Category: Forecast
Highlights:
- Damp, chilly Sunday
- Milder week ahead
- Spring-preview late next week
Improvements Coming…Most of tonight will feature dry conditions along with temperatures settling back below freezing (most of central IN will fall into the middle to upper 20s). Another surge of light precipitation will arrive Sunday morning into the afternoon and this could begin as a period of freezing rain from the city and points north. Similar to today, we don’t expect any major problems from the freezing rain and all of the region should warm above freezing during the afternoon.
While Monday could feature a quick-hitting shower at any given time, more widespread steady rain will push into central Indiana during the day Tuesday, along with breezy conditions. Those breezy southwest winds will help give temperatures a boost into the middle 50s for afternoon highs.
We’ll shift that southwest wind around to the northwest Wednesday and this will help push cooler air into the state for mid week. Despite the cooler feel, we’ll remain well above average with breezy conditions. (Average highs in central Indiana are in the middle 30s this time of year).
The big news for the latter portion of the forecast period will be a true spring-like feel developing as we rumble into the weekend. In fact, temperatures will surge well into the 60s next Saturday. Modeling isn’t in total agreement on rain chances with a moist southwest flow in place. We’ll take the “optimistic” route at this time and forecast a dry Saturday, understanding that we’ll have to maintain a close eye on things.
Quick heads up, longer term data continues to suggest we’ll flip into a much colder and stormy pattern as we wrap up January and head into February. Winter is far from over…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/14/january-thaw-for-the-new-week-ahead/
More widespread precipitation is spreading across central Indiana this morning. Most of this precipitation is falling as freezing rain.
Radar at 7:19a.
Modeled forecast radar continues to show moisture streaming across the region through around the lunchtime hour before diminishing.
9a forecast radar
12p forecast radar
Temperatures will remain around 30-32 degrees along and north of the I-70 corridor as this rain falls so it’ll freeze on contact. Allow extra time if you must travel and slow down. Due to our phenomenal road crews and marginally cold temperatures, we don’t expect major travel issues this morning, but do use caution if traveling. A light glaze of ice (around 0.10″) is possible on elevated surfaces, including tree limbs and power lines.
Temperatures will go above freezing this afternoon across most of central Indiana and precipitation will end. Highs both today and Sunday should top out in the middle 30s across the region.
5p forecast radar
Lows tonight will settle back down into the middle to upper 20s, but dry conditions should remain for most of the night.
10p forecast radar
Our next round of precipitation looks slated for a Sunday morning arrival and, similar to this morning, this precipitation will likely fall as a mixture of light rain and light freezing rain.
Updated 7-day out later! Have a great Saturday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/14/saturday-morning-freezing-rain-update/
Light freezing rain and drizzle has been falling across central Indiana this evening, mainly from the city, itself, and points south. A light glaze of ice has been reported into the forecast office in Monrovia and Plainfield.
For the next several hours, patchy light freezing rain and drizzle will continue, but nothing in a widespread, “uniform” fashion (great news for those night owls out and about).
However, we do note some of the higher resolution forecast models suggesting a waive of more widespread precipitation arriving into central Indiana Saturday morning. This most likely pushes in sometime between the hours of 7a-9a and encompasses the heart of the state, including Indianapolis.
This “slug” of moisture will continue to fall across central Indiana through the morning hours before tapering off and diminishing around lunchtime. The afternoon and evening should be void of any widespread precipitation of significance.
While this won’t be a crippling event by any stretch of the imagination, be careful for slick spots Saturday morning and allow road crews room for salting. In general 0.05″-0.10″ of glaze still seems like a good bet for most central Indiana neighborhoods by lunchtime Saturday.
More in the morning! Have a great night!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/13/surge-of-more-widespread-precipitation-saturday-morning/
Highlights:
- Turning colder
- Freezing rain develops Friday night
- Wet times continue
Active Times; Excessive Rainfall Risk Next Week…The overall weather pattern remains very active AND very wet. By the time all is said and done, an additional 3″ of rain is possible for a widespread portion of the region by the middle of next week, with locally heavier amounts. Lets time it out.
The focus in the shorter-term is for colder air to build in. Temperatures today will fall (after a spring-like feel during the wee morning hours). We’ll be in the 30s by mid to late afternoon and below freezing later this evening. Arctic high pressure will continue to force cold, dry air south across central IN as we wrap up the work week. At the same time, warm, moist air aloft will ride over the cold air trapped at the surface and trouble looms by Friday night. We expect light freezing rain to develop after dark and continue into Saturday morning. As disturbances move along the arctic boundary, additional precipitation (mostly light) will overspread central Indiana from time to time over the weekend. We want to continue to reiterate that a 1-2 degree temperature difference will mean a tremendous difference between additional ice accumulation and plain ole cold rain. Thinking is that the freeze line will shift north of the I-70 corridor Saturday afternoon before settling south towards I-70 again Saturday night and Sunday morning. We still have time to fine tune things, but as of now it seems likely that anywhere from 0.10″ to 0.20″ of glaze (freezing rain) will be possible across most central IN communities Friday night into Saturday.
