Category: GFS
I’m just getting settled back in from Auburn, AL, but wanted to update a couple of items before a complete 7-day post in the morning.
1.) Rain is continuing to become more widespread to our southwest and will overspread southern and central Indiana during the overnight into the wee morning hours Tuesday. Most communities will accumulate 0.50″-1.00″ of needed rain, but a few locally heavier totals (closer to 2″) can be expected. The HRRR forecast rainfall totals by 11am (when most of the rain will be ending across even our eastern counties) looks solid and we agree with this for the most part. Note the heavier forecast totals across southwestern Indiana.
2.) A cold front will sweep the state Friday night into Saturday morning and result in a MUCH cooler weekend. Temperatures will fall to well below normal levels (by 5-8 degrees on average) over the weekend and result in a perfect, early fall-like, feel! Highs Saturday through Monday will likely only range in the lower to middle 70s with overnight lows in the lower 50s (a few readings into the 40s can be expected outside the city).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/01/beneficial-steady-rains-coming-overnight/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Hail, Heavy Rain, NAM Model, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm
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August 21, 2014
Good morning and happy Thursday! This will be a quick post this morning before a more extensive update and 7-day outlook later this evening. The SPC highlights our region for…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/21/storms-and-heat/
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Filed under Canadian Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, NAEFS, NAM Model, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos
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August 18, 2014
Tonight’s video update highlights:
- Tuesday severe threat
- Big-time weekend heat
- Cooler pattern to wrap up August
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk of severe weather Tuesday across the state.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/18/severe-weather-threat-tuesday/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Heavy Rain, HRRR, NAM Model, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos
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August 10, 2014
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to impact central Indiana, along with localized flash flooding (precipitable water values are currently above 2″ in spots and suggest localized very heavy…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/10/unsettled-couple-days-ahead-before-a-taste-of-fall-by-mid-week/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Canadian Model, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms
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August 4, 2014
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Dry Start To The Week…High pressure will remain in control of our weather today and supply lots of sunshine and seasonable temperatures.
Rain Chances Increasing…A cold front will drop closer to the region Tuesday and will help to serve as the trigger in widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. Mid week is where our questions lie and they have to do with just how far the front makes it before stalling. A combination of the GFS, European, and Canadian forecast models shows a variety of results. The European is most progressive and dries the region out quickly mid week with high pressure building into the area. The Canadian is the exact opposite as it paints a wide swath of heavy rain through the heart of the state (2″ type rains through late week). Finally, the GFS is in between the two. We think the GFS has the best idea as of now, but we’ll keep a close eye on things as we move through the next couple days. Stay tuned.
Pleasant Weekend…We’re confident on a weekend that should feature beautiful late-summer weather conditions- lots of sunshine, seasonable temperatures, and low humidity!
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Forecast radar shows widely scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday. This is just the beginning of an unsettled few days ahead mid week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/04/mid-and-late-week-questions/
Severe clear can be used to sum up the start to our Sunday. High pressure is in control and will result in a sun-filled day with temperatures trying their best…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/03/sunday-morning-a-look-at-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/
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Filed under European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Hail, Heavy Rain, JAMSTEC, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Winter thoughts...
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August 2, 2014
Happy Saturday! Upper level energy will hang around the region today, creating a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Similar to Friday, a few of these could be strong…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/02/saturday-morning-rambles-3/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
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July 31, 2014
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Continued Cooler Than Normal…The Great Lakes region and northern Ohio Valley will remain under the influence of a swirling upper low. This will keep better rain shower and embedded thunderstorm chances across northern parts of the state this afternoon. We’ll maintain mention of a widely scattered shower here this afternoon and again Friday, but coverage will be reduced from that which we’ve seen over the past couple days.
Questionable Saturday…Forecast models certainly aren’t in agreement on our weekend forecast and range from a dry and warm Saturday (European solution) to one that features plenty of cloudiness and showers around (GFS solution). The GFS has been the most consistent on our weekend forecast the past several days and we’ll lean our Saturday forecast more in that direction for now. Stay tuned.
Slow Warming Trend Ahead Of Next Storm…A warming trend will continue into the early and middle parts of next week as temperatures reach seasonal to slightly above average levels for a couple days. Our next significant storm system appears to be on the horizon late next week and include rain and storm chances along with another cool down.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/31/focusing-on-saturday/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, HRRR, Long Range Discussion, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos
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July 22, 2014
Busy times continue in the good ole forecast office! This morning’s video talks about the one-two punch of cool air inbound to close July and looks at our increasingly-needed rain…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/22/tuesday-morning-video-update/
We write this tonight with an anomalous pattern in place. Here we are in late July and we’re watching an organized storm system (non-tropical) roll through the Deep South while…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/18/a-look-at-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going-3/
