Category: Forecast

Mar 03

Icy Morning…

Screen Shot 2015-03-03 at 7.58.16 AMRough Travel Conditions This Morning…Freezing rain and freezing drizzle is making a mess of the morning commute.  Thankfully, eventually we’ll climb above freezing around, or just after, noon.  Before then, icy travel conditions can be expected.  Take it slow or postpone travel until the afternoon if possible.  By this afternoon, temperatures will climb above freezing and plain ole rain can be expected into tonight.  We don’t anticipate flooding issues locally as rain won’t be heavy enough and temperatures won’t be warm enough to result in significant melting.

Much colder air will blow into town late tonight and Wednesday morning and as a second area of low pressure tracks along the front, widespread accumulating snow is a good bet across the southern half of the state Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.  As of now, we still target areas along and south of I-70 most at risk for snow accumulation Wednesday afternoon.

A much drier, but cold, pattern will be with us to wrap up the work week, including more record cold a good bet.  Dry and slightly milder conditions are ahead over the weekend before a weak system may deliver a light snow or rain shower early next week.

Looking ahead, it appears as if we finally may deal with a much milder, spring-like pattern around mid March.  60s for highs anyone?!  That said, concerns remain that we reverse this and go colder than normal late March.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″ (south)
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″

In case you missed it this morning, we posted an article on meteorological winter and you can find it by clicking here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/03/icy-morning/

Mar 03

A Word On Meteoroligcal Winter

We wanted to take a moment and discuss the 2014-2015 meteorological winter.  Going into the winter, we knew this would be one of many challenges. The nearly ideal SST profile…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/03/a-word-on-meteoroligcal-winter/

Mar 02

A Lot To Discuss…

Good evening, friends!  As promised, there’s a lot on the weather menu over the course of the upcoming several days.  Let’s get right into the details.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 3a-12p for all of the region to account for the sleet and freezing rain situation we’ll deal with late tonight into the first half of Tuesday.  We still expect significant travel issues and overall impacts to the Tuesday morning commute.

Forecast radar shows freezing rain spreading into the region between 3 and 4am.

1Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will continue for the better part of the morning hours as temperatures likely won’t climb above freezing until early Tuesday afternoon, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast.

Forecast temperatures at 12p Tuesday.

hires_t2m_indy_24We still don’t anticipate many big time flooding concerns as a.) temperatures won’t warm all that much (we MAY reach 40 Tuesday evening, but that’s a big question mark) and b.) most of the heavy rain will remain south of central Indiana.

Here’s expected liquid-equivalent totals through Wednesday morning.

2The next concern is the threat of accumulating snow for central and southern portions of the state Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Arctic high pressure will limit the northern extent of significant precipitation, but, as mentioned previously, energy rounding the base of the trough will ignite another wave of low pressure to move along the pressing arctic front.  As of now, we target areas along and south of the I-70 corridor most under the gun for a potentially impactful snow storm Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

3The individual GFS ensemble members have also been trending north and overall more excited about snow prospects, as well.

7The other item on the agenda is a shot of record cold in here for late week.  Sub-zero lows are a good bet by Friday morning.  Highs Thursday will push for a new record low maximum temperature.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/02/a-lot-to-discuss/

Mar 02

Icy Tuesday Morning…

We continue to be very concerned about the likelihood of an icing event across central Indiana late tonight into early Tuesday afternoon. A significant snowpack in place won’t allow temperatures…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/02/icy-tuesday-morning/

Mar 01

Busy Weather Week Ahead…

Screen Shot 2015-03-01 at 10.09.08 AMImpressive Snowstorm…Heavy snowfall rates are occurring within localized bands through central and north-central Indiana as we type this.  Within those bands, expect an additional 1″-2″ today.  That’s on top of widespread 6″ to 7″ reports throughout the region.  (By the way- thank you so much for your snowfall reports and photos)!  We love to see them!

Outside of the heavy snow bands, a general light snow will begin to diminish by late afternoon/ early evening as drier air moves in behind a cold front.  Colder air will also roll into town tonight and Monday.

Our next storm will provide a wintry mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain Tuesday morning before transitioning to rain.  That said, data that suggested we would see 50 degree+ highs Tuesday are finally coming to the realization we have quite the snowpack across the area.  We’ll rise into the lower 40s, but cold air will rush right back in here Tuesday night and Wednesday and potentially set us up for a very interesting mid week period.

