Category Archives: Hail

Severe Threat Later Tonight, But Some Questions Linger…

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather that includes central Indiana, primarily for potential thunderstorms late today and tonight.

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Primary Threats:

  • Large hail
  • Damaging straight line winds

Discussion:

There are a few questions regarding the potential of severe weather across our immediate region.  It’s unclear how leftover outflow boundaries from thunderstorms during the overnight will interact as they push east.  That said, it’s possible these boundaries could help ignite a couple of clusters of thunderstorms across Iowa and Illinois later this afternoon.  This activity would then ride southeast.  Should we get storms to fire, they would likely hold together as they approach western and central Indiana.  CAPE will reach 2000-2200 J/kg this evening and low level moisture will be on the uptick, as well.  We’ll have an updated post this afternoon after we have a chance to see if convection (thunderstorms) fires to our west.

Enjoy your Saturday morning!

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Focusing On Wednesday Evening Severe Potential…

Good afternoon!  We wanted to cut a video discussing our thinking around timing and primary threats from any severe weather that gets going across central Indiana tomorrow evening.

4km NAM forecast radar suggests a stormy time of things Wednesday evening. We discuss in your afternoon video update!
4km NAM forecast radar suggests a stormy time of things Wednesday evening. We discuss in your afternoon video update!

 

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Sunday Night Thunder

Our nice weekend is set to continue for another 18-24 hours with another unseasonably cool night ahead. While humidity will increase during the afternoon Sunday, most of Sunday will be dry, albeit warmer.  High temperatures will climb into the middle 80s for many central Indiana communities.

Times will begin to change as we go into Sunday night as just the beginning of a series of convective elements come together to impact the region through Tuesday.  Thunderstorms will likely rumble into far western portions of the state as early as 4-5pm.  Speaking of far western portions of Indiana, the updated severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlights western Indiana for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.  Again, this is a late day severe weather risk with damaging wind and large hail of greatest concern.

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Forecast simulated radar shows the convection rumbling east Sunday night and most of central and eastern Indiana get in on the thundery action before Sunday is finished.  Here’s a look at what the radar may look like from 8pm Sunday to midnight Monday morning.

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While the storms will likely weaken as they track east, a strong thunderstorm or two is certainly possible for the greater Indianapolis region Sunday night.  We’ll keep you posted with future updates.  Have a relaxing Saturday night.

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Severe Storms South Today; Breath Of Fresh Air Coming…

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An area of showers and thunderstorms will push through central Indiana in a much weaker state when compared to what this complex was like to our northwest 12 hours ago.  All the while, heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds can be expected as the storms rumble through central Indiana.  We’ll go through a break in the action during the late morning hours, but caution that a second area of showers and thunderstorms will develop during the early afternoon. These storms will likely reach severe levels as they encounter a warmer, more unstable air mass across southern portions of the state. If you have travel plans say to areas such as Louisville this afternoon, certainly keep an eye to the sky and have a means of receiving the most updated weather information.  All modes of severe weather will be in play across southern Indiana this afternoon, including hail, tornadoes, and straight line wind.

We’ll undergo a regime change tonight and that will set the stage for a delightful close to the work week, including lots of sunshine, low humidity and cooler temperatures.   Our next storm system is slated for a Sunday arrival.

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Tuesday Night Update; Southern Indiana Under Gun For A Big Severe Weather Day Wednesday.

It’s been a bit of a frustrating afternoon as I’ve been trying to upload a video discussing our thoughts around tomorrow for a couple of hours….only to no avail.

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So this post will have to do.  Really our thoughts remain unchanged concerning the way things unfold late tonight and Wednesday.  The severe thunderstorms to our northwest continue to rumble as of the 10 o’clock hour.

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The Storm Prediction Center holds firm to the Slight Risk for the Ohio Valley and northern Tennessee Valley Wednesday.

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We wouldn’t be surprised to see a portion (most likely the southern half) of the Slight Risk area upgraded to a rare Moderate Risk area with the update from the SPC early Wednesday morning.

Our thinking hasn’t changed in that we believe the current complex of severe storms arrives into north central Indiana in a weakened state early Wednesday morning.  The rush hour will likely include heavy rain and plenty of thunder, though we think the majority, if not all, of this activity Wednesday morning will remain below severe levels across our immediate region.  Showers and thunderstorms will rumble into the area, especially north of the city during the predawn hours and include plenty of heavy rain.

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A second round of showers and thunderstorms will fire during the afternoon Wednesday and is likely to turn severe across south central Indiana and points south Wednesday afternoon.  Dangerous conditions are a good bet, including large and destructive hail, damaging straight line winds, and tornadoes.  Certainly if you have plans from Indianapolis to Louisville or Cincy tomorrow afternoon and evening please keep tuned to the latest weather conditions and radar updates.  Further north, the severe potential is much less certain.  We continue to think areas north of the I-70 corridor will struggle to shake the stability provided from the early morning rain and storms.  We caution though that this remains a now-cast scenario and will require a close eye tomorrow afternoon.

Looking farther ahead, we’ll enjoy a refreshing blast of air Thursday-Saturday with bright sunshine, low humidity, and cooler temperatures.  Warmth and humidity will return Sunday with rainfall potential around 1″ additional precipitation.  This will be followed by yet another big push of cooler, drier air early next week.  More on this in the days to come.

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