Category: Heavy Rain

Nov 05

Wednesday Forecast: Rainy Midweek

Updated 11.05.13 @ 3:43p

Zionsville, IN Clouds are hanging tough this afternoon and rain isn’t too far off. Rain will increase Wednesday, becoming widespread the second half of the day. MUCH colder air will then blow into the region Wednesday night and Thursday.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconWednesday: Rain likely (0.55); 34/ 58

Wednesday will feature another gloomy day with rain overspreading the region from west to east. Scattered showers will be present through the morning hours before giving way to steadier, heavier rainfall during the second half of the day. Latest data suggests the cold front is speeding up from the last forecast update and this should result in a FROPA (frontal passage) Wednesday night. It’ll also be a windy day, with southwest gusts of 25-30 MPH during the day, shifting to the northwest Wednesday night.  Colder air will pour into the state behind the front, setting up a chilly, blustery Wednesday night and Thursday.

Status-weather-clouds-iconThursday: Partly cloudy; 33/ 47

A blustery northwest wind will blow Thursday and combine with a partly cloudy sky and an unseasonable chill to create a rather cold day. Winds will gust upwards of 20 MPH from time to time.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 30/ 51

A hard freeze will greet us as we prepare to wrap up the work week. Widespread lows around 30 will be commonplace before partly cloudy skies help temperatures rise into the lower 50s Friday afternoon.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday and Sunday: Partly cloudy; 40 Sat, 36 Sunday/ lower to middle 50s

High pressure will remain in control of our weather Saturday.  While a weak storm system will pass through the upper Great Lakes region, it’ll remain well north of our area. Southwest breezes could gust up to 20 MPH Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, we’re looking at some mid and high level cloudiness and middle 50s Saturday afternoon and lower 50s Sunday.

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 38/ 50

Dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions will greet us as we kick off the new work week.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Scattered shower (0.10); 36/ 50

The early look at next week shows more questions than answers.  For now we forecast scattered showers as our next weather system approaches from the west, but we caution this is a low-confidence forecast.  Be sure to stay tuned as we update things moving forward.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-forecast-rainy-midweek/

Nov 05

Wet Pattern Continues

While the midday model data continues to flip flop on the temperature outcome next week, one thing seems rather likely and that’s the idea we remain in a pattern that will produce significant rainfall over the next 10 days.

Let’s take a look at the ECMWF, GFS, and GEM (Canadian) for precipitation amounts over the next 7-10 days.

gfs_tprecip_conus2_65cmc_precip_by10_conus_1ecmwf_precip_10_conus_41

Model data paints a wet picture of widespread 1.5″-2″+ type rainfall totals over the upcoming 7-10 day period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-pattern-continues/

Nov 03

Monday Forecast: Tracking Another Storm

Updated 11.03.13 @ 3:30p

Zionsville, IN It’s been a beautiful fall weekend across central Indiana. Aside from a couple of quick-moving showers Saturday evening, the weather couldn’t have been more perfect!  While the work week will start off on a pleasant note, we’re tracking another storm and significant blast of chill later this week.

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly to mostly cloudy; 38/ 58

The day should dawn with bright sunshine, however, we note the latest high resolution short-term model data suggesting mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase through the afternoon hours.  It’ll be a dry day with seasonable temperatures.  Enjoy!

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Mostly cloudy; nighttime light showers (0.10″); 44/ 61

We’ll be in between high pressure to our east and our next approaching storm system to our west. As a result, a return southerly flow of air will help begin to transport milder air northward, along with increasing moisture Tuesday evening. The daytime hours should remain rain-free, but we’ll introduce a couple of light showers into our forecast Tuesday night.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconWednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, especially at night (0.70″); 49/ 60

A significant cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Showers will be likely through the day, but we still believe the heavier rains and embedded thunder will hold off until Wednesday night (especially after dark).  While we’re still monitoring any threat of severe weather, the bigger threat at this time appears to be another round of heavy rain falling atop a waterlogged central Indiana.  Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data and update things accordingly.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconThursday: AM showers and thunderstorms (0.40″);  38/ 55 (falling)

