Category: Forecast

Have To Love “Over-Achieving” Clippers…

Good Morning, Hoosiers!  We’re awaking to a snowy commute, as promised, but our little clipper could certainly be called an “over-achiever.” We’re receiving many reports of snowfall amounts of 1.5″…

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Tracking Two Light Snow Producers

Following on the heels of another early winter weather maker, we’re tracking renewed cold blowing into the region and two light snow producers the next couple of days.  The first clipper system will likely deliver some light snow accumulations (generally 1″, or less) tonight into the wee morning hours Monday.  The latest short-term, high-resolution, model data is picking up on this nicely.  While we’re not looking at significant snowfall, it’ll be just enough to lead to a slick Monday morning commute for some, especially from the city and northern ‘burbs.

Here’s a look at the simulated radar valid for this evening at 10 o’clock.  Light snow is spreading back into central Indiana.

HRRR1

Additionally, we’ll keep an eye on yet another fast-moving clipper Monday night and early Tuesday that will also have the potential of dropping a quick light accumulating snow (again, most likely 1″ or less).  All-in-all, we’re still locking tightly into Old Man Winter’s grip the next few days.

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Friday Night-Saturday Winter Storm

As a whole, we still feel good about our accumulation ideas that we’ve had out a few days now…widespread 4-5″ of snow is a good bet for most of central…

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Snow Talk And A Look Ahead Towards Christmas Week…

Latest data in house still suggests a plowable snow is ahead for most of central Indiana this weekend.  We think wintry precipitation expands northeast to encompass all of the region between 7pm-9pm Friday evening (southwest to northeast).  This wintry precipitation still appears to take the form of all snow for IND and points north, but we caution that south-central Indiana communities will have to deal with a mixed bag of precipitation, including sleet and perhaps some freezing rain along with the snow.  The primary snow zone will have no trouble seeing snow amounts of 4-5 inches, but for south-central Indiana neighborhoods, snowfall accumulations appear to be closer to 2 inches, with additional accumulations of sleet also possible.  Needless to say, we feel pretty good about our initial snowfall forecast posted last night in our 7-Day forecast video (always available to the right of these posts in the video player).  The limiting factor, in our opinion, of even higher snowfall totals will be due to the speed of the system.  We think this is primarily a quick 6-8 hour “thump and go” type snow storm followed by some lingering light snow/ snow showers and gusty winds Saturday PM.  The sunshine returns for Sunday along with another surge of bitterly cold air with highs in the 20s.

Friday night-Saturday Snow Storm Highlights:

  • Wintry precipitation arrives between 7p-9p Friday across central Indiana.
  • Primarily all snow from Indianapolis and points north
  • Mixed precipitation south of IND will include sleet and freezing rain
  • Snowfall accumulations of around 2″ south-central Indiana, increasing to 4-5″ amounts along and north of the I-70 corridor.
  • Accumulating snow tapers off late Saturday morning.

Our attention then turns to what may lie ahead Christmas week.  After the chance of some brief “relaxation” from the current bitterly cold pattern, we look to reload the cold with authority around Christmas week.  In fact, if latest data comes to fruition, the current cold would pale in comparison to what lies ahead.  Additionally, a rather significant storm system could precede the arctic blast.  It’s far too early to talk specifics on precipitation type or amounts, but don’t be surprised if a storm of “significance” is on the maps as we approach Christmas week…

The latest ensemble plot from the GFS and European (below) agree on first class cross-polar flow setting up shop, which will help refrigerate the Lower 48 with some seriously bitter air just in time for Christmas.  Stay tuned…

test8

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Heavy Snow Warnings Ahead?

Good evening, Indy.  As of late morning, we began spreading the word, via our social media accounts, of the need to “beef up” snow totals.  Sure enough, latest data continues to point towards a snowier solution as of this update.  We now think widespread 5″-8″ snow totals will be common across most of central Indiana, but there will be heavier amounts where localized banding sets up.  As expected last night, the transition from sleet to snow was a rather rapid one this evening and we now think this will be an all-snow event for the majority of central Indiana through the duration of the storm.

While it won’t snow the entire upcoming 24 hours, waves of moderate to heavy precipitation will move in from the southwest and result in a widespread heavy snow event Friday.  There’s the chance the National Weather Service will transition Winter Storm Warnings over to Heavy Snow Warnings to account for the all-snow event ahead.

Latest raw data breaks down like this for Indianapolis:

  • GFS:  0.68″ (equates to nearly 7″ of snow on a 10:1 ratio)
  • NAM:  1.00″ (equates to 10″ of snow on a 10:1 ratio)
  • ECMWF: 0.58″ (equates to nearly 6″ of snow on a 10:1 ratio)

We’ll have your updated, custom-built, 7-Day forecast video posted shortly.  For now, here’s a look at what the local radar may look like tomorrow morning when we think another wave of moderate to heavy snow moves back into the region from the southwest:

NAM

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