Category: Heavy Rain

Mar 27

Busy Pattern…

A busy weather pattern will keep us on our toes with two storm systems of note between now and Saturday.

Periods of showers will keep most of today wet.  While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of moderate to heavy showers are possible today.  A quick punch of milder air will arrive this afternoon after a chilly start to the day, combined with a strengthening south wind.  Total rainfall today and tonight should average half an inch, or less.

Highs today will reach the lower 50s, despite the showers.

hires_t2m_max_indy_9

Latest simulated radar data shows the potential of a line of thunderstorms moving through here late tonight, directly associated with the cold front.  A strong storm is possible along with gusty winds as the front slides through early Friday morning.

hires_ref_mw_24hrrr_ref_mc_16

As if all of this wasn’t enough, another storm system will arrive Saturday.  This system will have a wintry component to it, with the chance of a stripe of wet snow along the northern shield of precipitation.  It’ll require our attention as we move forward.  March storms have been known to have a surprise or two and it’s our job to try and help eliminate any of these surprises.

nam_ptype_slp_ma_20

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/busy-pattern/

Mar 11

Catching Up After A Day Outside Enjoying This Weather…

1.) We don’t really have any changes to the going snowfall accumulation forecast we have out concerning Wednesday.  We think Indianapolis accumulates 2″, with heavier amounts north of the city…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/catching-up-after-a-day-outside-enjoying-this-weather/

Feb 19

Active Thursday Ahead…

* Your complete 7-Day forecast can be found below this post.

We continue to monitor things closely Thursday as a busy day is on tap.  Thunderstorms will initially blow into the region Thursday morning as a warm front lifts north through central Indiana.  These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and vivid lightning.

T-stormsRound1

We’ll then get into a much warmer south wind (gusting up to 30 MPH) and watch radar trends closely to our west.  We’re still very concerned for a squall line plowing east through the region Thursday evening.  Time of greatest concern lies between 5PM and 8PM for this line, but we caution timing may have to be adjusted after looking over evening data.  Damaging straight line winds are of the greatest concern Thursday evening, along with torrential rainfall.

ThrSeverThreatSIMRadarFollowing the squall line, we’re also concerned for strong and potentially damaging northwest winds Thursday night, gusting up to 50 MPH, as low pressure rapidly deepens moving into the Great Lakes.

Bullet Point Thoughts You Need To Know For Thursday

  • Morning round of heavy rain and thunderstorms
  • Severe squall line capable of wind gusts over 60 MPH Thursday evening- targeting 5pm to 11pm
  • Heavy rain totals around 1″
  • Strong northwest winds Thursday night that could gust up to 50 MPH

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-thursday-ahead/

Feb 18

Focus On Mid Week Flood/ Storm Threat…

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

 Mon.

Tue.

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-storm-night-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-icon

 Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-snow-scattered-icon

35/ 50

36/ 60

29/ 43

29/ 39

21/ 35

17/ 28

16/ 24 

0.00”

0.75″-1.00″

0.00”

Trace

Trace

0.00″

Accumulating snow?

Forecast Updated: 02.19.14 @ 8:00a

One More Calm Day…A weak front blew through early Wednesday and produced a light shower for southeast parts of the state.  Sunshine will return Wednesday along with a blustery northwest wind.  It’ll be another mild day.

Concern For Flooding And Severe…With continued melting of a deep snow pack, combined with around an inch of rain (most of which falls within a 3 hour time period Thursday) and the stage will certainly be set for flooding.  In fact, we remain very concerned for flooding Thursday. If you live in a flood prone area, please prepare to seek higher ground Thursday as flood waters rise.

The second concern is a severe potential Thursday evening.  While the greatest threat for severe weather will remain south and east of our immediate region, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of damaging straight line wind gusts Thursday evening.  The greatest threat lies between 5PM and 8PM Thursday as a line of thunderstorms pushes east through the state.  Again, damaging straight line winds, in excess of 60 MPH, is our greatest concern at present time.  Stay tuned.  Drier and much colder air will roar in behind the front Thursday night on strong and gusty northwest winds.

Weak Weekend Disturbances…A couple of fast moving disturbances will pass through the region this weekend and could spark scattered snow showers in the much colder air.

Accumulating Snow Early Next Week…Model data continues to struggle in the mid range handling energy coming east before what continues to look like a big blast of arctic air to wrap up February.  As of now, we’re targeting Tuesday for best chances of accumulating snow, but stress this a low confidence forecast in regards to timing at present.  Stay tuned.

images

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

twic

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/focus-on-mid-week-flood-storm-threat/

Feb 16

Sunday Afternoon Thoughts…

1.) A scan over the latest data continues to point towards an absolute mess of a Monday afternoon.  Our accumulation ideas remain relatively unchanged from this morning’s update, aside from “beefing” expected snow totals for Indy’s northern ‘burbs by 1″.  Most of this falls from noon to 6pm and will be followed by a dry, cold, and blustery Monday night.  After likely a white-nuckle evening commute Monday, the combination of sub-freezing temperatures and gusty northwest winds Monday night will likely lead to another rough commute for Tuesday morning.

** We caution that this will be another “now cast” situation when it comes to precipitation types and their respected precise zones tomorrow afternoon.  Stay tuned here or to your favorite local weather media for updates and potential changes.**

  • Indianapolis northern ‘burbs, including Zionsville: 2-4″ snow and sleet with less than 0.10 of freezing rain.
  • Indianapolis proper: 2″ snow and sleet with around 0.10 of freezing rain
  • Indianapolis southern ‘burbs, including Greenwood: 1″ snow and sleet with up to 0.25 freezing rain.

Snow:IceForecast021714

2.) We continue to monitor what will be a brief thaw and associated flood risk mid week.  Even without rain, water rise would occur and urban flooding from the combination of melting snow and blocked (from all of the snow) drainage zones.  When you add 0.50-1″ of rain atop the melting then problems could arise Wednesday into Thursday.  Additionally, we’ll need to prepare for the likelihood of dense fog Wednesday as milder air surges north over a deep snow pack.

3.) For anyone thinking spring is setting in during our mid week thaw will need to think again. Latest model data continues to suggest we reverse things quickly later this week and for the upcoming weekend.  In fact, some model data, including the European, suggests central Indiana is under the gun for a weekend winter storm.  We’ll continue to monitor closely…

021614ECSatWinterStorm022214

4.)  Additionally, prospects continue to grow for another extended period of well below normal cold and renewed wintry precipitation chances in the long term (into March).  Both the GFS and European models are in agreement on the mid to long range pattern with a trough settling back into the eastern half of the country.

02161412zGFSEC

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-afternoon-thoughts/