Apr 04
One word to describe the mid-April weather pattern? ACTIVE. Tonight’s medium and long range video update dives in further…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/04/pattern-returns-to-an-active-time-of-things/
Mar 30
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/30/video-period-of-wet-heavy-snow-this-evening-looking-ahead-to-next-week/
Mar 30
A wet day is in store for central Indiana as a wave of low pressure moves along a stalled frontal boundary this afternoon. Once that low scoots by, the front will get a shove to the southeast and much drier weather will return as we go through the 2nd half of the weekend. The transition in between will be a combination of heavy rain eventually ending as wet snow this evening. Let’s time things out:
This morning’s initial wave of steady rain is now pushing into Ohio (as we write this just before 9a). Scattered showers are left behind.
That said, another wave of steady and, at times, heavy rain will return early this afternoon. A couple of thunderstorms are possible across southern Indiana.
Precipitation coverage will be widespread from noon until around 8p, including additional rainfall amounts over 1″ in many spots across central Indiana. Localized ponding and low-land flooding will be a good bet this afternoon into the evening hours.
As the area of low pressure scoots to our east, it’ll help pull the cold front south through central Indiana during the mid to late evening hours. Accordingly, rain will transition to a period of wet snow between 6p and 8p across central Indiana. More specific to Indianapolis, we think rain will switch to snow around 7p.
While snow won’t last a long time and temperatures will be above freezing as the snow is falling, briefly heavy intensity will likely result in a quick wet coating to around an inch in spots from central parts of the state, including east-central Indiana.
All precipitation will exit the state before midnight. While we could have a couple of scattered snow showers early Sunday morning, most of the day will be dry with increasing amounts of sunshine as the day progresses. It’ll be much colder with highs not making it out of the 30s.
Improving weather conditions will build in here through the early parts of the work week, along with moderating temperatures, thanks to high pressure. – Much more on the week ahead and longer range later today with our PM video update.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/30/heavy-rain-ends-as-snow-this-evening/
Mar 28
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/28/thursday-evening-video-wet-open-to-the-weekend-before-a-cold-finish-reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies/
Mar 27
Today will feature another day of gorgeous weather, including plentiful sunshine and warmer temperatures! After another frosty start, highs this afternoon will reach the middle 50s. Enjoy it as weather conditions will begin to deteriorate as we wrap up the week.
Scattered showers will arrive tomorrow, but these won’t really be a big deal. The bigger story will be gusty southwest winds and temperatures that top out in the lower 60s.
The first of a couple rounds of heavier rainfall will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning.
A cold front will remain draped over the region into Saturday before getting a “nudge” south Saturday night. This will serve as the focal point for additional rounds of rain Friday night into Saturday.
While precipitable water values won’t be overly “juicy” they will be sufficient enough to result in moderate to locally heavy rainfall at times.
A widespread soaking of 1″ to 2″ is a good bet by the time high pressure returns Sunday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/27/heavy-rain-event-to-wrap-up-the-week/
Mar 24
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/24/sunday-evening-video-update-heavy-rain-strong-storms-expected-for-southern-in-tonight/
Mar 16
Meteorological Spring has gotten off to a cold start- to the tune of nearly 5 degrees below average at IND through 3/15.
Note the brutal cold across the Northern Plains and Rockies.
The upcoming week will feature a positive PNA pattern and associated cooler than average theme to open, before beginning to moderate mid-to-late in the work week.
That said, time is limited on the chilly pattern and an overall significant shift to more of a sustained spring-like pattern awaits to close March and as we head into April.
Note the warmth that follows:
This will result in many more days in the 60s and 70s as we put a wrap on March and open April.
While weak systems will continue to impact the area (tomorrow, Wednesday, and again next Sunday), the deeper, moisture-laden storms will take a “backseat” during the fast-moving northwest flow. That begins to change during the last few days of the month and on into April. The latest ensemble guidance sees the return of a more active pattern, likely complete with heavier rain events and the potential of stronger storms.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/16/now-were-talking-4/
Mar 09
Our quiet Saturday will transition to a rather “bumpy” time of things by the afternoon into tonight as a storm system moves through. Showers and embedded thunder off to our southwest this morning will rumble across central Indiana this afternoon and evening.
