Category: Heavy Rain
Highlights:
- Strong-to-severe storms Friday
- Pleasant Saturday
- Humidity and storms return
Active Friday For Some…Before we can discuss the pleasant and absolutely gorgeous weather conditions that will welcome in the weekend, we have to deal with a potentially “bumpy” few hours Friday afternoon into the early evening across portions of the state.
Central Indiana is under the gun for severe weather Friday.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines central and southern portions of the state for the threat of severe weather Friday. Damaging straight line winds are the greatest concern with a line of storms that develop Friday afternoon and push southeast. Drier weather will quickly build in behind a cold front Friday evening and help usher in a very pleasant open to the weekend. We’ll certainly notice the lower dew points Saturday and cooler feel with plentiful sunshine. Enjoy it!
Unfortunately the pleasant and dry conditions won’t last very long, and shower chances return as quickly as Sunday afternoon. Humidity and a true tropical feel will also engulf the region next week. This, combined with upper air disturbances moving through the Mid West and Ohio Valley, will aid in daily “splash and dash” thunderstorm coverage. With a moisture-rich air mass in place, stronger storms will produce torrential downpours. Overall, the active and unsettled summer that central Indiana has grown accustomed to shows no signs of let-up in the week ahead…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2.00″-3.00″ (locally higher totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/06/strong-storm-potential-friday-before-a-pleasant-saturday/
An early look at the radar this morning shows a couple of lone storms near Decatur and Blufton. These are moving off to the east.
While we’ll maintain mention of a widely scattered thunderstorm today and Independence Day, the majority of both days will remain rain-free.
A wave of low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday and this will result in an uptick in storm coverage. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. While some localized totals could be higher, we think widespread rains of 1″-1.5″ is a good bet Wednesday night into Thursday.
High pressure will build in over the weekend and aid in a drier and cooler theme.
Lows will return to the 50s across central Indiana Sunday morning and refreshing (upper 50s at night and upper 70s to lower 80s during the day) air will remain with us into early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/03/monday-morning-rambles-4/
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Filed under AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Independence Day, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos
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June 30, 2017
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/30/video-closing-out-june-and-heading-into-july/
Highlights:
- Scattered storms this evening
- Pleasant air continues for now
- More humid and stormy by late week
Pleasant Start Ends With Storms For Some…We couldn’t ask for more beautiful weather conditions for the last week of June. Hopefully you were able to get outside and enjoy these pleasant conditions over the weekend. If not, you still have a couple days to do so. Despite the sunny start to the day, enough upper level energy will move overhead this evening to help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms. Initially these storms will fire over northern Indiana before settling south through the evening. We think greatest coverage across central parts of the state will arrive between 6p-10p before these storms push south and diminish. Localized brief heavy downpours are possible, but, overall, this won’t be a significant, widespread heavy rain event.
We’re back to dry and pleasant conditions through Wednesday, but humidity will be on the rise by Thursday and so will shower and thunderstorm chances. We’ll have to monitor the potential of a couple rounds of gusty storms and heavy rain late week and we’ll have to fine tune timing as we get closer. Unsettled weather conditions will continue into the holiday weekend ahead.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″-2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/26/pleasant-air-evening-storms-for-some/
I. The new work week will open up with a continuation of unseasonably cool temperatures. Speaking of temperatures, how nice has it been to have air equivalent of late-September as we get set to wrap up the month of June?!
II: A weak upper level disturbance will drift overhead Monday afternoon and help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours. Not everyone will get wet Monday evening, but a couple gusty storms are possible. Here’s a look at the radar valid at 6p Monday.
III. After a dry Tuesday and Wednesday, better shower and thunderstorm chances will return to our forecast for late week into next weekend. Additionally, temperatures and humidity levels will return to closer to seasonal norms.
IV. An active pattern will remain with us as we progress through the first half of June. A busy NW flow aloft will likely send multiple storm clusters southeast into the region and we’ll have to be mindful for the potential of some of these storm complexes containing strong-to-severe storms and excessive rainfall.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/25/another-week-is-upon-us-looking-ahead/
Highlights:
- Heavy rain and storms through the daytime
- Much cooler and drier air on the way
- Pleasant week ahead
Tropical Downpours Today…The remnant tropical moisture of Cindy is lifting northeast this morning while a cold front is dropping south. The combination of these two weather features will result in an expanding area of rain and thunderstorms across central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon. Periods of heavy rain can be expected. Thankfully, this won’t be a long duration event and a much drier air mass will invade from northwest to southeast by evening. We’ll easily notice this drier trend as dew points go from about as high (lower-middle 70s) as we ever see them this morning to a very crisp feel (dew points in the 50s) tonight.
The cooler and drier theme will continue through the weekend into the majority of the upcoming week ahead. As noted in previous discussions, a fast-moving northwest flow will be responsible for sending a couple of minor upper level disturbances southeast into the region. For the most part, we believe scattered showers will remain north of central Indiana until Monday afternoon and evening. While this won’t be a significant event by any stretch of the imagination, a couple of showers are possible.
Our air flow will eventually shift around to the southwest by the middle of the week and this will begin to send a warmer and increasingly moist air mass north by Thursday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″ (locally heavier amounts)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/23/heavy-rain-gives-way-to-a-gorgeous-weekend/
The combination of an approaching cold front to our north and remnant tropical moisture from Cindy will serve to enhance rainfall amounts across central Indiana late tonight into early Friday evening.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/22/video-heavy-rain-develops-overnight-into-friday/
Highlights:
- Breezy, warm Thursday
- Heavy rain Friday
- Drier and much cooler air on deck
Heavy Rains Likely Friday…A warm front is draped to our north this morning and this is helping spark a few showers across northern portions of the state. Here on the “home front,” with the exception of an isolated shower or storm, most should remain rain-free through the day, locally. Things begin to change late tonight into Friday as the region feels the effects of a “squeeze play” between Cindy’s remnant tropical moisture tracking through the TN Valley and an approaching cold front to our north. The combination of the two will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms across central IN. With a tropical nature to the airmass Friday, some of these storms will produce locally heavy rainfall. Most widespread rain and storm coverage should occur Friday morning into the afternoon before a drying trend develops from northwest to southeast Friday evening.
Our cold front will push southeast and clear the state Friday night which will allow a much drier and cooler air mass to settle in for the weekend, continuing into next week. You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone complaining about our weather through the period as a stretch of beautiful summer conditions take on an almost early fall-like feel through Tuesday. While we’ll have to keep an eye on a sneaky disturbance riding into the region on the fast northwest flow (could spark a quick passing shower), most of the period should remain rain-free. Eventually our air flow will shift to a southwesterly direction by the middle of next week and this will help transport an increasingly moist feel back into the region.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/22/friday-squeeze-play-much-cooler-air-coming/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/20/video-storms-rumble-in-for-some-tonight-tropical-talk-a-cool-close-to-june/
I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns: A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state. Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon. Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.
A much less humid air mass will arrive to open the work week.
II. Watching the Gulf: All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.” There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week. Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.
Confidence is high on early season tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico.
III. Unsettled Weather Returns: A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend. As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday. Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.
Heavy rain and storm chances increase late week.
IV. June Ends On A Cool Note: Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period. How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?
Models agree on an unseasonably cool close to June.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/18/upcoming-week-headliners/
