Very Active Night Ahead…

An active and noisy night is on tap, friends, as multiple storm clusters move through central Indiana. Initially, the concern is hoisted for severe weather, including damaging winds and hail. As the night progresses, the growing concern will be flash flooding as storms train over the same area, potentially leading to 3″+ rains in localized areas.

We’re currently eyeing convection firing to our northwest and these storms will push southeast this evening. They will move into a very warm, humid, and unstable environment and will likely strengthen as they ride into north-central IN later this evening. Here’s a snap shot of the radar valid at 8p:

Note as we progress into the overnight, additional storms are likely and flooding concerns are on the rise due to this. Radar valid at 3a:

Rainfall totals of 1″-2″ will be common tonight across central IN, but some localized reports of 3″-4″ can’t be ruled out where storms train. Here’s a look at potential rainfall numbers through 5a:

We note PWATs (precipitable water values) pushing close to 2″ overnight and this increases our confidence on the heavy rainfall potential, as well:

Stay weather-aware tonight, friends!

Bill McMillan June 7, 2015 No Comments Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms

A Much Cooler, Drier Trend…

Highlights:

Much cooler and drier through Thursday
Moisture increases this weekend
Stormy early next week

A cold front swept through the state this evening and a much drier and cooler brand of air is filtering into IN as we type this. That cooler and drier regime will carry us into late week before moisture slowly begins to return. High pressure will shift east and allow a moist return flow Friday into the weekend. Add in a couple of disturbances and the associated forcing, combined with the increasing warmth and humidity, and the stage is set for periods of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. It certainly won’t rain the entire time, but plan on localized heavy downpours.

A MUCH cooler air mass will greet Hoosiers out the door Tuesday morning. Even cooler air will be with us Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine and cooler than normal air through mid week.

A southwesterly return flow will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across not only our local area, but across a widespread portion of the Plains and Ohio Valley. Furthermore, a significant severe weather outbreak appears to be a good bet across the Plains.

After a dry mid week stretch, active times return over the weekend into early next week. Localized torrential downpours are likely. Most of the 1″ to 2″ of rain forecast shown above (courtesy of the GEM model off the Weatherbell.com suite) is expected to fall early next week.

Bill McMillan May 11, 2015 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Canadian Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Rain, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Severe Weather Potential Today…

We continue to closely monitor the threat of severe weather today. Best chances of severe thunderstorms likely will come this afternoon into the early evening hours from west to east,…

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Bill McMillan May 11, 2015 No Comments Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Hail, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms

Lots Of Dry Time This Weekend, But Scattered Storms Will Be Around…

Highlights:

More dry time than not this weekend
Strong storm potential Monday
Cooler and much drier air moves in Monday night

The region remains in a very warm and moist air mass this weekend and this could help promote a scattered shower or thunderstorm really at any point over the next couple of days. That said, best concentration of rain and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours. All-in-all, the weekend will feature many more dry hours than not. A final push of showers and thunderstorms will blow through Monday and some of these could reach strong to severe levels. We’ll keep a close eye out. A much cooler and drier air mass arrives Monday night and that will carry us through Thursday.

Most of today will be dry, but forecast radar (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) suggests showers and thunderstorms build into central IN this afternoon and evening. Plan on taking rain gear with you if you have outdoor plans and have a means of getting inside should a storm be nearby.

The SPC has highlighted a large portion of the Ohio Valley for the threat of severe weather Monday. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be of greatest concern at this time. While this doesn’t look like a significant widespread severe weather outbreak for our immediate region, let’s remember it only takes one severe storm impacting a community to be significant in that particular neighborhood.

Bill McMillan May 9, 2015 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Hail, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Rain, Severe Weather, Spring, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Friday Morning Rambles…

May has gotten off to a warm (dare I say hot?) start. The past couple days have felt more like July than May with mid to upper 80s commonplace.…