Category: Heavy Rain

May 06

More Evidence Behind Mid-May Shift To Cooler And Drier…

Though May has opened warmer than average (to the tune of 1 degree F above normal, month-to-date), there’s growing evidence behind a shift towards not only a cooler pattern for mid-month, but drier, as well.

MJO:

The Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to move through Phase 7 (a cooler phase in May across the eastern half of the country).

PNA:

The Pacific North America pattern is forecast to remain positive into mid-May. This favors a cooler than normal south-central into the eastern portion of the country, as well.

To no surprise, we see modeling now in excellent agreement of the cooler mid-month shift that awaits on deck. Recall that this wasn’t the case last week when the GFS and EPS were in vast disagreement.

The cooler shift also will provide relief from the seemingly unending wet regime we’ve been in as of late.

Hang in there; after a warm, wet open to the month, the pattern will begin to shift around in significant fashion as we move into the weekend and beyond…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/06/more-evidence-behind-mid-may-shift-to-cooler-and-drier/

May 06

All-Access Video: Timing Out Storm Chances This Week; May Takes On A Cooler Feel…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/06/all-access-video-timing-out-storm-chances-this-week-may-takes-on-a-cooler-feel/

May 04

All-Access Video: Sunshine Returns Sunday; Another Busy Week Ahead…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/04/all-access-video-sunshine-returns-sunday-another-busy-week-ahead/

May 03

Wet Pattern Not Just An OHV Problem…

Rain has been dominating the weather pattern lately. A widespread portion of the Ohio Valley is running 125% to 175% of mean over the past (30) days. More specific to central Indiana, the bulk of this fell during the back half of April.

When we broaden out the scale, we note this wet pattern isn’t just an Ohio Valley problem, but focusing the heaviest rain on the Ark-La-Tex region.

Unfortunately, when we look ahead to the upcoming couple of weeks, the pattern will continue to favor heavier than normal rainfall- not only locally, but especially centered in the area just mentioned- eastern TX, AR, and LA.

The reason behind this active and wet pattern? A persistent southeast ridge and mean trough digging into the southwest. This, combined with unseasonably cold air across the northern tier, helps set up a battle “in between” (from the s-central Plains into the Ohio Valley). Factor in the broad southwest flow aloft, and multiple disturbances will track in a southwest to northeast fashion next week, enhancing rain intensity and coverage at times. In parts of the Ark-La-Tex region, as much as 8″ to 10″ of rain may fall over the upcoming 10-days.

The excessive rainfall can also impact the upcoming season and we’ll dig in deeper here next week with our 2019 Summer Outlook.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/03/wet-pattern-not-just-an-ohv-problem/

May 03

All-Access Video: Wet KY Derby; May Pattern Check-Up…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/03/all-access-video-wet-ky-derby-may-pattern-check-up/

May 02

All-Access Morning Video: Timing Out Rain Coverage Into The Weekend; Looking Ahead To A Continued Wet Pattern…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/02/all-access-morning-video-timing-out-rain-coverage-into-the-weekend-looking-ahead-to-a-continued-wet-pattern/

May 01

Time To Duke It Out…

We know the upcoming (10) day period is going to feature a continuation of above average rainfall, but what lies beyond that? Ensemble data is entirely in two different camps once we get to the Day 10-15 period.

GEFS:

EPS:

Talk about a night and day difference. This would result in widespread 70s and 80s should the GEFS prove accurate (and put our May outlook in jeopardy) versus 50s and 60s should the European turn out to be correct (more in line with our monthly outlook). Unfortunately, from a precipitation perspective, wetter than normal times are expected to continue for the balance of the month of May and the data is in more agreement from that perspective- despite the vast differences at 500mb.

When we look at the latest CFSv2, it’s more in line with the European camp, including rather widespread chilly, damp weather for the mid-to-late May time period.

The combination of a negative NAO and AO, though not nearly to the extent of chill found in late winter/ early spring, do continue to hint at cooler than normal times in May. Eventually I would expect the GEFS to trend cooler, as well.

Furthermore, the PNA (currently negative) is forecast to trend positive by mid-May and that supports the cooler anomalies returning to our immediate region.

We’ll also have to keep close tabs on the MJO and see if it wants to propagate through Phases 5-8, or go back in the “wheelhouse” and really not be a factor. (More to come there).

To sum things up, we don’t see an end in sight to the overall wetter than average pattern as we progress into the middle of May. We’re less confident on the overall temperature pattern, but lean towards the EPS and CFSv2 “winning” over the warm GEFS solution in the end.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/01/time-to-duke-it-out/

May 01

Wednesday Morning All-Access Video: Periods Of Storms; Wet Pattern Remains In Place For Week 2…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/01/wednesday-morning-all-access-video-periods-of-storms-wet-pattern-remains-in-place-for-week-2/

Apr 30

Short-Term Video Update: Muggy With Strong Storms At Times…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/30/short-term-video-update-muggy-with-strong-storms-at-times/

Apr 30

All-Access Video Update: Wet; Active Pattern Continues Into Next Week…

Good morning, friends! This morning’s video takes a deeper look at the overall pattern and drivers behind the active and wetter than normal weather pattern. Unfortunately, this overall wet regime…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/30/all-access-video-update-wet-active-pattern-continues-into-next-week/

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