Mar 03
As we begin to transition from winter to spring this weekend, it’s not only the impressive early season warmth that has our attention next week, but also a developing wet pattern.
A combination of ingredients will result in a rather prolonged moist southwesterly air flow, with a Gulf of Mexico connection. The end result is a wet pattern developing, especially come mid week.
So while you get ready to enjoy the warmer than normal spring feel, it may also be wise to have the rain gear handy.
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Feb 22
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Feb 20
To date, February is running slightly cooler and drier than average, locally. Expect a beautiful Saturday and we officially have issued a white leg warning. 🙂 With highs…
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Jan 31
10 Day AG-Weather Outlook
Issued: 01.31.16
Forecast period: 02.01.16 – 02.10.16
Focal Items:
Summary: The forecast period will begin with strong ridging across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a significant trough digs across the west. That trough will lift northeast through the middle of the upcoming work week before re-amplifying over the upcoming weekend into early week 2 across the Plains and Ohio Valley region.
Sensible Impacts: A significant storm system will move off the Rockies and into the Plains Monday. The surface low will track northeast from SE CO Monday night into SW MI Tuesday night. To the north and northwest of the surface low, heavy snow and blizzard conditions will impact areas from CO, KS, NE, IA, MN, and WI. South and southeast of the surface low track, strong to severe thunderstorms will rumble through the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday night. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.
We’ll need to keep a close eye on the potential of a clipper system diving SE across the N. Plains and upper Ohio Valley over the upcoming weekend, but the bigger event appears to be a developing winter storm threat centered on the end of the period (2/8-2/10 time period). There are, obviously, a lot of details to sort through, but an impactful winter event is very possible across the Ohio Valley towards the end of the forecast period.
Temperature Anomalies: The period will open much warmer than normal, but transition cold, and eventually colder than normal by the end of the period across the forecast region.
Anomalous warmth will engulf the Ohio Valley to open the forecast period. Source: Penn State E-Wall
The pattern shifts colder than normal towards the end of the period across the Plains into the southeast. Source: Penn State E-Wall
Precipitation: A stripe of heavy snows (10″-15″) will fall from CO, NE, IA, southern MN, and WI with the initial early week storm. .5″-1.5″ of rain will fall across the Southeast, TN, and OH Valley regions (locally heavier totals where strong storm train). Overall, quieter times return mid and late week for the forecast region before the next potential strong storm develops late in the period.
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Dec 28
Highlights:
Strong Winds And Flood Threat Remains…What an active morning across central IN! Northeast winds are already gusting around 40 MPH with periods of heavy rain this morning. Across our northern tier of counties (mainly north of a line from LAF to KOK) freezing rain and sleet is the issue this morning with temperatures below freezing.
Periods of heavy rain will continue today, and we also note the threat of embedded thunder (damaging wind risk) this evening, bracketed between the hours of 6p-8p.
Temperatures will remain cold and raw through most of the day before we see a late day rally briefly into the lower to middle 50s. It’ll be another day with a tight temperature gradient across the state, as northern IN will struggle to make it much above freezing, while southern IN approaches the upper 60s this evening.
Midnight highs Tuesday can be expected before temperatures crash.
We’ll then set our eyes towards a weak wave of low pressure that looks to deliver a light mixed bag of precipitation Wednesday morning. The freezing line will run through the central part of IN and a mixture of light snow and light rain can be expected. MUCH colder air flows into the state behind this system and sets the stage for a cold open to 2016.
Forecast models continue to show an expected pattern shift to all-out sustained cold and wintry conditions for mid and late winter. Note the W NA ridging developing. Additionally, blocking and a negative AO develop as mid January nears. Think this is the year without a winter? Better think again, my friends.
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