Updated 10.16.23 @ 7:38a
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Category: Harvest23
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-early-and-midweek-improvements-ahead-of-a-new-storm-system/
Oct 15
VIDEO: Throwing It On Repeat…
Updated 10.15.23 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-throwing-it-on-repeat/
Oct 13
Tracking 2 Storms In The Week Ahead…
Updated 10.13.23 @ 7:25a
I’ve had the opportunity this week to spend time with family and loved ones in the gorgeous western NC and eastern TN mountains. Fall foliage is starting to pop above 2,000 feet, especially after the cooler air this week.
At any rate, thank you for your patience and flexibility this week as posts have been a bit off schedule. We’ll resume “normal programming” Saturday.
When we look ahead to this week, there are 2 storms of note. The easy and obvious first system will deliver a round of storms this evening. A few of these will have gusty winds and a few leftover “backlash” showers will continue through the weekend as the upper low swirls overhead. Once again, we’ll turn much cooler tonight and continue into the new week.
Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be common for central and southern Indiana with heavier amounts of 1” to 1.5” across the northern 1/3 of the state.
Our second system is much more complex and will come into the picture late week (next Friday/ Saturday time frame). Guidance agrees on the energy becoming cut off from the main steering flow but is far from etched in stone with the specifics at this distance. It’ll certainly be a topic of discussion in the days ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tracking-2-storms-in-the-week-ahead/
Oct 12
LR Update: Checking In On The Pattern Drivers To Close October…
Updated 10.12.23 @ 10:50a
As we roll into the second half of October, a look at the primary pattern drivers suggests there should be a lack of any sort of sustained above normal temperatures.
The PNA (image 1) should remain mostly in a positive state over the next couple weeks while the EPO (image 2) is expected to be in a neutral to negative state.
Furthermore, the MJO is forecast to sneak into Phase 1 late month. This is the correlation in October:
It’s hard to find much at fault with the NEW JMA Weeklies posted earlier today.
Temperatures
Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3-4
Precipitation should run average to slightly below normal over the span of the upcoming (2) weeks:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-checking-in-on-the-pattern-drivers-to-close-october/
Oct 11
Briefly Warmer; Blustery Close To The Week With Rain And A Few Storms…
Updated 10.11.23 @ 7:42a
A cold front and associated area of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley as we close the week. Briefly warmer air will surge north into the region Thursday and Friday with temperatures flirting with 80° both days.
Moisture levels will also increase as dew points creep up closer towards 60°.
A weakening area of rain and embedded storms will rumble into the state late Friday and Friday night. Widespread severe weather isn’t expected but the Storm Prediction Center outlines the far western portion of the state in a marginal risk, primarily for a wind threat. We still bracket 0.25” to 0.75” rain potential.
Speaking of wind, non-thunderstorm gusts towards 30 MPH can be expected Friday and Saturday.
With the cold core upper low hanging around, additional spotty showers, mixed with graupel, can be expected over the weekend into early next week.
The theme over the next couple weeks is for cooler than normal conditions to dominate overall.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/briefly-warmer-blustery-close-to-the-week-with-rain-and-a-few-storms/