Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:23p
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Jan 22
Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:23p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/22/video-short-and-long-term-ideas-any-thoughts-of-winters-demise-premature-in-our-opinion/
Jan 22
Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:56a While portions of western and northern IN will see some light sleet and freezing rain this morning, the concern here remains on what lies ahead tonight…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/22/video-icy-setup-tonight-gives-way-to-foggy-wet-but-milder-times-ahead/
Jan 21
Updated 01.21.24 @ 7:51a
This is the 4th morning of the new year where most, if not all, of central Indiana is waking up to subzero temperatures.
While temperatures will moderate this week, our January “thaw” won’t come without a few bumps in the road. A wet and active pattern will accompany the milder air, and we’re likely also going to be dealing with periods of dense fog early and mid week.
The onset of this wet shift will come with a period of freezing rain Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Due to the extremely cold surface, it’s icing on roadways and sidewalks that worry us most as opposed to elevated (tree limbs/ power lines) icing. Anticipate slick and hazardous travel Monday night into predawn Tuesday before temperatures “warm.” If possible, we highly recommend simply staying off area roadways during this time frame.
Our next round of moderate to locally heavy rain will push into the Ohio Valley and central Indiana Wednesday into Thursday.
The late week storm may even take on a bit of a wintry flavor Friday into Saturday.
Despite this sneaky potential of a little wintry fun, it’ll be within what’s otherwise going to be a much warmer than normal period over the upcoming couple weeks (of course, once we get past tomorrow).
Not only is the MJO rolling into traditionally warm phases for this time of year, but our teleconnection suite is aligned in a manner that also strongly argues for milder to much milder than normal conditions across our neck of the woods.
Eventually, we anticipate a return of colder than normal temperatures and another opportunity for ice/ snow but likely not until we get to mid-February and beyond. If you didn’t have a chance to catch our Long Range update, we recommend listening here, including February and thoughts into meteorological spring.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/21/sunday-morning-rambles-talking-about-icing-monday-evening-wet-week-ahead-and-potential-of-a-wintry-return/
Jan 20
Updated 01.20.24 @ 11:50a Arctic high pressure will build overhead this weekend and while we still have a couple days of very cold weather to contend with it won’t be…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/20/video-bitter-weekend-gives-way-to-a-significant-thaw-wet-pattern-develops/
Jan 18
Updated 01.18.24 @ 7:22a We continue to eye an accumulating snow event to close out the work week and this will precede arctic reinforcements that once again will take us…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/18/video-snowy-windy-and-turning-colder-yet-again-big-warmup-on-deck-next-week-but-comes-with-unsettled-weather/
Jan 17
Updated 01.17.24 @ 5:22p
While we’ll still contend with a couple of rounds of accumulating snow to close out the work week, latest model guidance is trending drier with both systems- at least across most of central Indiana. The Thursday morning snow band will lead to a couple inches of powder across north-central and northern IN tomorrow morning, but the majority of this band should fall apart before reaching Indianapolis. We’ll continue to keep close eyes on overnight trends, but travel impacts aren’t likely until once north of Kokomo as of now tomorrow morning.
The next round of snow will arrive Thursday night- now likely well after the evening rush hour. While this still doesn’t appear to be a particularly heavy event (2″-3″ north of Indianapolis, including northern ‘burbs and 1″ to 2″ from Indy and points south), the cold surface will allow this light snow event to create slick road conditions overnight and into our Friday. Snow removal clients, we still recommend planning to activate salting and plowing overnight and through Friday.
We also continue to closely monitor a localized, but heavier snow band that will likely oscillate through a portion of central Indiana through the afternoon Friday. Localized heavier snow accumulations and gusty winds will be associated within this snow band and we’ll have to treat this more as a “nowcast” situation once that LES band gets organized.
Even outside of this LES band, gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH will lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially on west-east roadways and in the open country. Drifting and blowing snow will continue through Saturday in these areas.
After another bitterly cold weekend, a significant warming trend will get underway next week. That’s not before we likely have to deal with a round of freezing rain Monday night and into Tuesday. Many times, forecast guidance can be too aggressive in dislodging true arctic air and I’m afraid that will be the case in this instance. Today’s trends have likely started to pick up on this icy threat to open the work week and while we likely aren’t talking about a true ice storm, travel impacts should be expected Monday night into Tuesday morning before we transition to a plain ole rain event.
Thereafter it’s “game, set, match” for much milder, but wet times through the rest of the week and on into next weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/17/evening-update-snow-wind-trends-icy-setup-early-next-week-and-more-on-the-pattern-flip-ahead/
Jan 16
Updated 01.16.24 @ 12:34p
Today and most, if not all, of Wednesday will be plain ole cold but at least precipitation free. We’ll have to watch short term guidance closely for a band of snow that will develop across northern Indiana overnight and into Thursday morning. We think this snow band will sink south into at least north-central Indiana after sunrise Thursday before falling apart likely around Indianapolis. A quick 1”-2” of snow is likely across northern and north-central Indiana Thursday morning.
Our next opportunity of snow (area wide) will move in Thursday night and Friday morning. This will be a much higher ratio type snow (think 20:1) than typical with the cold, arctic airmass in place. We should easily be able to accumulate 2”-4” with this event, with the potential of a couple 4”+ reports. (Snow removal clients, plowing and salting will be activated by Thursday evening).
A fresh round of bitter, arctic air flows in as we kick off the weekend. With a fresh snowpack, another round of subzero lows should be expected. Look for highs in the 10s Saturday and 20s Sunday. Wind chill values will dip to around -20° as we kick off the weekend.
Though a moderating trend will kick in in full force next week, we’ll have to watch for the potential of a freezing rain and/ or sleet event Monday night into Tuesday (arctic air is always slower to erode than usually modeled) and a true shift to a wet pattern for the middle and latter part of next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/16/snow-event-and-arctic-reinforcements-to-close-the-week-active-storm-track-ahead/
Jan 31
Updated 01.31.23 @ 6a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/31/video-cold-and-quiet-for-now/
Jan 25
Updated 01.25.23 @ 7:50p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/25/video-the-bad-the-ugly-and-embracing-new-challenges-ahead/
Jan 25
Updated 01.25.23 @ 7:32a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/25/video-morning-update-on-our-snow-storm-looking-ahead-to-additional-challenges-this-weekend-and-next-week/