We still have a few nice days to enjoy this week before our forecast takes an increasingly wet shift as we progress through the weekend. As a side note, we still expect scattered showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but this shouldn’t be a significant event, locally.
What will become an increasing concern is the threat of periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms this weekend. The overall setup is a classic one for widespread heavy rain.
An area of high pressure will be located off the Mid Atlantic coast while surface low pressure develops in the southern Plains and tracks north over the weekend. The combination of these two ingredients will help pull abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the Ohio Valley. With a true Gulf connection, moisture-rich air will overspread the region this weekend. In addition to feeling truly muggy for the first time this year, this will also aid in periods of heavy rain this weekend.
Precipitable water values will approach 2″ at times this weekend and that’s plenty enough to create a localized flash flood concern.
From this distance, it appears like widespread 2″ to 3″ of rain will fall over the weekend, but localized heavier totals are expected where thunderstorms “train” over the same areas. While it won’t rain the entire weekend, times of wet weather will outnumber dry hours and if you live near a creek or stream, keep abreast of this developing weather situation as significant water rise is expected over the weekend.
Highlights:
Finally, after Saturday morning thunder, we think the majority of next weekend is dry before a cold front brings a return to widespread showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.
It’ll be a much cooler day today (temperatures are running close to 20° cooler than this time Thursday morning) with highs only topping out around 60 for the city, itself, and only into the mid to upper 50s across north-central Indiana.
More widespread rain showers will move in overnight into Saturday. Heaviest rain will fall across the southern half of the state (1″-2″ possible). Factor in a strong and gusty easterly wind, temperatures only in the 40s for much of the day, and periods of rain and you have the makings for a downright “raw” Saturday.
The good news here is that we still think things dry out for the second half of the weekend. The last round of showers should pull off to the east Saturday night and pave way for a dry Sunday, including increasing sunshine as morning gives way to afternoon.
With the increasing sunshine Sunday, temperatures will respond closer to average highs in the middle 60s. After we spend most of Saturday in the 40s that sure will feel nice!
As a cold front slices into the summer-like warmth (highs will approach 80° Wednesday afternoon), scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into Thursday.
We then will shift gears rather abruptly as we move through the latter portions of the work week and on into the weekend with well below normal chill. In fact, if current data comes to fruition, most of the weekend will be spent in the 40s.
Factor in a stiff northeast wind and periods of rain, we have the makings for a downright “raw” weekend. We suggest having indoor activities planned this weekend as an extended period of damp, blustery, and unseasonably cool weather awaits.
We still have a few days to continue watching the data, but early indications suggest locally heavy rainfall is possible (1″-2″) across the region…
Highs will run close to 15° above average this afternoon.
Stormy weather returns Monday as a frontal boundary slips into the state. A couple storms may become strong or severe Monday afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center highlights northwestern portions of the state for a Slight Risk. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with any severe storm that may develop.
High pressure returns for midweek and supplies a dry regime, along with increasing sunshine and temperatures that will run slightly above average (mid-40s at night and 65°-70° during the day).
There are questions once to the end of the period as the GFS and European handle the evolution of our late-week storm differently. The GFS brings energy out into the Ohio Valley and results in unsettled weather returning Friday, continuing into Easter weekend, while the European is slower. We’ll keep an eye on things over the next few days and update accordingly. The GFS suggests some localized heavier downpours would be possible in the Friday-Sunday period as the majority of the 7-day precipitation snapshot below falls within the timeframe.
Highlights:
Precipitation is running above normal, locally, to the tune of nearly 1″ month-to-date. Heaviest rains have fallen across southeastern Indiana over the past (30) days.
A look at precipitation anomalies across the mid west, month-to-date:
As we progress through the upcoming (10) days, a transient weather pattern will persist. This will keep forecasters busy, but it should also be stressed it’s not all a “doom and gloom” type pattern, either. There will be plenty of dry time over the upcoming period, including drier conditions building in tomorrow (Tuesday) into a good chunk of Wednesday.
However, timing is our friend this go around as upper ridging develops over the upcoming weekend. Not only will we dry out, but we’ll also enjoy increasing sunshine as the weekend progresses.
That said, looking further down the pipe line, another (potentially more significant) storm system looms during the 8-10 day period. This would fall in the April 3rd-4th time frame. From this distance, models are bullish on hefty rainfall totals with this storm system and we’ll keep a close eye on things as time draws closer.
Speaking of April, our overall thoughts for the fourth month of the year (where does time go?) would imply a warmer than average month and active (wetter than average). Relative to average, we feel we still may have some chill to traverse early month, but there’s also some indication we could bust into an early summer-like feel mid and late month. With the mean trough position west and ridging east, we’ll have to also be mindful for the potential of an active severe weather month- especially mid and late month. Overall, the CanSIPS idea below is one we would agree with from a mean 500mb perspective.
Highlights:
However the cold air won’t last and milder times will return by the second half of the weekend. This back and forth “tug of war” type regime will remain as cold and warmth (relative to average) continue to battle over the upcoming couple weeks. The latest European ensemble shows this nicely.
This also favors a rather active pattern and confidence is high on a wetter than average period upcoming over the next couple weeks. See the GFS ensembles support this idea. A couple strong storms are also possible Tuesday.
Unfortunately for snow lovers, the majority of significant moisture should fall as rain. Best snow chances appear to come with “backlash” wrap around snow showers and squalls Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulating snow is possible, but most amounts should be light. We’ll keep an eye on it.
Longer-term, the fight continues deeper into the month. As