Happy Halloween; Active Pattern Continues As We Move Into November…
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Unsettled Pattern Continues…
Wet weather will return Halloween, but we still believe the more concentrated rain will be “shoved” to our southeast as trick-or-treating begins in earnest across most central Indiana neighborhoods. Unfortunately,…
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Looking At The Week Ahead: Strong Winds This Afternoon And A Wet Pattern Is On Deck…
I. Showers followed by wind: A fast moving storm system will sweep through the Ohio Valley as we close the weekend. Showers will accompany the leading edge of this storm system (this morning), followed by strong and gusty winds (even stronger than this morning) this afternoon and evening. In some cases, winds will gust 45 to 50 MPH. Hunker down!
II. Wet Halloween: A cold front will approach the state Tuesday evening into our Halloween. Widespread rain is expected Wednesday, BUT the silver lining may be that the bulk of precipitation will be shoved to our southeast before most trick-or-treaters take to the streets.
III. Chilly Open To November: Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town behind the cold front and set the stage for an unseasonably chilly open to November. Generally, lows will fall into the middle 30s and highs will top out in the upper 40s for the first few days of the month.
IV. Raw Saturday: It’s a “rinse and repeat” scenario as next weekend opens raw and wet thanks to a new storm system moving through the region. Gusty showers and unseasonably cool temperatures can be expected Saturday. Note the possibility of wet snow to fall on the northern periphery of the storm system through IA, MN, and WI. (Signs of the times).
V. Wet Pattern: After a long stretch of dry weather through the balance of October, a big shift in the pattern is taking place now and will continue to promote well above normal rainfall as we move through the first couple weeks of November. In some cases, the upcoming (10) days alone may yield 3″ to 4″ of rain in some areas of the region.
Chill Forecast To Dominate As We Close October & Open November…
When we look forward to the overall pattern as we wrap up October and open November, we see good general agreement between the GEFS and EPS in a “blocky” look, including an eastern trough. This is a stormy signal.
There will be an attempt at a significant eastern storm around Halloween- give or take a few days. The specifics associated with this storm are difficult (at best) to pin point from this distance. When thinking ahead towards Halloween, keep the potential of wet conditions, strong winds, and chilly temperatures at the forefront. Stay tuned.
What’s much more clear is that the pattern will continue to promote a colder than average feel during the period.
Chilly, But Overall Dry Pattern Until Perhaps Around Halloween…
The short and medium range weather pattern will be highlighted by a colder than average regime, but one that’s also drier than normal.
The positive PNA will continue to support the mean trough position in the central and eastern portion of the country as we rumble into late October.
As we look ahead, there are growing indications a more significant storm may impact the general region as we get closer to Halloween. This is the next time frame we’re closely monitoring for the potential of an impactful storm system. Given the overall setup, we would be surprised if this particular storm didn’t present a wintry side, as well, but it’s simply too early to know the details from a couple of weeks out. Stay tuned.
