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Category: Heavy Rain
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/14/video-heavy-rain-and-cooler-air-on-the-horizon/
Aug 14
Periods Of Heavy Rain Move In For The 2nd Half Of The Week…
Tuesday will remain dry across central Indiana with plentiful sunshine and warm temperatures. The quiet times will give way to unsettled conditions as we progress through the second half of the week, including periods of locally heavy rain.
This is all part of a pattern that will remain active around these parts. We note the latest European model delivers three storm systems between now and this time next week. Each of these systems will be capable of producing hefty rainfall across the region.
In the more immediate term, after a dry Tuesday, rain will arrive on the scenes Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast radar 1p Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Rainfall coverage and overall intensity will increase as Wednesday evening gives way to night, continuing into Thursday morning.
Forecast radar 11p Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Forecast radar 6a Thursday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Note the high resolution models suggesting widespread precipitable water values (PWATs) in excess of 2″. This is a significant ingredient that will help fuel heavy rain Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
As mentioned above, a couple of other storm systems promise for continued unsettled times over the weekend and on into early next week. When we total things up by the middle of next week, both the GFS and European model agree on widespread 3″ to 5″ totals.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/14/periods-of-heavy-rain-move-in-for-the-2nd-half-of-the-week/
Aug 13
VIDEO: Midweek Storm System Delivers Renewed Heavy Rain Threat…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/13/video-midweek-storm-system-delivers-renewed-heavy-rain-threat/
Aug 12
Looking At The Week Ahead: Relatively Quiet Open Gives Way To Active Times…
High pressure will dominate our early week weather. With the exception of an isolated shower or thunderstorm across eastern portions of central Indiana this afternoon, most should remain rain-free through the daytime hours Tuesday.
A couple of showers may impact e-central parts of the state later this afternoon. Most will remain rain-free. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
High pressure will keep the majority of the region quiet to open the new week.
The pattern will begin to turn busy once again as we move into midweek. An approaching storm system will increase shower and thunderstorm chances late Tuesday night through Thursday. While it won’t rain the entire time, locally heavy downpours are expected at times during the midweek stretch.
Most of central Indiana can expect to pick up 0.75″ to 1.25″ of rain during the aforementioned period, but there will be locally heavier totals.
Looking towards next weekend, forecast models generally agree on active times continuing, but disagree on the important specifics. We’ll go with a “blend” right now and increase rain chances again Saturday and Sunday- after a briefly drier Friday. The ranges are anywhere from a flood threat, such as the European currently suggests, to typical scattered showers and thunderstorms, per the latest GFS. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune through the upcoming week.
This is all part of a continued active weather pattern that will likely produce above normal precipitation as we close out the month and look towards September…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/12/looking-at-the-week-ahead-relatively-quiet-open-gives-way-to-active-times/
Aug 07
VIDEO: No Looking Back On The Active, Wet Pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/07/video-no-looking-back-on-the-active-wet-pattern/
Aug 06
Unsettled 24-36 Hours And Looking Beyond…
A cold front is slowly sinking south and will feature a weak wave of low pressure that will track along the boundary Tuesday. The end result spells for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana over the upcoming 24-36 hours.
Initially, we expect an area of thunderstorms to push south and potentially impact north-central portions of the state later tonight. The latest high resolution NAM forecast radar gives us an idea what the radar may look like late tonight- just after midnight.
Some of the storms across the northern third of the state may “pulse” to severe levels this evening, including the potential of large hail and damaging winds. (This complex will weaken as it surges south later tonight).
As we turn our attention to Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A few strong storms are possible, including locally heavy rain.
Eventually, drier times will return by mid-week. Beforehand, most central Indiana rain gauges should receive somewhere between 0.50″ to 1″ of rain. With a rich, tropical airmass in place, there will be some locally heavier totals.
Image courtesy of weathermodels.com
Image courtesy of weathermodels.com
As the cold front moves south during the midweek stretch, drier times will return Wednesday and Thursday. With that said, the drier regime won’t last long, as a cut off upper low “mucks” things up over the weekend. While it certainly won’t rain the entire time, daily rain chances will return late Friday, continuing throughout the weekend. There’s no need to cancel any outdoor plans, but have the rain gear handy, as you’ll likely need it at times throughout the weekend.
A “cut off” upper low will impact the region this weekend. Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com.
Speaking of rain and overall unsettled times, the pattern sure looks active around these parts into the mid and longer range. More on that in future updates…
Longer range data suggests wetter than normal times throughout the Ohio Valley mid and late August. Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/06/unsettled-24-36-hours-and-looking-beyond/
Aug 02
Mostly Dry Weekend; Active Times Return Early Next Week…
A summer-like feel will return as we move through the weekend. While the heat and humidity won’t be excessive by any means, you’ll certainly notice a different feel when compared to the cooler air we’ve enjoyed over the past 10 days, or so. We forecast highs in the mid-upper 80s with plentiful sunshine through the weekend. While an “isolated” thunderstorm is possible, most will remain rain-free until early next week. That said, best rain and storm chances will be confined to northern Indiana Thursday evening and forecast radar products are picking up on a skinny line of showers and thunderstorms.
A thin line of storms may impact northern Indiana this evening. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
This area of thunderstorms is forecast to diminish before it would impact central Indiana.
Forecast radar 9p. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
The weekend will be highlighted by plentiful sunshine with only isolated storm coverage and an increasingly muggy feel. Note the southwest air flow returning around an area of high pressure off the East Coast and our next approaching storm system to the northwest.
That storm system will settle south and begin to impact central Indiana early next week with storm chances increasing Monday into Tuesday. With rich tropical moisture in place, locally heavy rain will be likely as the front moves in.
Models are in overall agreement of additional significant rainfall early next week (widespread 1″ to 2″).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/02/mostly-dry-weekend-active-times-return-early-next-week/
Jul 30
VIDEO: Periods Of Heavy Rain To Open The Work Week; Unseasonably Cool…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/30/video-periods-of-heavy-rain-to-open-the-work-week-unseasonably-cool/
Jul 28
VIDEO: Is This July Or September?! Rain Chances Return…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/28/video-is-this-july-or-september-rain-chances-return/
Jul 27
Beneficial, Soaking Rain On Deck Early Next Week…
A cold front blew through the state Thursday evening and much cooler, drier air is greeting us out the door this morning. In general, temperatures are running 5° to 10° below average across the state. Highs today won’t make it out of the 70s and high pressure will remain in control of our weather, providing dry conditions, through Saturday.
Changes begin to take place as we move into the second half of the weekend as a storm system organizes to our west. I still think most of the day will be rain-free, but we’ll notice increasing cloudiness and will mention the potential of a scattered, light shower.
This is only an “appetizer” to the main course which will arrive late Monday into Tuesday. Tuesday continues to look like a wash out across the region with the potential of locally heavy rain, as well. The culprit? A surface area of low pressure and associated front that will move through the state.
In addition to the expected Tuesday soaker, unseasonably cool temperatures will remain. In fact, most of the day on Tuesday should be spent in the 60s…
Rainfall coverage and intensity will begin to diminish Wednesday and drier air should arrive Thursday. By that point, we expect widespread rainfall totals to check-in between 1″ and 2″ with locally heavier amounts.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/27/beneficial-soaking-rain-on-deck-early-next-week/