Updated 02.26.24 @ 7:30a We’ll go from “chamber of commerce” type weather to open the work week, including pushing for a record high later this afternoon, to rounds of storms…
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A closed upper low will pivot across the Ohio Valley over the next couple days. Our quiet start this morning will give way to “bumpy” times by evening. We expect scattered, but strong to severe storms to fire up after 5p. A couple of these could produce hail/ wind and we can’t rule out a quick spin up tornado with this setup.
The Storm Prediction Center highlights most of the area in a “marginal” risk of severe weather today, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this area (particularly western and central IN) is upgraded to a “slight” risk at some point.
Storms should become most widespread just before sunset and continue into the overnight hours.
As we transition into Wednesday, morning convection will likely still linger before greatest concentration of rain and storms pivots to eastern and southeastern parts of the state by afternoon.
By the time all is said and done, many central Indiana rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.50” and 0.75” of rain but there will be a few lucky folks that accumulate much more (type setup capable of 1”-2”+ in localized areas).
As we get set to rumble into the weekend, drier air will return and plentiful sunshine is expected. We still expect an unseasonably warm open to October with an extended stretch of days in the lower to middle 80s- good for 10° to 15° above the norm.
Despite a few light morning showers, our Sunday will feature dry conditions through the remainder of the daylight hours along with increasing sunshine. The disturbance responsible for Saturday’s severe weather and unsettled conditions is on the way east while we wait a new potent disturbance on deck from the west. Unfortunately, this second disturbance has eyes set on our region tonight and will pose a dangerous overnight severe weather risk.
All modes of severe weather will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of quick spin-up tornadoes. It wouldn’t surprise me if a portion of the current ‘Slight Risk’ area is upgraded to an ‘Enhanced Risk’ across southern IN in future SPC (Storm Prediction Center) updates this afternoon.
From a timing standpoint, storms should approach western Indiana towards 10p, or so and then continue to advance east, southeast into the late evening and overnight hours.
Discrete cells may try and organize into more of a congealed line as we push closer towards midnight and, as such, the threat of a damaging wind event will become the eventual primary concern as we move through the early Monday morning hours across the southern half of Indiana.
Before heading to bed this evening, be sure to have a means of getting the latest warning information as there will likely be multiple warnings issued late this evening and into the early portion of the overnight.
Quieter (albeit briefly) weather conditions will return as we move through the first couple days of the new work week.
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