Dec 07
Updated 12.07.23 @ 7:53a Long winded discussion this morning diving into the long range pattern evolution through the holidays, including drivers behind the transition we believe is ahead. We also…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/07/video-a-lot-to-discuss-this-morning-between-the-short-term-and-long-range-pattern-evolution/
Nov 20
Updated 11.20.23 @ 5:30p
I. The weather pattern will turn progressively colder as we move through the Thanksgiving holiday. This isn’t anything earth-shattering by any stretch, but temperatures running 4° to 8° below normal is pretty stout. There’s also still the potential of an early season arctic “jab” prior to us getting out of the first 3-5 days of December, but that likely comes after this weekend- if at all.
As a whole, it’s a dry pattern that will accompany the chill, but we will want to continue keeping an eye on energy that will eject off the Rockies over the weekend. At times models can underplay these features only to have to correct stronger as we grow closer to the potential event. Will that be the case this time? Impossible to say from this distance- just something we’ll continue to monitor with such a busy travel period. As it is today, modeling wants to “string” the energy out which would essentially be a light or non-event.
II. While the pattern drivers all are aligned for a cold open (first few days) of December, there’s reason to believe a period of milder than normal air will take foot just after- say sometime between 12/5 and 12/8, or so. That said, we’re in a bit of a fork in the road so to speak.
The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is going to pop positive at least for a period of time prior to mid-December. This strongly argues for a relaxation of the cold regime that we’ll endure to open the month. Guidance differs on the handling of the MJO, however. Should the American guidance be correct in taking things into Phase 4, when combined with what we see transpiring with the EPO, then we’re off to the races for at least a 7-10 day period of much warmer than normal temperatures. That said, European guidance collapses the MJO into the “null” phase and even hints at things emerging again in the colder phases come mid December. While we still have time to sort through this “mess,” the idea here is that the cold open to the month will moderate to slightly to moderately above normal for a 7-10 day period leading us into mid-month. Thereafter, I’m becoming increasingly bullish for a renewed cold pattern developing towards the Christmas and New Years holidays…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/20/dinnertime-rambles-talking-thanksgiving-weekend-and-early-december/
Nov 09
Updated 11.09.23 @ 10:49a
With Thanksgiving only 2 weeks from today (incredibly hard to believe), we’re able to start to get a better idea on the overall weather pattern as the “official” kickoff to the holiday season nears. The first point we want to drive home is that we should begin to see a much more active regime evolve during this 2 week period. From a temperature perspective, the pattern overall continues to look milder than average, but there will be a couple opportunities for transient pops of colder air, potentially around the all-important Thanksgiving holiday, itself.
Note how modeling sees the more active pattern evolving over the next 3-4 weeks (green represents above normal precipitation). – A significant change not only for our neck of the woods but certainly for our friends and neighbors down south (badly needed for a region suffering an expanding drought. Speaking of which, all of the dry/ droughty southern tier should reverse in significant fashion as the active Nino storm track gets going over the coming months. As the pattern continues to evolve into the ‘24 spring and summer, the south-central severe drought will be erased.
Despite attempts of troughs to roll into the Ohio Valley, they will struggle with staying power over the next 3-4 weeks. The latest JMA Weekly product and Euro/ GFS ensemble blend looks very solid given where the pattern drivers currently reside.
Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3-4
The pattern drivers of a primarily positive EPO, negative PNA, and MJO in 8/1 (all unchanged from our post earlier this week) all suggest a predominant eastern ridge, western trough placement over the upcoming 2-3 weeks.
We’ll continue to keep close tabs on the regime, especially centered on 11/22 – 11/26.
Make it a great Thursday!
Side note: Confidence is increasing that this Nino will evolve into a central-based event which will up the chances of colder/ snowier prospects come late December and on into January. More on that later next week in a more extensive update specific to this transition.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/09/lr-update-thanksgiving-and-early-december/
Sep 04
Updated 09.04.23 @ 8:58a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/04/video-23-24-snow-nugget-rain-chances-return-tuesday-into-wednesday/
Aug 22
Updated 08.22.23 4:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/22/video-heat-scattered-strong-late-week-storm-potential-as-heat-breaks/
Aug 18
Updated 08.18.23 @ 4:35a
Despite the blazing heat that awaits in the week ahead, another push of unseasonably cool and refreshing air that we’ll enjoy to open the weekend is a sign that autumn isn’t that far away.
As the El Niño continues to strengthen heading into fall, we’re bullish here at IndyWx.com that an unseasonably warm start to autumn is on tap. While not nearly as hot as what the week ahead will entail, we think we’ll remain close enough to the ‘mean’ upper ridge position to result in at least slightly to moderately above normal temperatures for September as a whole (say in the + 1.5° to + 3° range).
The latest European extended product and JMA Weeklies back this idea up, including a drier than normal look. While we’ll have to be on guard for the potential of ridge rider storm clusters as the ridge retrogrades west at times, the overall pattern through at least mid-September sure appears drier than normal as a whole.
While not quite as toasty, the GFS extended product is also painting a dry regime into mid-September.
From a temperature perspective into mid September, we prefer a blend of what the JMA/ Euro and GFS are suggesting. Again, slightly warmer than normal overall o/ the upcoming 3-4 week period.
As we evolve deeper into September and closer to early October, we believe the threat of an early season cold blast, including frost threat will show up a few weeks earlier than normal this season. This likely won’t be a full scale, permanent shift to cold, but rather a chilly “jolt.” Given the evolving Niño, we’ll have to likely wait until later into October before we have something more meaningful and sustained from a cold weather standpoint. . .
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/18/long-range-outlook-flips-the-page-into-meteorological-fall/
Jul 14
Updated 07.14.23 @ 6:15a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/14/video-storm-chances-ramp-up-saturday-looking-into-the-pattern-evolution-into-mid-late-august/
Jun 22
Updated 06.22.23 @ 4:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/22/digging-our-heels-into-the-pattern-over-the-next-2-weeks/
Jun 21
Updated 06.21.23 @ 7:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/21/video-where-rain-will-be-most-widespread-to-close-the-week-potential-sunday-storms-and-looking-ahead-to-early-july/
Jun 20
Updated 06.20.23 @ 8:45p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/20/video-diving-into-the-pattern-evolution-over-the-course-of-the-next-couple-weeks/