Category: Heavy Rain

Jul 01

Not Out Of The Woods Just Yet…

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While we’re kicking the day off on a more pleasant weather note when compared to that of Monday, we’re still not out of the woods just yet in regards to thunderstorm chances.  After a noisy night across the region, another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely this afternoon.  Some of the storms could reach severe levels- especially from Indianapolis and points south this afternoon.  Large hail and straight line winds are the biggest concerns.  We’ll then begin to transition to the much cooler and drier pattern for mid week.  A few instability-driven showers may pop Wednesday as cooler air spills into the region.  Thursday through Sunday will then feature dry conditions along with unseasonably cool temperatures. We’ll begin to crank the heat and humidity back up early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/not-out-of-the-woods-just-yet/

Jun 30

Severe Threat Tonight For Portions Of The Region…

We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today.  The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex.  Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.

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The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL.  All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.

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The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.

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This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.

Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana.  Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.

Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region.  In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region.  Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.

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Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.

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Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening.  The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.

Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state.  While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region.  More later this afternoon!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/severe-threat-tonight-for-portions-of-the-region/

Jun 28

Humid Weekend; Severe Potential Monday.

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A warm front is lifting north through the region this morning and rain will continue to expand in coverage this morning as the front lifts north.  Sunshine will then quickly build back into central Indiana this afternoon, along with plenty of humidity.  We’ll get back into the scattered afternoon/ evening “splash and dash” thunderstorm regime later today and again Sunday.  Looking further ahead, concern is growing about a potential severe weather event here Monday and we’ll have an additional post later this weekend discussing this potential in more detail.  For now, plan to pay special close attention to Monday’s forecast with damaging severe weather potential in play (all modes of severe weather at hand).  We still forecast a MUCH cooler, drier regime building in mid week and remaining in place through the upcoming holiday weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/humid-weekend-severe-potential-monday/

Jun 24

Showers, Thunderstorms Expand In Coverage Later Today.

We’re eyeing a rather unsettled day across central Indiana, including numerous showers and thunderstorms that will likely develop across the region, especially from late morning into the evening hours.  So far, the majority of heavy rain and thunderstorms has remained off to our northwest, but that will likely change within the next few hours.

We’re tracking upper level energy off to our southwest this morning and this piece of energy will track northeast as we move through the second half of the day.

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The latest visible satellite image also shows the spin associated with the upper level energy over southern Illinois this morning.

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Note the heavy rain and embedded thunder currently to our southwest associated with this disturbance this morning.

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As this energy moves northeast there’s no reason to think widespread showers and thunderstorms won’t be around the region this afternoon and evening.  We note a very humid air mass in place with dew points around 70.  Furthermore, precipitable water (PWAT) will approach 2″ this afternoon across the area.  The upper energy will provide the needed lift.  Needless to say, the ingredients are in place for another round of heavy rain.

The HRRR simulated radar product has a pretty good handle on what the radar may look like this afternoon, valid at 3p.

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Widespread rainfall totals should fall within the 0.50″-1.00″ range on average today, but locally heavier totals closer to 2″ will certainly be possible under the heavier storms.

Interested in personal weather forecasts or consulting for yourself or place of business?  Email us at bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/showers-thunderstorms-expand-in-coverage-later-today/

Jun 23

Splash And Dash Storms To Open The Work Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/splash-and-dash-storms-to-open-the-work-week/