Category Archives: Heavy Rain

Humid, Stormy Times Continue; Watching The Tropics…

Screen Shot 2015-06-15 at 7.39.21 AMHighlights: 

  • Humid feel continues
  • Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday
  • Watching tropical remnants closely

We’re waking up to similar weather conditions that we dealt with to close the weekend- scattered heavy downpours and very humid. It certainly won’t rain the entire day, but scattered storms will bubble up again as we progress into the afternoon and evening.  With the humid air mass locked in, any shower or storm that develops will produce torrential downpours.

A frontal boundary will slip into the region tomorrow and provide enough lift to present a strong to severe thunderstorm threat Tuesday.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.  This front will stall out near the area and serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development through the upcoming few days.

The tropics continue to be of interest later this week, but we stress that forecast models are really struggling with handling the details.  Solutions range from a flood threat presented by the European and Canadian; however the GFS would suggest the tropical remnants don’t get involved in our pattern.  We’re leaning more towards the Euro/ Canadian blend as of now as we feel the SE ridge will help steer the tropical remnants northeast into the Ohio Valley late week (timing may have to be find tuned as we draw closer).  Again, stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″ – 3″ (locally heavier totals)

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Tropics

Busy Times In The Forecast Office…

Today is the beginning of several active days around these parts. Over the course of the next few days severe weather and heavy rainfall will keep us on our toes…

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No Comments CFSv2, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Tropics

Today Is The Pick Of The Week; Wet And Stormy Pattern Looms…

Screen Shot 2015-06-13 at 9.02.37 AMHighlights:

  • Best weather of the week is today
  • Strong to severe storm potential Sunday and Monday
  • Widespread heavy rain threat mid week
  • Unsettled pattern continues

We’re opening the weekend with dry skies across central IN, along with a very tropical feel.  The combination of a nearby weak boundary and the humid air mass will help fuel isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon.  That said, overall coverage of storms will be reduced from what we saw Friday.  Most of the day will feature dry conditions.

We’ll begin to increase storm chances as we rumble into the second half of the weekend and on into the new work week.  Some of these may be strong to severe Sunday-Monday, including strong damaging winds and large hail.

Attention will then shift to mid week and the potential of an excessive rainfall event.  Modeling is leaning towards tracking a tropical disturbance north out of the western GOM (Gulf of Mexico) before shifting northeast around the periphery of a southeastern ridge.  Very heavy rainfall would result if this idea pans out.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 2″-4″ (locally heavier totals) 

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Strong To Severe Storm Potential; Active Pattern…

The Storm Prediction Center highlights the region for a risk of severe weather both today and Sunday.  Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook    As for timing, we expect…

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No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms

Storms Tonight; Heat Builds This Week…

Screen Shot 2015-06-08 at 5.57.06 PMHighlights:

  • Stormy tonight for some
  • Heat builds this week
  • Better storm chances return for the weekend

A cold front remains off to our northwest as we type this and big storms are firing across northern portions of the state.  We’ll keep a close eye on those as they move southeast tonight and begin to pick up more forward momentum in the coming hours.  They’ve had a history of producing damaging hail.  Remain weather-aware this evening.

Thankfully we’ll begin to inject a drier air mass (briefly) into the region Tuesday.  A nice day is coming with lower humidity.  Most of the second half of the work week will also remain dry, but as humidity increases we have to mention the threat of an isolated to widely scattered storm.  The big story will be the heat as highs push into the 90 degree territory.  Prepare to sweat!

Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will push back into the region over the upcoming weekend.  We’re not forecast a complete washout either Saturday or Sunday, but with a very humid air mass in place, any shower or storm that develops will have the capability of producing torrential downpours.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2.5″

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Hail, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, Unseasonably Warm