Category: Forecast

Mar 11

Winter Finally Shows Up…

Highlights:

  • Much colder than average
  • Snow prospects to open the week
  • Busy pattern continues

Locked In A Cold Pattern…The stretch of spring-like, unseasonably warm, conditions we enjoyed through most of February and to open March will be all but a distant memory once to this time next week.  A major reversal to a colder than normal pattern is now with us and will feature lows into the teens on a few nights over the upcoming week.

Additionally, we continue to highlight the fast-moving northwest flow aloft.  This kind of regime wrecks havoc on forecast models and, accordingly, we have lower than normal confidence in the specifics late in the work week.  Stay tuned.

Before we get to late week, we have a disturbance (that will eventually help feed a blockbuster Nor Easter) that will deliver snow as we open up the work week.  This time of year, snow intensity and time of day mean a world of difference between an accumulating event, or not.  Snow should overspread central Indiana before sunrise Monday and will likely accumulate before the higher sun angle takes over and lighter snowfall rates result in a lack of daytime accumulation.  As reinforcing cold air filters in Monday night, additional light accumulation will be possible in scattered heavier snow showers that will continue into Tuesday.  All-in-all, this doesn’t appear to be a huge event, but a few slick spots will be possible Monday morning before that higher March sun angle gets to work.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

Moving forward, we’re confident on the overall colder than normal pattern that will continue into Saint Patrick’s Day, but, as mentioned above, fine tuning will be required with the potential of a late week storm system to contend with.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/11/winter-finally-shows-up/

Mar 09

Enjoy Today; Winter Returns…

Highlights:

  • Spring-like feel today
  • Much colder pattern developing
  • Accumulating snow early next week?

Colder Pattern Taking Hold…The day is dawning bright and sunshine will be with us through the majority of the day, along with pleasant, spring-like temperatures.  Find a way to get out and enjoy it!  Unfortunately, the pleasant weather will end tonight.

Clouds will increase late in the day and give way to showers during the nighttime period.  A cold front will press south and pull much colder air into the region as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  The suppressed route is still the one most likely for the weekend system and instead we’re left with an unseasonably cold, mostly dry forecast, locally.  We’ll still be on the watch for the potential of some light snow early Saturday, but the more significant, accumulating snow will be shoved south to the TN Valley.  Those beautiful northeast TN and western NC mountains look to be in the “sweet spot” for this storm (plowable accumulations).

Another storm system will track through the Mid West as we close the weekend and open next week.  Consequently, clouds increase late in the day Sunday and snow should overspread the region Monday.  Reinforcing cold air will arrive Tuesday with snow showers and gusty winds.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/09/enjoy-today-winter-returns/

Mar 08

Strong Wind Event; Winter Makes A Comeback…

Highlights:

  • Windy day ahead
  • Colder pattern develops
  • Two snow chances in the days ahead

Hold On To Your Hats…The big story today will be developing strong and gusty winds, especially from the city and points north.  Westerly gusts will approach 50 MPH+ this afternoon and evening.  Hold onto your hats (and steering wheels)!

As we move into the latter portions of the week and into next week, a fast and active weather pattern will develop.  Three disturbances will have at least some impact on our weather between Thursday evening and Tuesday morning.

The first disturbance will result in an increase in cloudiness late Thursday along with an evening shower- especially across far eastern portions of the state.  We’ll turn much colder to close the week and that’s when our second disturbance will approach.  Clouds will increase Saturday and light snow is possible.  Models have trended further south with this disturbance, but we need to keep an eye on this as a last-minute shift north could take place.  As of this update, the most impactful disturbance looks to be the one that arrives Monday into Tuesday.  Accordingly, we’ll forecast developing snow Monday, continuing Tuesday with strong and gusty winds and even colder air.

After a prolonged stretch of spring-like warmth, the upcoming forecast period will serve as harsh reality that Old Man Winter still has some fight left in him.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/08/strong-wind-event-winter-makes-a-comeback/

Mar 06

Rain Coverage Increases; Weekend Winter Storm Brewing?

Highlights:

  • Increasing coverage of showers and t-storms
  • Mostly dry mid week period
  • Weekend wintry fun and games

Busy Week Of Weather…The week is off to an unseasonably mild start as a strong southerly flow continues ahead of an approaching cold front.  That cold front will continue to push east today and sweep through the state Tuesday morning.  Coverage of showers will increase as we go through the late morning and early afternoon hours, but there will still be periods of dry weather today.  Best coverage of rain and thunderstorms will arrive overnight when most are sleeping and end (from northeast to southwest) Tuesday morning.

Mid week is relatively quiet as we begin to transition from a spring-like beginning to more of a winter-like close.  A weak weather system could offer up a few showers Thursday evening, but enthusiasm isn’t high for this to be a big deal.

A more significant storm will move in over the weekend.  This is a complex set-up, but we note anomalously cold air poised to spill south from Canada.  Given the trend of the winter, we’re treading lightly from hitting the big snow theme models currently suggest.  That said, the set-up is one that raises an eyebrow for the potential of a late season, impactful, winter event.  Stay tuned this week as we fine tune the details moving forward.  A word of caution, if we get snow down this weekend, we’ll have to lower temperatures even further for Sunday…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/06/rain-coverage-increases-weekend-winter-storm-brewing/

Mar 04

AM Snow Gives Way To Increasing Sunshine…

Highlights:

  • AM snow ends
  • Windy warm-up coming
  • Early week storms

Snowy For Some This Morning…A narrow band of heavy snow has deposited 1″-2″ for neighborhoods northeast of the city.  Places like Anderson, New Castle, and Richmond were the “sweet spot” for this event.  Thank you for the reports!

As quickly as the snow hit, it’ll depart and be a distant memory this afternoon, as increasingly sunny conditions develop, along with moderating temperatures.  This is the beginning of a weekend warm-up that will send temperatures into the lower 60s Sunday afternoon though we will have to deal with a possible passing shower and strong and gusty southwest winds.

A cold front will sweep through the state to open the work week and help increase overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms Monday- especially during the evening and nighttime hours.  Early showers Tuesday will end and give way to drier, cooler conditions for mid week.

Our next storm system will approach next weekend.  The work week will end with another windy warm-up, along with showers by evening.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/04/am-snow-gives-way-to-increasing-sunshine/

Mar 03

Lots Of Sunshine To Close The Work Week; Moderating This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Sunny, cold close to the work week
  • AM light snow Saturday
  • Moderating with storm chances early next week

Coats And Sunglasses Required Today…We’re closing out the work week with plentiful sunshine, but temperatures will run several degrees below average.  Heavier coats will be required out the door this morning with wind chills in the teens.

A warm front will lift north through the state Saturday morning and should push an area of snow northeast with it.  The potential is present for a coating to less than 1″ of snow as this occurs early Saturday morning, especially for area northeast of the city, itself.  Despite the quick hit of morning snow, sunshine should return later in the day and our winds will shift to the southwest.  This will help temperatures recover late in the day and the moderating trend continues Sunday with PM showers.

A cold front will sweep through the region Monday into Tuesday morning with widespread showers and thunderstorms.  After a warm start to the day, temperatures will fall through the daytime hours Tuesday.  Dry, windy conditions will be with us as we push through the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/03/lots-of-sunshine-to-close-the-work-week-moderating-this-weekend/

Mar 01

Turning Colder To Close The Work Week…

Highlights:

  • Showers with falling temperatures today
  • Rain and snow showers Thursday
  • Cold close to the work week
  • Windy weekend warm-up comes with showers

Downward Trend…Showers will increase in coverage this afternoon and evening as temperatures fall into the 40s (this afternoon) and 30s (this evening).  Certainly plan to carry the jacket with you to work and school as you’ll need it on the way home this evening.

Our next weather maker will be a fast-moving clipper system that will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Gusty showers will blow through central Indiana through the afternoon and evening hours before transitioning to snow showers and embedded heavier squalls (capable of a quick coating where the heavier squalls occur).  A dry, but cold close to the work week is ahead with highs Friday only in the middle 30s.

Just as quickly as the cold air hits, it’ll leave this weekend as a windy warm-up develops.  A flurry or sprinkle is possible Saturday as the warm front lifts north and then showers will increase in coverage, along with a strengthening southwest wind (gusts of 40 MPH +) Sunday.

