Category: Forecast

Jan 23

Foggy Start; Winter Returns…

Screen Shot 2017-01-23 at 7.15.25 AMHighlights:

  • Dense fog this morning
  • Turning much colder this week
  • Scattered snow showers late week

Low Beams On…Dense fog engulfs most of central IN this morning.  Make sure you have the low beams on this morning as you head off to work and school and allow extra time.  A shower is possible at any point today, but particularly across the eastern half of the state.

Our next storm system will push through mid week.  Southwest winds will increase Wednesday and scattered showers will accompany a cold front moving through the state.  Temperatures will fall Wednesday night into Thursday and scattered snow showers will develop.

The theme late in the week and for the weekend will be a wintry one.  Upper level energy will interact with the colder conditions and result in scattered snow showers from time to time into the weekend.  The active northwest flow will remain into next week, as well, and we’ll have to keep a close eye for the prospects of a more “robust” clipper impacting the region just beyond this forecast period.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/foggy-start-winter-returns/

Jan 21

Spring-Like Weekend, But Changes Loom…

Screen Shot 2017-01-20 at 10.25.29 PMHighlights:

  • Spring-like weekend
  • Unsettled times continue
  • Winter returns

Rare January White Leg Alert…The big news this weekend will be temperatures close to 30 degrees above normal and a legitimate spring feel.  Average highs across central IN this time of year are in the middle 30s and temperatures this afternoon will zoom to the lower-middle 60s.  Patchy morning fog and drizzle will be with us, but we’re remaining optimistic we could squeeze a couple of looks at the sun during the day.  Count yourself lucky if you do, indeed, see that weird giant bright thing in the sky! 😉

A developing storm system will track east across the central Plains and into the TN Valley this weekend.  This will result in a significant severe weather outbreak across the south and increasing rain chances here for the back half of the weekend.  The magnitude of the rain and potential embedded storms remains in question, but shower chances will at least be on the increase Sunday afternoon into the evening.  We note short-term, higher resolution modeling hitting the locally heavy rain threat harder than global data early this morning (centered on Sunday evening) and we’ll keep a close eye on things as most central IN communities remain waterlogged.  Winds will increase Monday- NE shifting to the N and gusts to 40 MPH with leftover showers continuing.

Tuesday will present a bit of a break in our active pattern before a fast-moving cold front blows into town Wednesday with scattered showers amidst blustery conditions.

We turn colder (you knew this incredibly mild pattern had to break at some point) late week and upper level energy will help ignite snow showers with the return of the wintry feel Thursday into Friday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/spring-like-weekend-but-changes-loom/

Jan 16

Warm, But Unsettled Week…

Screen Shot 2017-01-16 at 7.26.31 AMHighlights:

  • Unseasonably warm week
  • Multiple rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms
  • Eyeing winter’s return next week

Have The Rain Gear Handy…While we’ll enjoy unseasonably mild temperatures, the wet and unsettled theme we’ve been dealing with as of late we’ll continue this week.

Most of the daytime today will feature more dry time than wet with just scattered showers expected before more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms arrive by nightfall.  Wet and periodically stormy times continue tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday.  After a predawn high in the mid 50s, temperatures will slowly fall during the day Tuesday before remaining steady in the middle to upper 40s for the balance of the afternoon.

We may get a brief (rare) look at the sun Wednesday as we’ll be in between weather systems, but have no fear, as our next storm will be developing to our south and arrive with showers Thursday.  🙂  Rain and perhaps a thunderstorm continue Friday, especially through the first half of the day.

The majority of Saturday will feature dry and warm (early spring-like) conditions, but clouds will increase during the second half of the day and showers will push north into the state at night.  Windy, wet conditions continue Sunday.

Longer-term, forecast models continue to paint a significantly colder, wintry pattern as we go through the last week of the month.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-but-unsettled-week/

Jan 15

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

1.) January, month-to-date, is running slightly above normal at IND (+1.2 F) and nearly 1″ above normal in the precipitation department.  Keeping true to the winter, overall, greatest cold departures are centered over the northern Plains and northern Rockies.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_20172.)  Showers will creep north overnight into Monday morning, but shouldn’t amount to much.  They will be scattered in nature across central Indiana.

hrrr_ref_indy_183.)  More widespread rain and embedded thunder will develop Monday night into Tuesday morning.  This should amount of widespread half inch to one inch totals across the viewing area.

hires_ref_indy_37

hires_ref_indy_404.)  A moist southwest flow will help push a warmer regime northward for the second half of the week.  Though warm, we’ll also have to deal with periods of rain as disturbances track northeast.  We circle Friday and Sunday as the wettest days and remain optimistic Saturday will feature dry and unseasonably warm conditions (lower-middle 60s).  Between the rainy days Friday and Sunday, additional rainfall totals of 1″-2″ seem like a good bet.

SW Flow

D75.)  The evolution of the pattern just beyond the 7-day period we’ll begin to take on an increasingly wintry look and we remain confident on a flip back to wintry conditions as we roll through the last week of the month.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on a storm system in the 8-10 day period.  It’s obviously way too early to discuss specifics, but this will be the time the pattern is beginning to turn back towards a wintry regime…

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_11

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-afternoon-rambles-2/

Jan 14

January Thaw For The New Week Ahead…

Screen Shot 2017-01-14 at 4.13.32 PMHighlights:

  • Damp, chilly Sunday
  • Milder week ahead
  • Spring-preview late next week

Improvements Coming…Most of tonight will feature dry conditions along with temperatures settling back below freezing (most of central IN will fall into the middle to upper 20s).  Another surge of light precipitation will arrive Sunday morning into the afternoon and this could begin as a period of freezing rain from the city and points north.  Similar to today, we don’t expect any major problems from the freezing rain and all of the region should warm above freezing during the afternoon.

While Monday could feature a quick-hitting shower at any given time, more widespread steady rain will push into central Indiana during the day Tuesday, along with breezy conditions.  Those breezy southwest winds will help give temperatures a boost into the middle 50s for afternoon highs.

We’ll shift that southwest wind around to the northwest Wednesday and this will help push cooler air into the state for mid week.  Despite the cooler feel, we’ll remain well above average with breezy conditions.  (Average highs in central Indiana are in the middle 30s this time of year).

The big news for the latter portion of the forecast period will be a true spring-like feel developing as we rumble into the weekend.  In fact, temperatures will surge well into the 60s next Saturday.  Modeling isn’t in total agreement on rain chances with a moist southwest flow in place.  We’ll take the “optimistic” route at this time and forecast a dry Saturday, understanding that we’ll have to maintain a close eye on things.

Quick heads up, longer term data continues to suggest we’ll flip into a much colder and stormy pattern as we wrap up January and head into February.  Winter is far from over…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/january-thaw-for-the-new-week-ahead/