Category Archives: Hail

Steamy Thursday Ends Stormy…

The Storm Prediction Center has placed southwestern Indiana under a Slight risk of severe weather, with extreme southern Indiana now included in an Enhanced risk.

Upper level energy will push east this afternoon and combine with an unstable air mass, along with unseasonably hot and humid air (highs today will reach the lower 90s across the southern half of the state with dew points around 70°), resulting in explosive thunderstorm development this evening.  Storms will rumble east during the nighttime hours before exiting off to the east and diminishing during the early morning hours.

We target the time frame of 6p to midnight for greatest storm coverage and the possibility of severe weather.  While the greatest threat of severe is just south of the city, itself, I think all of central IN is in play for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight.  In addition to locally heavy rain, stronger storms could pose a damaging straight line wind threat along with large hail.

A couple of storms may still fire Friday afternoon in the warm and humid air mass, but a boundary will pass Friday evening, allowing less humid air to arrive Saturday.  On that note, even cooler and less humid air awaits early next week.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Timing Out Storm Chances Tonight…

We continue to monitor things closely for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight.  As of this morning, we still believe greatest threats of severe weather…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

No Comments Dew points, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Plant '18, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos, Windy

Another Busy Week…

I. On the heels of a record-setting Easter snow event, attention will turn to showers (by this evening) and even the potential of gusty thunderstorms (Tuesday).

Forecast radar 10p.
Forecast radar 5a Tuesday.

Best chance of the possibility of a strong to severe thunderstorm will lie within the southern half of the state, primarily south of the I-70 corridor.  Greatest threats are large hail and damaging straight line winds.

All of us stand the chance of a thunderstorm as the cold front sweeps through the state Tuesday night.

Forecast radar 8p Tuesday.

II.  Much colder air will rush back into Indiana Tuesday night and the air will grow cold enough to allow lingering precipitation to transition to snow showers Wednesday morning.  Don’t expect any accumulation this go around.

III.  Our next focus is on the prospects of late week/ weekend snow.  Models will continue to struggle with the finite details over the next few days.  I’m not so sure the suppressed look displayed currently is the correct one.  Let’s remember, this time last week models were taking our Easter storm well to our south.  We’ll keep a close eye on things over the next few days.

IV.  Regardless of whether we get additional snow down or not, a first-class late season arctic blast will drill south this weekend.  This will be cold enough to keep temperatures in the 30s for highs Friday and Saturday.  Brutal stuff for early-April when average highs are around 60…

No Comments Arctic Cold, Easter, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Severe Weather Sunday; Much Colder Next Week…

Highlights:

  • Clouds more bark than bite today
  • Stormy setup Sunday
  • Trending colder next week

All Eyes On Sunday…The cold front that passed through the region Thursday night and setup the gorgeous close to the work week is lifting back north this morning as a warm front.  This will result in overcast conditions today, areas of sprinkles or drizzle later in the day, and rising nighttime temperatures.  Scattered thunderstorms will develop across central Indiana late tonight with a warmer and increasingly moist environment.

Sunday will certainly be a day to remain weather-aware.  The overall setup hasn’t changed from what was discussed yesterday with a warm and moist southwesterly air flow in place ahead of an approaching cold front and associated area of low pressure.  Additional ingredients in play suggest we need to monitor the threat of large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially tornadoes.  Individual storms (potential super cells) are expected to fire across central and northern portions of the state Sunday afternoon into early evening.  These will be capable of quickly pulsing to severe levels and include potential of large hail, as well as tornadoes (particularly in the vicinity of the warm front which is expected to be draped across north-central parts of the state).  Individual cells are anticipated to “morph” into a squall line Sunday evening, including potential of a quick spin-up tornado, as well as damaging straight line winds.  With a moisture-rich air mass in place (precipitable water values are expected to approach 2″ Sunday evening), locally heavy rainfall is also expected.

All of our “excitement” will come to an end overnight Sunday and we’ll trend much colder (and calmer) during the new work week ahead.  Our next storm system will pass by to our south Tuesday, but may be close enough to spark a light shower across central portions of the state.  Drier and colder conditions build in later in the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Hail, Harvest'17, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm