Category Archives: Forecast

Heavy Snow Warnings Ahead?

Good evening, Indy.  As of late morning, we began spreading the word, via our social media accounts, of the need to “beef up” snow totals.  Sure enough, latest data continues to point towards a snowier solution as of this update.  We now think widespread 5″-8″ snow totals will be common across most of central Indiana, but there will be heavier amounts where localized banding sets up.  As expected last night, the transition from sleet to snow was a rather rapid one this evening and we now think this will be an all-snow event for the majority of central Indiana through the duration of the storm.

While it won’t snow the entire upcoming 24 hours, waves of moderate to heavy precipitation will move in from the southwest and result in a widespread heavy snow event Friday.  There’s the chance the National Weather Service will transition Winter Storm Warnings over to Heavy Snow Warnings to account for the all-snow event ahead.

Latest raw data breaks down like this for Indianapolis:

  • GFS:  0.68″ (equates to nearly 7″ of snow on a 10:1 ratio)
  • NAM:  1.00″ (equates to 10″ of snow on a 10:1 ratio)
  • ECMWF: 0.58″ (equates to nearly 6″ of snow on a 10:1 ratio)

We’ll have your updated, custom-built, 7-Day forecast video posted shortly.  For now, here’s a look at what the local radar may look like tomorrow morning when we think another wave of moderate to heavy snow moves back into the region from the southwest:

NAM

Forecast, Forecast Discussion, snow

A Closer Look At Two Winter Weather Events.

Your updated, custom-built, Thursday video forecast can be found to the right of this post in the video player.  We typically update our video forecast during the evening.

Good Morning and happy Thursday!  We continue to monitor the latest data for our upcoming winter weather events.  It’s a busy time of things and by the looks of the overall pattern, I’ll have to stock up on the coffee for the weeks ahead.  Quite honestly, a very cold and snowy pattern appears to be setting up shop now through the end of the month.  Anyone dreaming of a white Christmas? 😉

Here are some quick bullet points for the upcoming few days:

  • Snow/ sleet overspreads the region this evening
  • (2) waves of snow/ sleet move through the region between this evening and Friday
  • Saturday will be a very cold and dry day
  • Renewed snow and potentially freezing drizzle move in Sunday
  • We continue to forecast a total of 3-6″ of snow between tonight and Monday morning

Latest forecast models continue to suggest temperatures fall through the day with a mixture of snow and sleet overspreading the region as early as 3-5pm from southwest to northeast.  We anticipate a rather rapid transition from sleet to snow, especially from IND and points north.  Here’s a look at the latest HRRR simulated radar data, valid tonight at 6 o’clock:

hrrr_ref_indy_15

Here’s a look at the GFS model.  (We think this particular model has a much better handle on things now that we’re closer to the event).  Note the “waves” of wintry precipitation forecast and we agree with this.  Wave #1 arrives for the evening rush with wave #2 arriving Friday morning into the afternoon.

GFS1GFS2GFS3

Additionally, after a very cold and dry Saturday, renewed accumulating snow will overspread the region Sunday, potentially ending as a mixture of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle atop the fresh snow Sunday afternoon.

GFS4GFS5

7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow

Clouds Today; Snow Showers For The Big Travel Day

Good morning and happy Tuesday, Hoosiers!  Yesterday’s forecast went as planned with most folks not receiving any snowfall accumulation and a couple reports of a dusting to half an inch type snow.  We saw a couple local weather sources forecasting 1″ of snow and never understood that call as a lot of dry air had to be overcome initially.

Today will feature lots of clouds and another cold day as we watch a big southern storm begin to “make the curve” and impact the interior east.  Places as close as eastern Ohio will deal with heavy snow tonight and early Wednesday.  Additionally, locations as far south as east Tennessee will have accumulating snow by late tonight and early Wednesday.

Back here on the “home front” we’re looking at our next chance of snow arriving Wednesday afternoon.  The wind trajectory off Lake Michigan should allow a couple of lake-enhanced snow bands to push south into north-central Indiana, primarily from IND and points north.  It’s impossible to pinpoint with any degree of certainty the precise locations of these snow bands, but should your neighborhood end up under one of these snow squalls, don’t be surprised if you pick up a quick coating to 1″ of snow Wednesday afternoon/ evening.

Most model data (below) shows the lake-enhanced snow showers and embedded heavier squalls arriving Wednesday afternoon.  We’ll have a complete forecast update (and probable video) here later tonight.  Make it a great day.

hires_ref_indy_30snow1snow2

Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather