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Hopefully you were up early enough this morning to enjoy the lunar eclipse! The first image is from the Brownsburg area and taken from Ronna Jessen. Thank you, Ronna! I also added an image taken off our back deck at 6:30 this morning.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/08/nice-today-wet-chilly-thursday-on-deck/
Oct 06
Another active period of weather is in store for the region. (After an extended stretch of pleasant conditions from late September into the opening of October, I guess we shouldn’t complain too much).
Dry days will be at a premium over the course of the upcoming 7-days. The final in a series of disturbances in the fast northwest flow will blow through the region Tuesday. This will offer up a threat of scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder through the daytime hours. Latest forecast radar data suggests showers and embedded thunder will be ongoing Tuesday morning.
After a dry day Wednesday (filled with lots of sunshine), we anticipate clouds and rain to quickly return as early as Thursday. Forecast models handle the evolution of things differently at this juncture. For now, we’ll side with a blend of the GFS and Euro and serve up best rain chances late Thursday into Friday, followed by less concentration of rain Saturday, coupled with cool north winds.
Saturday is a tough call at this point. The cold front will be south of our area and chilly Canadian high pressure will be building in, but we may keep considerable cloudiness and pesky showers around (similar to last Saturday?). Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune.
Note the cooler than normal air settling in over the weekend.
7-day rainfall numbers vary greatly from model to model. Upcoming weekly rainfall totals range from as little as 1″ to as much as 2″. The Canadian model is the most aggressive, suggesting over 2″ on a widespread basis.
Just beyond this time next week we may be looking at an even more significant storm system, but we still have time to fine tune things as we move forward.
Despite the dry weather late September through October’s open, the past 30 days have featured beneficial to excessive Corn Belt rainfall…
Year-to-date has featured a wet eastern region. Also note the dry pattern across the southwest (some places under 1″ YTD)! Officially, we’re just slightly wetter than normal at IND, year-to-date (+0.53″).
Thinking longer term towards the darker, colder, and snowier months ahead… The JAMSTEC remains “bullish” on a regime plenty capable of delivering the cold and snowy “goods” for the region… BTW- we usually post our annual winter outlook the first Friday of October. Things have been very hectic as of late and we’re going to have to delay this release by a few weeks….
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/06/weekly-outlook-active-and-cool/
Oct 06
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Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
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47/ 60 |
46/ 63 |
44/ 66 |
46/ 59 |
49/ 59 |
40/ 60 |
41/ 60 |
Cool And Gray Open To The Work Week…A couple disturbances will cross through the region between today and Tuesday. This will help lead to considerable cloudiness and off and on showers through the next 24-36 hours. We’re not talking about heavy rainfall, but pesky showers, mostly cloudy skies, and unseasonably cool conditions will be in place.
Mid Week Sunshine Ahead Of The Next Front…High pressure will briefly build into the region Wednesday helping supply a brighter and slightly milder regime. Enjoy whatever sunshine we do see Wednesday as clouds and rain will quickly return as we wrap up the work week (some indications are we could be looking at heavier rain late week, so stay tuned).
Another Cool Weekend…Another cool air mass will build into central Indiana for the weekend. While timing issues abound, we currently forecast dry skies Saturday with showers around Sunday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Jason Burton sent in this amazing sunrise shot taken in Union City. Thanks for another great photo, Jason!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/06/unsettled-and-cool/
Oct 02
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Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
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61/ 83 |
46/ 70 |
43/ 49 |
40/ 57 |
44/ 64 |
49/ 64 |
48/ 70 |
Changes…BIG weather changes begin today as a warm front lifts through the region. This will lead to a warm and windy afternoon with showers and a possible rumble of thunder arriving as early as the morning rush. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening, but we also want to note there will be plenty of dry time in between rain drops. A bigger push of showers and thunderstorms will blow into town tonight into the wee morning hours Friday. A couple of these storms may reach severe levels, especially for western communities. Damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern.
Showers and thunderstorms continue Friday, but the bigger weather story will become our temperatures as a MUCH colder air mass rushes into the area Friday evening on a gusty northwest wind. Falling temperatures can be expected through the afternoon Friday so you’ll want to be sure to pack the jacket and cold weather gear tomorrow.
Chilly Weekend…Well below normal temperatures can be expected this weekend along with unsettled conditions. Saturday continues to look like a mostly cloudy and blustery day with periods of drizzle and/ or sprinkles. Sunday will feature more in the way of sunshine, but caution we may also deal with widely scattered light showers.
Timing Issues…We’ll fine tune early next week once our first storm system moves through the region. As of now, we target Tuesday as the best day of showers, but timing issues abound. More on this later.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
John Salewicz sent in this great sunset photo on the Carmel/ Zionsville line Wednesday evening. Thanks, John!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/02/periods-of-storms-big-push-of-chilly-air-on-the-way/
Oct 01
Thursday will begin the major shift from relatively mild and stable weather that we’ve enjoyed for the past week and a half to one that’s drastically different, and much more resemblant of November by Saturday.
First rain drops will likely splatter on wind shields as early as the morning commute across central Indiana.
We’ll then see a “lull” in the action through the majority of the day before more widespread showers and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms rumble in Thursday night into Friday morning. Here’s a look at forecast radar Friday morning.
The Storm Prediction Center does highlight western sections of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday. We’ll continue to monitor things closely. Localized damaging straight line wind is the primary severe threat in the highlighted risk area.
We also want to highlight Friday afternoon and evening for another round of showers and embedded thunder.
Rainfall totals should reach between 1″-2″ with locally heavier amounts between the period of Thursday morning and Saturday morning.
The rain and gusty storms will fall ahead of a strong autumn cold front that will send temperatures on a rapid downward trend come Friday night. A deep trough will carve itself out over the eastern region Saturday and ultimately have temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast feeling November-ish by Saturday (perfect football weather, IMO).
By the way, the record low max will be in jeopardy Saturday (49 degrees, courtesy of Sean Ash) as many central Indiana communities may struggle to make it out of the 40s for highs with considerable cloudiness, pesky drizzle, and gusty winds. Have the jackets and sweaters ready, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/01/well-advertised-major-changes-waiting-on-deck/