Forecast radar products show widespread showers and embedded thunder through the afternoon hours into the evening. Coverage of rain will be greatest between 2p and 6p. Some locally heavy downpours are possible. While severe weather isn’t expected across central Indiana, a few strong to severe storms, capable of damaging straight line winds, will be possible across southern parts of the state. Storm total rainfall amounts of 0.75″ to 1.25″ will be common across the region.
Attention will then shift to strong and gusty winds this evening into tonight. Gusts of 50-55 MPH will be common across central Indiana during this timeframe. Unfortunately, downed trees and potential for power outages will be on the increase tonight.
Winds will remain gusty into Sunday morning, but begin to diminish through the day.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/09/rain-and-embedded-thunder-increases-this-afternoon-strong-wind-event-tonight/
Mar 09
A wet and stormy time of things will develop this afternoon, followed by increasingly gusty winds tonight and early Sunday. Winds will gust in excess of 50 MPH at times…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/09/video-storms-rumble-in-this-afternoon-looking-ahead-to-the-remainder-of-march/
Mar 06
We’ll apologize in advance for the long-winded post tonight, but there’s a lot to cover. Not only do we have the accumulating snow on deck, a couple of strong storm systems this weekend into the middle of next week, but the long range pattern is set to turn cold (again) after a mid-month respite. We also want to look ahead to our early thoughts towards April…
Let’s take things one at a time:
Thursday-Friday Snow
While we don’t have major changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast, we have “sagged” the swath of 1″ to 3″ snow south just a hair given the latest computer model guidance. Steadiest snow should fall Thursday night into the predawn hours Friday. We’d anticipate a slick Friday morning commute through the heart of central Indiana.
Snow should exit off to the southeast around, or just before, lunchtime Friday. As always, your ground-truth reports are welcome (feel free to send to us on Twitter or via e-mail).
Warmer Side Of Things
The ‘mean’ trough position will shift to the west (temporarily) and lead to an overall milder time of things for the mid-month stretch. Unfortunately, the milder air will come with a wetter pattern.
This milder, wetter pattern will be highlighted by (2) storms:
I. Saturday, 3/10
II. Tuesday-Wednesday, 3/12-3/13
Both storm systems will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours and embedded thunder. Greatest chances of severe will remain south of central IN with this weekend’s storm, but may be further north next week. We’ll keep a close eye on things and issue Client Briefs if need be as we get closer.
A combination of the GFS and European computer models print-out rainfall totals between 1″ and 2″ over the upcoming 10-days and this seems reasonable given the fact both storm systems will be able to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture.
From a temperature perspective, the brutal cold will come to an end behind our late week snowmaker. While “transient” chill will follow both of the upcoming storm systems, we’re heading into a much milder pattern, overall, through the mid-March stretch. Mildest air will come directly in front of the storm systems, highlighted by a couple of 60 deg. + days the middle of next week.
Positive PNA takes over
Unfortunately (for lovers of spring), the mid-month warm-up will be only a “tease” as we’re set to trend cooler, relative to normal, for the last 10 days of the month. The reason? A developing positive PNA.
To no surprise, we see the cooler pattern returning on the computer models:
Not only will we turn colder to close the month, but Thursday likely won’t be our last accumulating snow of the season…
Looking Towards April
Despite the late-March “set back” to a chilly time of things, we continue to think a more sustained “stick and hold” spring pattern looms around the corner. In fact, we agree with the latest CFSv2 delivering a warmer than normal pattern for April, as a whole, to the eastern portion of the country.
Note that as we go, the model is getting warmer for April with each passing day. As things stand now, we think the trough will pull back to the west with a more sustained ridge in place across the eastern portion of the country in April. With this, a wetter than average regime likely awaits, including an uptick in severe chances further north into the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/06/running-the-gamut-looking-ahead-to-april/