Highlights:
- Clouds more bark than bite today
- Stormy setup Sunday
- Trending colder next week
All Eyes On Sunday…The cold front that passed through the region Thursday night and setup the gorgeous close to the work week is lifting back north this morning as a warm front. This will result in overcast conditions today, areas of sprinkles or drizzle later in the day, and rising nighttime temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across central Indiana late tonight with a warmer and increasingly moist environment.
Sunday will certainly be a day to remain weather-aware. The overall setup hasn’t changed from what was discussed yesterday with a warm and moist southwesterly air flow in place ahead of an approaching cold front and associated area of low pressure. Additional ingredients in play suggest we need to monitor the threat of large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially tornadoes. Individual storms (potential super cells) are expected to fire across central and northern portions of the state Sunday afternoon into early evening. These will be capable of quickly pulsing to severe levels and include potential of large hail, as well as tornadoes (particularly in the vicinity of the warm front which is expected to be draped across north-central parts of the state). Individual cells are anticipated to “morph” into a squall line Sunday evening, including potential of a quick spin-up tornado, as well as damaging straight line winds. With a moisture-rich air mass in place (precipitable water values are expected to approach 2″ Sunday evening), locally heavy rainfall is also expected.
All of our “excitement” will come to an end overnight Sunday and we’ll trend much colder (and calmer) during the new work week ahead. Our next storm system will pass by to our south Tuesday, but may be close enough to spark a light shower across central portions of the state. Drier and colder conditions build in later in the week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″
A trough and associated cold front will slice into an unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air mass Sunday. Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures should climb into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon (average high is in the upper 50s) and dew points will reach the lower to middle 60s. While the developing surface low isn’t expected to be terribly strong, as this feature moves northeast, it’ll help drag a cold front into this warm and increasingly unstable air mass late Sunday. From this distance, conditions seem favorable for a couple of super cells to develop Sunday afternoon and evening. We’ll have to keep a close eye on the northward extent of the warm front as this would be the areas of greatest concern for potential tornadic activity Sunday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are also included in Sunday’s severe threat. We’re in the second severe weather season, after all, and this kind of event isn’t unusual. Late November 2013 comes to mind.
II. Gusty Thursday: After a cold, calm start to our Thursday, southerly winds will become gusty late in the afternoon. This is a result of an approaching cold front that will impact the region Friday.
III. Unseasonably Cold Weekend: A cold front will pass Friday afternoon and a band of showers will accompany the frontal passage. Winds will shift to the northwest late in the day and drive in a sharply colder close to the work week. Air will grow cold enough to potentially support snow to mix in with the rain as precipitation comes to an end. Additionally, upper level energy and the colder air mass this weekend (the air will have a bite to it) could support mixed rain and snow showers Sunday. – Novelty stuff only, but those first flakes are always special to see. Nonetheless, temperatures will run well below normal. In fact, highs will be closer to our average low temperature this weekend.
IV: Reinforcing Halloween Chill: We still stand firm on the idea of warm costumes being required this Halloween as chilly reinforcements blow into town Monday night. This will result in Halloween featuring a high in the mid to upper 40s with lows Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning dipping to around freezing (upper 20s in outlying areas away from the metro). Most of Trick-or-treat hours should feature temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Highlights:
Highlights:
In coffee shops and my travels around the great state of Indiana, I’ve overheard lots of talk centered on because October has been so warm, another lackluster snow season awaits. Let us remind you that the infamous snow season of ’13-’14 featured a very warm first half of October.
The upcoming 7-10 days will feature more of a transitional period of weather that we’ve come to know and love around these parts. Warmth will spread northeast this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front (around 80° Saturday) before falling temperatures Sunday afternoon behind the frontal passage. The chilliest air so far this season will descend upon the region early next week. That said, the chill won’t hold and another surge of above normal warmth will spread northeast by the latter parts of next week.
It should also be noted that analog data and research also would lean heavily in the cold direction to wrap up October and these findings also favor a chilly November… More on that later! Speaking of later, an updated 7-day will be posted this evening. Make it a great day!