Category Archives: Heavy Rain

Drier, Cooler Air On Our Doorstep…

screen-shot-2016-09-10-at-9-20-41-amHighlights:

  • Greatest storm coverage and intensity this morning
  • Turning much drier and cooler
  • Reinforcing mid week cool air

Turning Much Drier This Evening…It’s been a wet and stormy time of things as of late.  Locally heavy rain will continue to accompany stronger storms this morning, but we note greatest storm coverage should begin to shift ENE as the morning progresses into afternoon.  Renewed showers will likely develop this afternoon as the cold front moves through the state.  We’ll then enjoy a marked NW wind shift this evening and that will help push much drier and cooler air in to help create a true fall feel tonight.  The second half of the weekend look beautiful- sunny and crisp!

Much needed dry time will be with us for the balance of the upcoming work week.  We note a reinforcing push of cool air mid week that could spark a shower, but rainfall amounts don’t look impressive (the air will be much drier than the “soupy” feel we’ve been dealing with for the past week).  A more significant rain-maker should arrive next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1″-2″
7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Heavy Rain, T-storms

Periods Of Heavy Rain Then Much Cooler…

A “wavy” frontal boundary will be located over our region through the next 36-48 hours before getting a “shove” south from a cold front Saturday. 


The combination of the stationary front along with a tropical-rich air mass in place will be enough in and of itself to produce periods of heavy rain today into Saturday morning. Add in a couple of disturbances moving along the boundary and the heavy rain prospects grow even higher. A strong to severe storm also can’t be ruled out-primarily this afternoon and again Friday afternoon. 

Already this morning (6:30a) we note widespread showers and embedded thunder impacting IL and northern IN. 


As mentioned, the air mass is plenty “juicy” to fuel locally heavy rain through the period. Precipitable water values (PWATs) will surge north of 2″ for all of central IN later today. 


While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of heavy rain will remain in our forecast today through Saturday morning. Widespread 1″-2″ totals will be common, with locally heavier totals. 


High pressure will build overhead Sunday and lead to quite the change. A much cooler and drier air mass will return along with brighter skies to wrap up the weekend. 


Lows in the middle 50s will be common for the city, itself, Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Upper 40s to lower 50s are a good bet away from the metro. 

Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, T-storms

Wet Day; Enhanced Flood Risk Tonight For Some…

The National Weather Service has expanded the Flash Flood Watch to encompass more of the viewing area.  This is in effect until 8p Tuesday.

Screen Shot 2016-08-15 at 7.26.16 AMNo doubt about it, today will be very wet across the entire region, including periods of heavy rain- especially across the western half of the state.

3

4Tropical moisture will continue to stream into the state tonight into Tuesday.  In fact, most intense rains will likely set up tonight and may feature “banding” signatures that would train over the same areas.  Within these intense rain bands, prolific rainfall rates can be expected, enhancing the flash flood risk.  Latest short-term model data shows this threat, and would place a premium focus on areas generally west of US-31.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on things.

2Plenty of “juice” is available to tap into across western sections tonight.  Precipitable water values (PWATs) of 2″-2.5″ will be more than enough to fuel torrential rainfall.

hrrr_pwat_indy_16Eventually (mid and late week), we’ll dry things out and a significant cool down is still in store developing this weekend into early next week.  Lows will fall deep into the 50s with highs only in the 70s.  Talk about an early taste of fall…

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6

Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Heavy Rain Continues; Early Fall Preview Late Next Weekend…

Screen Shot 2016-08-14 at 9.57.05 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of heavy rain
  • Drying out come mid week
  • Cold front arrives next weekend

Flooding Concerns…Renewed heavy rain is pushing through central IN as we write up the morning forecast package.  This conveyor belt of moisture will continue to lift northeast and eventually break up and diminish during the late morning and early afternoon.  Despite scattered showers this afternoon, drier times will ensue, overall.  Unfortunately, this drier period won’t last long as another slug of moisture lifts north late tonight and continues Monday.   Additional heavy rainfall can be expected, including the potential of rainfall rates approaching 2″+/ hour.  Given the water-logged soils across the region, concerns of flash flooding are very high Monday.

Eventually, we’ll dry things out come mid week and introduce more sunshine back into the forecast.  Our next item on the agenda will be a cold front that will sweep through the state Saturday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the boundary as it moves through the region before much drier and cooler air blows in for the second half of the weekend.  In fact, a welcomed early fall preview awaits come Sunday.  Thoughts of football, pumpkin “everything,” bonfires, and apple cider will be prevalent this time next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2″-4″ (locally heavier totals)

 

7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Flooding, Football, Forecast, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather

“Lull” In The Rain Won’t Last…

Central Indiana is enjoying some needed “down time” in the rainfall department this evening, but this won’t last as rain coverage and intensity returns overnight and Sunday morning. Like today, locally heavy downpours will be likely.

Forecast radar at 4a
Forecast radar at 6a.
Forecast radar at 11a.

In looking at early 00z data, it appears as if we deal with (2) waves of rain Sunday:

Sunday morning will feature widespread rain across central Indiana, including localized heavy rain. Another “lull” in the activity will likely arrive Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, but we caution rain and embedded thunder will really begin to ramp up and increase in coverage and intensity yet again late Sunday night into the day Monday. 

The second surge of moisture is more in direct association with the tropical moisture and energy moving north. This area of rain will likely include embedded rates of 3″-4″/ hour for some very localized areas. It’s impossible to pin point where these areas are, but don’t be surprised to hear (or see) some very heavy rain Monday. 

A true Gulf of Mexico connection will be present Monday and aid in flooding prospects.

When we factor in expected rain from tomorrow and Monday, it would appear as if central IN is in line to accumulate an additional 2″-4″ with locally heavier amounts. Flooding prospects will increase dramatically Monday as heavy rain falls on saturated soils. Please, take warnings seriously. Rapid water rises are likely.

Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Tropics