Category: Forecast

Feb 11

Pleasant Start; Nighttime Showers…

Highlights:

  • Sunshine gives way to showers
  • Colder mid-week
  • Warmth returns

Showers Arrive Tonight…The weekend is off to a pleasant start, but clouds will increase this afternoon and light showers will follow by evening, continuing into early Sunday morning.  Rainfall amounts won’t be impressive, with most around one-quarter inch.  It’ll be an unseasonably mild weekend, with highs today pushing close to 60° and early highs Sunday around 50° before cooler air spills in for the second half of the weekend.

The majority of the upcoming work week will be precipitation-free.  A dry cold front will pass Tuesday evening and this could result in a couple of snow flurries or light snow showers.  As of now, the better coverage of snow showers appears to be to our east for our friends in Ohio.  We’ll turn colder Wednesday and Thursday, but have no fear as moderating temperatures will quickly return as we roll into next weekend.  In fact, the period just beyond the current 7-day looks downright spring-like, including highs that may push close to 70° early in Week 2.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pleasant-start-nighttime-showers/

Feb 09

Bitter Feel Today…

Screen Shot 2017-02-09 at 7.43.52 AMHighlights:

  • Frigid Thursday
  • Milder, but wet this weekend
  • Turning colder next week

Bundle Up…Temperatures are running much colder than this time 24 hours ago with most waking up to the teens.  Throw in a strong and gusty NW wind and the ‘chill factor has fallen to as low as zero for many neighborhoods this morning.  Thankfully, sunshine should be with us this afternoon.

Our wind flow will shift around to the southwest and usher in a milder brand of air by Friday afternoon.  Eventually, that flow will also be an increasingly moist one, as well, and showers will develop Saturday, continuing into Sunday.  We expect the cold front to slip through the state Sunday night and allow colder air to return.

Questions abound early-mid next week.  Whether or not we can get a piece of energy to dig in and create wintry “fun and games” is yet to be determined.  Modeling is going back and forth on that idea, versus, multiple, weaker waves capable of producing scattered snow showers in the colder air mass.  We’ll continue to monitor things.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bitter-feel-today/

Feb 08

Heavy, Wet Snow “Thump” This Afternoon…

The set-up:

A cold front is stalled across TN and lower Ohio Valleys this morning.  Meanwhile, upper level energy is moving out of the north-central Plains.  This upper level energy will continue to slide southeast and “feed” a developing surface low along the stalled front by evening.  Strong frontogenesis is forecast and this will aid in development of localized heavy snow bands and associated intense snowfall rates by afternoon, continuing into the evening.  (If you’re interested in learning more about frontogenesis and it’s impact on winter weather, please read this fantastic paper).  Here’s our updated snowfall forecast.  Please note snow amounts won’t necessarily follow the clean lines below, but this is our best idea as of now.

SnowEvent2.8.17FinalTiming:

We expect initial light to moderate snow to impact northern areas this morning, but it’s not until this afternoon when the “real deal” begins.  The onset of heavy snow will set-up just north of the city and the “bulls eye” with this event from a heavy snow perspective may very well paint itself across Indy’s northern suburbs, including several hours of heavy, wet snow from 12p-5p.  Moderate to heavy snow will then shift south to encompass the city, itself, mid to late afternoon, including the rush hour.  We highly recommend getting home early today if at all possible as the heaviest snowfall rates for the city, itself, will likely center on the evening rush.  Things will likely be very, very messy for travel as heavy wet snow falls.  In periods of heaviest snow, visibility near zero can be expected, especially just north of the city.

Forecast radar 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 4p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 4p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 6p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 6p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Snowfall should begin to diminish and pull east between 7p-8p for most of central Indiana.  Cold air will follow as lows tonight dip into the middle teens for most with a significant snowpack down.  Highs Thursday will only top out around 20.

As always, be sure to follow us on social media (Twitter: @indywx, Facebook: IndyWx.com, Instagram: IndyWxCom) for more updates on the go!  Be safe and happy snow to all!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/heavy-wet-snow-thump-this-afternoon/

Feb 07

Attention Turns To Wednesday Snow…

After a day of spring-like warmth and thunder, Old Man Winter will stage a comeback Wednesday.  Let’s get right to our snowfall forecast:

SnowEvent28171stCallTiming:

Snow will overspread north-central parts of the state Wednesday morning.  Most of this “initial round” of snow will remain north of the city, itself.

hires_ref_indy_21It’s not until we push into Wednesday afternoon and evening that more widespread snow will move through central Indiana, including Indianapolis.

hires_ref_indy_29

hires_ref_indy_31Periods of moderate to locally heavy snow can be expected through central and north-central parts of the state Wednesday evening, especially between the hours of 3p-7p.  This will be a wet snow and though the snowfall intensity should be impressive at times, it’ll have a hard time accumulating from what it otherwise could be if the ground was cold.  With that said, we do anticipate snowfall rates to overcome initially marginally cold air and “warm” surface temperatures.  Our forecast calls for a dusting to 1″ for the city, itself, increasing to 1″-3″ north of the city- encompassing most of north-central Indiana.  Roadways will likely become slushy with wet snow accumulation Wednesday evening.

Brief Shot Of Arctic Air:

Temperatures will fall into the middle-upper 10s for most of central Indiana by Thursday morning with highs Thursday only topping out in the lower to middle 20s.  The arctic air won’t stick around as we zoom back into the lower 40s Friday after a very cold start (upper 10s).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/attention-turns-to-wednesday-snow/

Feb 07

Buckle Up: Spring, Winter, Spring…

Screen Shot 2017-02-07 at 7.04.56 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of storms Tuesday
  • Snowy Wednesday for some
  • Warming back up this weekend with storms

Dramamine Required…The “tug of war” weather pattern will continue through the forecast period with winter and spring each having difficulty taking control for any length of time…

Walking out the door this morning will have you checking the calendar to see if it, indeed, is early February.  As we type this Tuesday morning, temperatures are in the lower 60s across many central IN neighborhoods.  That unseasonably warm air mass will help fuel t-storm development through the mid afternoon hours and a couple of these storms could reach severe levels, including damaging winds.

The cold front will sweep through the state this afternoon putting an end to the storminess and resulting in colder air spilling into the region tonight.  A disturbance will quickly move into the colder air mass Wednesday and this will result in an area of snow developing during the day.  This is a tricky system as the recent warm, wet ground would argue against much, if any, accumulation.  However, localized banding features likely will lead to more intense snowfall rates across portions of north-central IN Wednesday afternoon-evening and this would overcome the warm surface temperatures and lead to local slushy accumulations.  We feel at this time, the best bet for a potential 1″-2″ slushy snowfall will be just north of the city and we’ll have a snowfall forecast map out this evening (want to give the 12z modeling a good look).

We’ll turn much colder Thursday before wrapping up the work week with a windy, milder feel Friday.

The next storm will arrive over the weekend and serve to give the thermometer another spring-like look, but, similar to today, storms will follow Sunday…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/buckle-up-spring-winter-spring/