For now model data ranges between a significant winter storm to simply dry and bitterly cold.  We’ll split the difference for now and maintain mention of snow in our Wednesday forecast as secondary energy develops a wave of low pressure along the pressing front.  Does that winter storm impact the Ohio Valley or areas of the Deep South?  We’ll continue to sort through the details.  I will say the UKMET has been most consistent of our forecast models over the past several weeks, and it’s quite bullish on the Ohio Valley winter storm scenario.  Never a dull moment around these parts…

Regardless of what happens Wednesday, fresh bitter cold air will pour in here to wrap up the work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 8″ – 11″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/01/busy-weather-week-ahead/

Feb 28

Touching Base On Saturday Evening…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/28/touching-base-on-saturday-evening/

Feb 27

Snow Storm Brewing Saturday Night-Sunday…

We continue to closely monitor our developing situation Saturday night and Sunday. After reviewing all of the data this afternoon, we still have no real reason to believe the initial…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/27/snow-storm-brewing-saturday-night-sunday/

Feb 27

Initial Snowfall Map: Saturday Night-Sunday

Here’s our initial snowfall map for Saturday night through Sunday.

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We think snow may begin flying as early as early as 8 or 9 o’clock Saturday evening, growing in intensity and coverage during the overnight into Sunday morning.

We’ll have a more more in-depth forecast discussion around our thinking later tonight.  As a disclaimer, remember the snowfall accumulations won’t necessarily follow the clean lines above.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/27/initial-snowfall-map-saturday-night-sunday/

Feb 26

Weekend Snow Storm Brewing…

As the weekend approaches, we’re getting set for another winter storm across the Hoosier state.

After two brutally cold days in Friday and Saturday, our eyes will shift to a potentially hefty snow storm late Saturday night into Monday morning.  This will be a bit of a different set up from what previous storms this winter have provided.  A relatively “flat” wave of low pressure will move out of the southern Plains Saturday and slowly through the southern Ohio Valley Sunday.  Widespread precipitation will overspread the region late Saturday night and continue through most of Sunday, and even into early Monday in some cases.  This will be a relatively long duration event and the impacts will likely be high from a travel perspective Sunday into Monday morning.

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Concerning precipitation type, we still believe the combination of a bitterly cold pattern and a widespread snow pack will play a significant role in this event.  It’s always difficult to get more than a wintry form of precipitation when moisture “attacks” true arctic air.  As of now we see this storm being an all snow event for places around and north of the I-70 corridor.  South of there, it’s possible mixing gets involved- including potentially some freezing rain downstate.

Due to the fact that this should be a rather prolonged event, significant snowfall will be possible where precipitation stays (or remains predominantly) snow.

Here’s our best guess where the heaviest snowfall potential lies currently.  Remember, snow totals won’t necessarily follow the clean lines below.  This should be used as guidance at this point for where we’re focusing our attention for the potential of heaviest snowfall totals.  Being that this is still an event late Saturday night through Monday morning, obviously things are subject to change.  We’ll have our first specific accumulation map posted Friday evening.  Stay tuned.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/26/weekend-snow-storm-brewing-2/

Feb 25

Busy AND Wintry Forecast…

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 7.27.09 AMBrief Break From The Severe Cold, But Not For Long…Today will be the “pick of the week” as milder air and some sunshine lead to a decent Wednesday. (It’s funny we say “milder” with highs that barely rise above our average low, but we’ll take what we can get).

A clipper system will impact the region tonight through Thursday and spread light snow across the area.  This won’t be a big deal, but accumulations around 1″ will be possible (perhaps an isolated 2″ report here or there).  The bigger deal?  Fresh bitterly cold arctic air pushing in here to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  Record-smashing cold and dangerous wind chills will be with us.

The next storm system will spread snow and a wintry mix through central Indiana Saturday night into Monday morning.  As we mentioned last night, this is a fluid situation and it’s still far too early for specifics.  That said, central Indiana is very much in play for another accumulating wintry event this weekend.

A final piece of energy will deliver more precipitation early next week.  As of now we forecast a wintry mix of snow and sleet to transition to rain as milder air pushes in from the southwest Tuesday.  Again- much can still change.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.50″ – 0.75″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 3″ – 6″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/25/busy-and-wintry-forecast/

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