The cold front will blow through the region Thursday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms will end west to east during the morning followed by a sharp temperature decline through the day, coupled with strong northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30 MPH.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 29/ 48

A much colder air mass will settle into central Indiana Thursday evening and result in a hard freeze Friday morning. After waking up to lows in the upper 20s, highs will reach the upper 40s with partly cloudy skies.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 40/ 55

Our fast-moving weather pattern will remain next weekend.  We’re tracking another storm system that will blow through the Great Lakes region Saturday. Current thinking places the track of this low too far north to impact the region from a precipitation standpoint, but we’ll certainly note a strengthening southwesterly wind Saturday followed by another shot of cold air Saturday night/ Sunday.  Highs next Sunday will likely remain in the 40s…

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-forecast-tracking-another-storm/

Nov 01

Saturday Forecast: Chilly Weekend; Eyeing Another Significant Storm…

Updated 11.01.13 @ 10:53p Zionsville, IN After a day filled with heavy rain and damaging winds, we closed the week out with chilly, but pleasant weather conditions.  We’ll enjoy a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-forecast-chilly-weekend-eyeing-another-significant-storm/

Oct 29

Tuesday Forecast: Changes Brewing…

Updated 10.29.13 @ 9:37a

Zionsville, IN It’s another calm, cold, quiet start to the day, but changes are brewing. These changes include warmer, more muggy air by tonight and Wednesday, widespread rain and storms for mid week, and another temperature plunge for the weekend.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Mostly cloudy; scattered nighttime showers; 0.10″; 37/ 62

After a calm, cold start to the day, clouds will increase and showers will develop tonight. We currently note widespread rain and embedded thunder across MO, but this will weaken as it encounters our dry air mass tonight. Light rain will likely overspread the region from southwest to northeast as we move through the nighttime hours.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconWednesday: Scattered showers; 0.10″; 55/ 67

The big story on Wednesday won’t be the rain, but instead the briefly warmer surge of air out ahead of our cold front. In fact, most of Wednesday should remain rain-free. Latest high resolution short term model data points to showers and a rumble of thunder exiting stage right Wednesday morning and while we can’t rule out an additional shower or thundershower through the day, most of the time will be rain-free Wednesday. South winds will begin to increase during the afternoon, gusting over 20 MPH.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconHalloween: Showers and thunderstorms; 1.10″; 59/ 66

A strong cold front will plow into the state Thursday night. Out ahead of this boundary, abundant moisture will surge north into the area. We’re not looking at all day rains Thursday, but target the afternoon-nighttime hours when rain and thunderstorms will be the most widespread. Additionally, we continue to monitor the severe threat with this system. Widespread and significant severe thunderstorms will be likely across southern IN and points south to include the western TN Valley. That said, severe weather reports will likely extend north to include central Indiana, as well. As of now, the primary severe threat appears to be from a damaging straight line wind perspective across our neck of the woods. Heavy rainfall will also be common as widespread 1″+ rains are likely.  Needless to say, you’ll certainly want to keep those weather radios tuned in Thursday.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 45/ 59 

The cold front will be to our east Friday, allowing the sunshine to return. It’ll be a breezy day, but the true cold air advection will hold off until Saturday, so temperatures will be very near seasonal levels Friday with a gusty northwest breeze.

imagesSaturday: Mostly cloudy; PM scattered showers (wet snow flake mixed in); 0.05″; 37/ 47

Fresh cold air will pour into the state Saturday and be accompanied by some upper level energy to create the threat of afternoon scattered showers.  Precipitation may mix with a wet snow flake Saturday evening. We think the day shapes up as a cold, raw day that will certainly require that jackets and sweaters.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 55

We’ll wrap up the weekend with sunshine returning.  Temperatures will begin to moderate closer to where we should be for this time of year, after a cold and frosty start.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 37/ 63

As high pressure moves to our east, it’ll allow a warmer return flow out of the southwest to help take over the region for the start of another work week. We’ll monitor a storm system to our west, but forecast dry skies for now next Monday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-forecast-changes-brewing/