Category Archives: Halloween

Friday Morning Rambles…

I. A mostly dry, but breezy weekend is dialed up! A couple light showers may scoot across western portions of the state Saturday, but “light” is the key word.

South winds are expected to gust between 20-25 MPH at times over the weekend. This will deliver milder air with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to around 70° Saturday and Sunday.

II. An active week is on tap next week with (2) strong cold fronts slated to move through the region.

The first boundary will result in widespread showers and embedded thunder Monday. Most can expect around half an inch of rain with this system to open the work week. Cooler and blustery conditions will return into midweek.

The second cold front will move though late Thursday into Friday and feature another quick pop of rain (relatively light amounts expected at this time) followed by the coldest air mass so far this autumn heading into next weekend.

The air mass will be cold enough to ignite for the first lake effect snow outbreak of the season next weekend.

Finally, we still need to monitor the prospects of additional upper level energy that may try and result in a cold rain or wintry mix just before Halloween. Regardless, Halloween is looking quite chilly this year…

III. Our official annual winter outlook will be released later this month. The latest sea surface temperature anomalies have to make central and eastern winter weather lovers drool. The persistent warmth in the NE PAC should promote a more sustained western ridge/ central and eastern trough this winter when compared to the past couple. More on this and many other factors (including the Modoki Nino event) in the near future…

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Pattern Evolution Through Late October…

The teleconnections are aligning in a manner that favors a colder than average period of weather by late-October standards. Note the PNA trend positive while the EPO heads negative. The AO and NAO also follow suit.

The sum of all of the above should feature a predominant western ridge for late month with a persistent eastern trough- at times deeper than others.

Add in the fact that the MJO is anticipated to swing into Phase 2 and this further serves to increase confidence in the colder shift.

The models are focusing in on the colder close to the month and though specifics will continue to vary from run-to-run, the primary message that we want to convey is to expect a colder than average 2nd half of the month with an active storm track. As pops of more “winter-like” air get involved behind one or two of the late month storms, pre-Halloween flakes may fly across a portion of the Ohio Valley.

Days 3-8
Days 8-13
Days 10-15

Given the pattern progression and anticipated teleconnection states, we think it’s wise to ensure the kiddos have a warm Halloween costume this year!

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VIDEO: Predominantly Colder Than Average Pattern Takes Hold; Timing Out Storm Systems Through The 2nd Half Of October…

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VIDEO: Rain Develops By Evening; Potential Of Pre-Halloween Snow?

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Taste Of Winter Before Month’s End?

A cold front will whip through central Indiana Tuesday evening. Showers will accompany the frontal passage, but we still don’t anticipate much in the way of significant moisture across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall totals in excess of 0.50″ will likely fall across drought-stricken areas downstate.

Colder and blustery conditions will be with us Wednesday and Thursday, including wind chills in the upper 20s at times Wednesday morning.

A moderating trend will get underway this weekend as a gusty southwesterly breeze takes hold on the backside of retreating high pressure. This will lead to a couple of days of above normal warmth early next week (not quite done with the 70s just yet).

We’ll continue to monitor for a wet and stormy time of things Monday PM into Tuesday. The severe threat is to be determined and will require fine tuning as we push ahead over the next several days.

Once this area of low pressure and associated cold front blow through, colder air will arrive on gusty northwest winds by the middle to latter portions of next week.

This will set the tone for a rather significant colder shift as we get set to put a bow on the month of October. A secondary and more significant trough will descend into the region just after Day 10. With a developing negative EPO, positive PNA, and MJO heading for Phase 2, it’s time to start “beating the cold drum” a bit harder. In fact, latest 500mb charts would indicate there’s the potential of at least a little wintry mischief present to go along with the colder shift.

This should at least kick up the lake effect snow guns for the first time this season, and we’ll have to monitor things for the possibility of “backside” energy digging south at the base of the trough that would present the possibility of a little early season snow across parts of the Ohio Valley region as Halloween week nears…

Times, they are, indeed, ‘a changing…

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