A serious weather situation continues to evolve across central Indiana with training thunderstorms, including rainfall rates easily capable of producing flash flooding. Here at IndyWx.com HQ, we’ve accumulated 5″ of rainfall since 4pm Wednesday (as of 6pm Thursday). By the way, it’s still raining.
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Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
70/ 87 |
69/ 84 |
66/ 85 |
64/ 86 |
66/ 89 |
66/ 80 |
66/ 78 |
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Light |
Light |
Light |
– – – |
Light |
Light |
Light |
It was a rather noisy evening across north-central Indiana with numerous strong to severe thunderstorms that dumped torrential downpours and provided damaging wind for some. While rainfall totals certainly weren’t “uniform,” many communities received anywhere from 1.5″ – 2.5″ of rain between the two rounds of storms. Today and Friday are liable to be another couple of active days as the heat, humidity, and instability builds during the afternoon. Heavy showers and embedded stronger thunderstorms will likely fire across central Indiana this afternoon. Locally heavy rain can be expected with any storm that develops. As we move forward, we still think we can introduce slightly drier air into your weekend forecast with rain coverage greatly reduced Saturday and almost non-existent Sunday. Next week poses a whole set of problems as forecast models aren’t in agreement in the least. For now we’ll go with a blend, leaning slightly more in the direction of the cooler/ drier GFS by the middle of next week as it’s been performing nicely with the cooler, drier air masses so far this spring and summer. Stay tuned.
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Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
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|
|
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71/ 89 |
70/ 88 |
70/ 87 |
69/ 86 |
62/ 84 |
66/ 89 |
70/ 82 |
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Light |
Light |
Light |
– – – |
Light |
Light |
Moderate |
An unsettled and overall active weather pattern will remain in place over the upcoming forecast period. While it certainly won’t rain and storm the duration of the next seven days, we’ll have to focus in on individual disturbances and the associated impacts on our immediate region as we move forward. The Storm Prediction Center does include the majority of central Indiana in a Slight Risk of severe weather this afternoon and tonight, with damaging straight line winds the primary concern. All of that said, we also must point out that some of our short term model data is trending east with the thunderstorm activity tonight, primarily impacting eastern Indiana into Ohio. We’ll monitor things closely and have another update on a potential storm track and timing this evening. Stay tuned. Widespread seven day rainfall numbers off an average of computer models would place 1.5″-2″ down across central Indiana.
Good afternoon! We wanted to cut a video discussing our thinking around timing and primary threats from any severe weather that gets going across central Indiana tomorrow evening.
Walking out the door this morning feels dramatically different than what we’ve enjoyed over the weekend! Not only are humidity levels much higher, but temperatures are 15-20 degrees warmer than what they were this time 24 hours ago across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
With the increased warmth and humidity, it’s not going to take much to kick scattered showers and thunderstorms off. That’s exactly what we’re seeing across central Indiana this morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible under any of the stronger storms.
Look at the Northeast region radar snapped at 8am, courtesy of the Penn State e-wall site:
As for precipitation amounts, it still appears as if we’re in a wetter than normal regime over the next couple weeks. As of this morning, we’re officially running 1.56″ above normal at IND year-to-date. A look over a blend of GFS, Euro, and Canadian would imply widespread 2-3″ amounts over the upcoming two weeks, with locally heavier totals where local downpours occur. This is NOT what one wanting a hot pattern to lock in wants to hear.
While warmth and humidity will be the story this week, we still think we turn cooler to wrap up June. We’ve been talking about a cooler than normal pattern developing for late month and latest guidance continues to suggest that thinking has merit. Much more later! BTW- your 7-day forecast can be found here.