We’ll get rid of the freezing rain early next week and bust back into a warm southwesterly air flow. Models are struggling with the precise details of how things evolve in the early-mid week period, but confidence remains very high on continued wet times. In fact, the GFS pulls a slug of 1.5″ precipitable water values (PWATs) north into the state the middle of next week and suggest the heavy rain threat remains Tuesday and Wednesday. By the middle of next week, we have to start becoming concerned for flood potential across the region.
Hang in there, we’ll see the sunshine return…some day.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/12/weekend-ice-and-heavy-rain-next-week/
Highlights:
- Active stretch of weather begins
- Moderating trend into midweek
- Ice concerns Friday-Saturday
Sunglasses NOT Required…We’re entering the beginning of an active stretch of weather, with an extended period of overcast skies and gloomy conditions. Let’s dive in and take the challenges one-by-one:
Showers develop this afternoon as a cold front moves into the state. Ahead of the front, strong southwest winds will gust upwards of 45 MPH+. A “big hair warning” is in effect. 🙂
A brief shot of colder air will arrive late tonight into Wednesday, but just as soon as it arrives, it’ll leave and temperatures will approach 60 Wednesday night as showers return.
Thursday will be a wet day with periods of rain and slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon/ evening.
Friday is much colder as the arctic front will be to our south, but most of the day looks dry. Moisture will lift north Friday afternoon and evening and with cold air in place, the precipitation should take the form of a mixture of freezing rain and sleet. Periods of freezing rain likely continue Saturday. It’s far too early to discuss amounts and we also want to reiterate the difference of 1-2 degrees will mean a world of difference between areas dealing with ice versus a cold rain. The “battle zone” looks to take place across central IN. If you have travel plans Friday night and Saturday, please keep abreast of later forecasts and updates.
Regardless of whether or not we’re dealing with icy conditions across central IN during the first half of the weekend, temperatures will warm during the second half of the weekend and change any frozen/ freezing precipitation over to plain ole cold rain Sunday into Monday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/10/prolonged-stretch-of-gloomy-weather/
Highlights:
- Late night light freezing rain develops
- Milder and wet through mid week
- Ice storm potential on the rise late week
Feeling Downright Balmy Out…Temperatures this morning (writing this at 7a) are running close to 20 degrees above where we were this exact time Sunday. 20 degrees has never felt so warm! 🙂 This moderating trend will continue into mid week, including temperatures that approach 60 Thursday. That said, we have a mini “speed bump” to go over tonight and that’s the opportunity for light freezing rain late tonight into the wee morning hours Tuesday. Temperatures should go above freezing just before the morning rush Tuesday, but plan to leave additional time as slick spots may remain. Once we clear the “speed bump,” it’s off to the races in the temperature department through mid week: around 50 Tuesday afternoon and around 60 by Thursday (that’s a late night high Wednesday in the upper 50s). Periods of showers will come with the milder air, centered on Tuesday and late Wednesday into Thursday.
Unfortunately, the milder times don’t last long and we still forecast “trouble” late in the week. The set-up remains unchanged as a big, sprawling arctic high pushes into Wisconsin Friday. This will help “shove” the arctic front through Indiana before stalling along the Ohio River Friday into Saturday. As this is happening, ripples of energy will help ignite periods of precipitation Friday into the weekend. With cold air locked in at the surface, we expect the potential of a rather prolonged period of freezing rain developing late Friday and continuing into the weekend. We still have time for things to change, but from this distance, the predominant precipitation type, unfortunately, appears to be freezing rain. Stay tuned as this could be a high impact event.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/09/busy-weather-week-ice-storm-potential-friday-into-the-weekend/
-
Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Freezing Rain, Rain, Sleet, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy, Wintry Mix
-
January 8, 2017
Highlights:
- Another bitter day
- Moderating temperatures ahead
- Late week ice threat looms
Bitter Cold Gives Way To Moderating Temperatures…The first half of the forecast period is easy, but we caution big time headaches loom and details are far from etched in stone once to the second half of this forecast period.
