Category: Forecast
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Canadian Model, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms
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August 4, 2014
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Dry Start To The Week…High pressure will remain in control of our weather today and supply lots of sunshine and seasonable temperatures.
Rain Chances Increasing…A cold front will drop closer to the region Tuesday and will help to serve as the trigger in widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. Mid week is where our questions lie and they have to do with just how far the front makes it before stalling. A combination of the GFS, European, and Canadian forecast models shows a variety of results. The European is most progressive and dries the region out quickly mid week with high pressure building into the area. The Canadian is the exact opposite as it paints a wide swath of heavy rain through the heart of the state (2″ type rains through late week). Finally, the GFS is in between the two. We think the GFS has the best idea as of now, but we’ll keep a close eye on things as we move through the next couple days. Stay tuned.
Pleasant Weekend…We’re confident on a weekend that should feature beautiful late-summer weather conditions- lots of sunshine, seasonable temperatures, and low humidity!
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Forecast radar shows widely scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday. This is just the beginning of an unsettled few days ahead mid week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/04/mid-and-late-week-questions/
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Upper Level Disturbance…An upper level disturbance will help lead to better coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and again Saturday. While everyone won’t get wet, more neighborhoods can expect to see a passing storm than the past couple of days. Temperatures will remain below seasonal levels.
Drying Out And Warming Up…We’ll build a drier and warmer picture into your forecast for the back half of the weekend on into the first half of the new work week. High pressure should supply a partly cloudy sky and while temperatures will moderate from the cool readings of late, they certainly won’t be too hot for early August. All-in-all, very comfortable readings can be expected with lots of sunshine.
Watching A Potential Late Week Storm…Forecast model guidance is a bit inconsistent at this time period, but we’re still eyeing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms towards the end of next week. More details to come as we move forward.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Upper level energy will move overhead late today and Saturday and help lead to better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/01/unsettled-1st-half-of-the-weekend/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
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July 31, 2014
Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. 58/ 80 60/ 81 60/ 81 59/ 82 62/ 84 63/ 86 66/ 87 …
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/31/focusing-on-saturday/
Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. 56/ 77 55/ 79 58/ 81 58/ 81 58/ 81 56/ 83 57/ 85 0.05″-0.10″ 0.05″-0.10″…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/30/continued-cooler-than-normal-pm-showers/
Tonight’s video update takes a closer look at rain and embedded storm chances over the course of this evening and again Wednesday. Additionally, we look more in-depth at the mid…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/29/tuesday-evening-video-update-cooler-than-normal-pattern-continues/
July 2014 is already much cooler than normal month-to-date across the Ohio Valley and Mid West region. With a continued much cooler than normal pattern in place through month’s end,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/29/early-fall-feel-continues/
Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. 58/ 71 50/ 73 56/ 78 54/ 78 57/ 80 57/ 80 57/ 79 Trace 0.05″-0.10″…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/28/autumn-feel/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, NAM Model, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
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July 27, 2014
Good morning and happy race day Indy! This morning’s visible satellite shows our cold front off to the northwest still. The pre-dawn storms have exited to the southeast, but we…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/27/sunday-morning-weather-rambles/
Concern continues to grow in regards to a possible enhanced damaging wind threat with an evolving complex of storms Saturday night. It wouldn’t surprise us to see the Storm Prediction…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/25/enhanced-damaging-wind-threat-saturday-night/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
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July 25, 2014
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0.10″
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0.50″-1.00″
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0.50″-1.00″
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We’re keeping a close eye on showers and thunderstorms to our northwest (across Iowa and Minnesota) this morning as these will continue to drop southeast with time today. We know we’ll see clouds increase locally from this complex of storms and some of the latest short-term model data brings in light rain during the afternoon as the complex drops southeast into IL and IN- though in a much weaker state. We’ll include mention of an afternoon shower due to this.
As we move into the weekend concern remains around the possibility of multiple thunderstorm complexes impacting our area. The Storm Prediction Center includes us in a Slight Risk of severe weather Saturday and Sunday, including the chance of some storms producing a damaging wind and hail threat. We target Saturday morning and again Saturday night and Sunday for the best chances of thunderstorm complexes. Saturday night/ Sunday morning may provide the greatest risk of severe storms, and we’ll continue to monitor. We also note high precipitable water values present this weekend suggesting the threat of some localized flooding where storms train. Widespread 1″ rainfall can be expected this weekend, but we do caution some areas will see locally heavier totals in excess of 2″.
A much cooler, drier and fall-like feel is still slated to blow into town early next week, setting the stage for an incredible close to July and open to August!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/25/stormy-weekend-before-another-push-of-autumn-weather/