A strong cold front looks to blow through the region Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms a good bet Monday night into Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall:1.00″-1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/01/turning-colder-to-close-the-work-week/

Feb 26

Transitional Week Of Weather…

Highlights:

  • Warming back up
  • Storms around Tuesday-Wednesday
  • Colder late week
  • Windy warm-up next weekend

Don’t Blink…The second half of the weekend has gotten off to a frosty, but bright start!  Unfortunately, clouds will begin to increase this afternoon.  Thankfully, the increasing clouds won’t keep temperatures from getting a significant boost this afternoon compared to the frigid air of Saturday.

A few showers will scoot through the state Monday, but most of these will be confined to the southern third of Indiana and most neighborhoods should remain rain-free.  A more significant storm system will lift northeast Tuesday and this will provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday (especially late in the day) into Wednesday.  After a midnight high, temperatures will fall through the daytime hours Wednesday.

Another fast-moving, weak, weather maker will impact us Thursday evening into Friday morning.  Scattered showers Thursday PM will transition to light snow showers overnight into early Friday morning.  Friday will be chilly, but moderating conditions return as early as Saturday, along with a strong and gusty southwest flow by the afternoon!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/26/transitional-week-of-weather/

Feb 24

Severe T-storms This Evening Give Way To Much Colder Air This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Record warmth
  • Severe t-storm potential this evening
  • Scattered snow showers Saturday
  • Active pattern next week

Focused On Severe Weather This Evening…Though the day is beginning on a quiet note, we’re concerned it might not end that way, as strong to severe thunderstorms impact central Indiana this afternoon and evening.  The sunshine this morning is actually something that adds further concern for the potential of explosive thunderstorm development later today.  More specifically, we’re bracketing the hours of 4p and 10p for the likelihood of storms impacting central parts of the state (west to east), and some of these may become severe.  All modes of severe weather are in play today, including large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.  Please have a means of getting the latest warning information and ensure you know your family’s severe plan.  Otherwise, we forecast to shatter the record high today as we zoom all the way into the middle 70s with a gusty southerly wind.

Winter will return with authority tonight and set-up a much colder weekend.  That high in the upper 40s Saturday will actually come at midnight with falling temperatures (most of the daytime hours will feature low-mid 30s with ‘chills in the 20s), windy conditions, and scattered snow showers.

A weak weather system is looking less and less impressive for the second half of the weekend, but we’ll continue to keep a chance of light rain in our forecast by evening.

Better rain chances will begin to ramp up Monday evening and become widespread Tuesday, including the possibility of thunderstorms, as well.  The second half of next week will trend colder…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/24/severe-t-storms-this-evening-give-way-to-much-colder-air-this-weekend/

Feb 23

Looking At Friday’s Severe Set-Up…

An updated 7-day forecast will hit later today.  This morning we wanted to take the time to dig in a little deeper on Friday’s severe weather threat.

Severe Weather Outlook:

This morning the latest update from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has expanded the ‘Enhanced Risk’ of severe weather Friday.  This includes all of central Indiana.

Summary:

A sub 1000 mb surface low pressure system will track northeast from northern MO (Friday morning) to central MI (Saturday morning).  Ahead of this, a warm front will lift north through central IN and into lower MI Friday afternoon.  A strong cold front will be located near the MS River Friday morning and barrel eastward, sweeping the state Friday night.

Unseasonably warm and moist air will be drawn northward and encompass the entire region Friday.  Forecast highs should break records tomorrow and be in the lower-middle 70s for most of the region (thinking we see plentiful sunshine during the daytime hours).  Dew points will near 60°. Considering this is late February, those are impressive ingredients coming into play.  The added sunshine tomorrow is actually a bad thing as it will add “fuel to the fire,” so to speak, and help play a role in potentially explosive thunderstorm development Friday evening.

Forecast dew points will reach around 60 degrees across the region Friday afternoon.

Surface-based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is modeled to reach between 1200-1600 J/kg Friday evening across the region.

Threats and Timing:

Most of Friday is going to be quiet, but it’s as we move into Friday afternoon and evening that we’ll need to keep close eyes to the sky and radar.  The potential exists for individual super cells to develop out ahead of an eastward-advancing line of thunderstorms Friday evening.  All modes of severe weather are possible Friday evening, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.  As of now, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p for the period where severe weather may be impacting portions of central IN.

As mentioned yesterday, we highly recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and ensure weather radios are charged with warning modes “on” Friday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/23/looking-at-fridays-severe-set-up/

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