First thing’s first and that’s today. Look for a continuation of bitterly cold air, but slow moderation will be noted this afternoon: Not AS bitter and lighter winds. We may even crack the 20 degree mark! I know, break out the swim suits, right?! This moderating trend is setting the tone for a more significant jump in the mercury later in the week. Before a “taste of spring” arrives, we’ll have to deal with a brief opportunity for freezing drizzle Monday evening. Temperatures will zoom to around 50 Tuesday and around 60 for mid week. Showers will be with us off and on- focused on Tuesday and Thursday for most widespread coverage.
Then comes the “fun.” A strong, sprawling arctic high will push south into the northern Plains Friday. At the same time, “resistance” from the southeast ridge (that can be thanked for the spring-like feel here Wednesday and Thursday) will result in the arctic front only slowly being able to push south. Ripples of energy, or waves of low pressure, will move along the arctic boundary and result in periods of widespread precipitation Friday into the weekend. As the cold, dense arctic air oozes south, we have concern for icing- freezing rain and sleet Friday into Saturday. Depending on how things evolve, this may continue into Sunday, as well. If you have travel plans this weekend, please keep a close eye on the developments in the forecast from Friday on. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Snowfall: 1.00″
Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/08/changeable-weather-late-week-ice-threat/
Highlights:
- Bitterly cold weekend
- Big shift in temperatures next week
- Icy set-up late next week?
Heavy Winter Gear Required…We’ll watch a significant winter storm impact the southern states this weekend with heavy snow and ice accumulations. Here on the home-front, expect bitterly cold conditions with dry skies. Clouds tonight should keep most areas around zero. That’s frigid in and of itself, but should skies clear, temperatures will easily fall below zero. Very cold conditions remain Sunday.
We’ll back our air flow around to the southwest early next week and this will help give temperatures a big boost by the mid week period. Gusty southwest winds and showers will be with us, as well.
A complex weather pattern will set up to close out the week. The clash of air masses between a sprawling strong arctic high and an equally impressive southeast ridge will be fun to watch, but not to forecast. It’s very possible unseasonably warm conditions of Thursday give way to much colder weather going into next weekend as the arctic high helps “ooze” dense, shallow, cold air south. At the same time, waves of low pressure will move along the pressing arctic front and periods of heavy precipitation will result. Conditions should grow cold enough by Friday into Saturday for the precipitation to fall as an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain across portions of central Indiana. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Trace
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/06/bitter-weekend-changeable-weather-next-week/
Highlights:
- Snow intensifies for a period this afternoon
- Bitterly cold weekend ahead
- Moderating trend early next week
Snowy Thursday…Light snow developed during the predawn hours and made for a slick morning commute across central Indiana. We note a steadier band of snow currently falling south of the city for places like Bedford, Columbus, and Seymour as of this update (9:30a). As additional energy pushes across the state late morning into the afternoon, look for snow to expand in coverage and intensity for a time across more of central Indiana around lunchtime into the early afternoon before sliding off to the east. Our ongoing snowfall forecast remains unchanged:
Conditions will remain bitterly cold (most of today is spent in the 10s), and with even the slightest bit of snow cover, conditions will turn even more frigid to end the week. Area-wide single digits can be expected to begin the day Friday (Saturday and Sunday, as well) with wind chills below zero. Dry conditions return this weekend. We’ll watch as our friends to the south enjoy a winter storm from Alabama, northern GA, into the Carolinas.
Moderating temperatures return early next week and as the warm advection begins Monday, it could help produce a wintry mix by evening before precipitation transitions to rain Tuesday, along with a breezy SW wind.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/05/snow-intensifies-again-early-afternoon-turning-much-colder/
Snow will overspread central and southern Indiana during the predawn hours Thursday morning. Snow, generally light, will continue into the afternoon, but there will be the potential of some localized banding to develop that will lead to higher snowfall rates mid morning into the early afternoon hours. Thinking as of this morning is that the best potential of banding features will be found south of Indianapolis, but this is a fine line and won’t take much to “shove” that potential a couple county rows north. We’ll keep an eye on it.
This won’t be your standard 10:1 ratio type snow as conditions will be very cold throughout the day Thursday (only around 20 for a high). This will serve to “fluff up” a tenth of an inch of liquid to a couple inches of snow very easily. Secondly, with the cold conditions, it won’t take much snow to create slick and hazardous travel throughout central Indiana Thursday. Please plan to allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination Thursday, both during the morning and evening commutes.
Forecast radar 7a Thursday.
Forecast radar 4p Thursday.
Temperatures will remain in the 10s most of Thursday.
Temperatures will fall into the single digits Friday morning and highs Friday will only top out in the teens.
Make it a great Wednesday! More later today!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/04/snowy-thursday/
