Category: Forecast
Highlights:
- Dry and unseasonably cool close to the week
- Shower chances return
- Watching Harvey
Can’t Ask For Anything Better…Our weather to wrap up the work week will be dominated by cool Canadian high pressure. This will supply plentiful sunshine and unseasonably cool conditions.
A cold front will approach early next week before “washing out” over the Ohio Valley. Shower chances will increase in association with this frontal boundary late Sunday night into early next week. Dry conditions will return by the middle of next week along with slightly cooler than average temperatures.
Tropics: Harvey continues to dominate the headlines and rightfully so. Devastating impacts will be dealt to Texas from a rain, surge, and wind perspective. He will be upgraded to a major hurricane today. It’s still far too early to know how far north Henry will eventually make it late next week before getting absorbed by an approaching trough. Portions of the Ohio Valley are still on the table for potential rain impacts from Harvey late next week. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/25/pleasant-close-to-the-week-harvey-questions/
Highlights:
- Scattered storms with locally heavy rain
- Early fall-like feel arrives
- Dry weather returns
Cold Front Arrives…A cold front is pressing into the state today and generating unsettled weather across the region. Widespread heavy rains fell overnight across northern parts of the state (areas just west of Lafayette have picked up 3″-4″ of rain during the past 24 hours). Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected through early evening before a much drier and cooler air mass arrives tonight behind the frontal passage.
That drier and cooler regime will set the tone for the rest of the week and weekend. High pressure will settle in and provide plentiful sunshine. Additionally, cool, Canadian air will pour south as we progress through the second half of the week. This will result in well below normal temperatures and conditions that will feel more like mid to late September rather than late August.
Tropics: Harvey is likely to stage a comeback over the next few days once he emerges into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Folks with interests along the Texas coastline should certainly monitor Harvey for tropical implications as the weekend approaches. An interior heavy rain/ flood threat will result, as well.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/22/tuesday-storms-then-much-cooler/
August, month-to-date, is running bone-dry. Officially, IND has only accumulated 0.18″ of rain, but that may be changing as early as this afternoon and evening.
We note high resolution, short-term data is becoming more aggressive with the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Initially, storms will impact w-central parts of the state before encompassing more of central Indiana. The following are images of what the local radar may look like at 4p, 6p, and 8p.
With leftover boundaries from early morning storms across northern parts of the state (likely will serve as a “trigger” for PM storm development), combined with a hot and muggy airmass, confidence is increasing on numerous showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana this afternoon and evening. Widespread heavy rain isn’t expected this afternoon, but localized hefty downpours are a good bet with precipitable water values (PWATs) approaching 2″ this afternoon.
Unsettled times remain Tuesday before a much cooler regime looms for the second half of the week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/21/chances-of-needed-rain-increasing-for-central-indiana/
Highlights:
- Hot and humid open to the week
- Scattered early week storms
- Much cooler and less humid times loom
Time To Sweat…A hot and increasingly humid airmass will be with us as we open a new week. While most of the upcoming 24-48 hours will remain rain-free, we will mention chances of an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm Monday. Most will remain free of rain and storms, but those lucky folks who do find themselves under a storm Monday can expect to pick up a quick 1″ of rain. Better overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Monday night into Tuesday.
Typically, a pattern change such as what we’ll undergo this week (summer-like to early fall-like) would yield widespread showers and thunderstorms. However, a look at short-term, higher resolution data isn’t particularly “excited” about widespread significant rainfall across central Indiana. We expect a weakening complex of thunderstorms off to our northwest to drift southeast Monday night. Depending on how quickly this complex weakens will determine rainfall amounts, locally. Additionally, it’s very possible this weakening storm complex will serve to limit new thunderstorm development Tuesday as the cold front moves closer. We do note high resolution data places emphasis on northern and southern parts of the state for heaviest rains and it’s tough to disagree with that idea given what we’re looking at right now. Stay tuned.
Regardless of the rain and storm situation, locally, we’ll all turn significantly cooler by midweek. In fact, temperatures will grow cool enough to feel like mid-September. Dry conditions will carry us into next weekend.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/20/hot-humid-weather-gives-way-to-much-cooler-times/
Highlights:
- Scattered storms
- Saturday showers
- Surge of heat ahead of a late week cool down next week
More Dry Time Than Stormy…A warm and moist southwesterly air flow will have things feeling quite muggy today. This tropical feel will also help fuel scattered thunderstorms by evening, continuing into tonight. While everyone won’t get wet today, those that do have the potential of picking up a quick 1″ in a short period of time. A cold front will cross the state Thursday and will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms going. While this isn’t a uniform soaking, we’ll take what we can get as things have been bone dry around these parts lately.
After a quiet and slightly cooler Friday, an upper level disturbance will deliver another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms Saturday. Dry weather will return to wrap up the weekend Sunday.
Looking ahead, a surge of heat, albeit brief, will have things feeling quite toasty around the Mid West early next week. We think we flirt with, or exceed, the 90° mark both Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorms will increase Tuesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest. Behind the front, data still paints a much cooler regime for the second half of next week; fall-like!
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/16/warm-and-muggy-splash-and-dash-storms/
Highlights:
- Dry open to the work week
- Unsettled times return
- Cooler air heading into the weekend
Storm Chances Begin To Increase…While southern portions of the state will get wet today, dry air should result in a rain-free Monday here across central Indiana. That will begin to change later this week as moisture returns and that muggy summer feel develops for midweek. In addition to the increasingly humid nature to our airmass, a cold front will approach from the west. Coverage of storms tomorrow should remain few and far between (isolated), but overall coverage will increase Wednesday into Thursday (scattered to numerous).
The cold front will sweep to our east Thursday night and result in a beautiful close to the work week, complete with cooler temperatures and lower humidity levels. The weekend will feature a disturbance dropping in from the northwest and this will be sufficient enough to kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening before dry times return Sunday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/14/classic-mid-august-weather/
Highlights:
- Beautiful weekend dialed up
- Humidity returns
- Scattered storms late week
Refreshing Conditions Continue…A cold front settled south of the region last night, allowing drier and slightly cooler air to filter in during the overnight. That sets the stage for the weekend as we can expect dry and refreshing conditions, along with below average temperatures.
Dry skies will continue into the new work week, but humidity will slowly begin to increase once we get to midweek. A southwesterly air flow will develop ahead of our next storm system that will deliver scattered thunderstorms by Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Friday morning, however, early indications suggest next weekend is also dry.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
Cool August: The month has opened impressively cool with a CONUS average anomaly of – 2.75° through the 10th. More specifically to Indianapolis, we’re running 3° below normal through the 11th.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/12/gorgeous-weekend-humidity-returns-next-week/
Highlights:
- Scattered t-storm chances return
- Mostly dry, pleasant weekend
- Rain chances return early next week
Frontal Boundary Moves In Friday…Another sunny, pleasant late-summer day is on tap before a cold front approaches late tonight. This frontal boundary will be responsible for creating scattered thunderstorms Friday across central IN. Current indications suggest rain won’t be widespread or particularly heavy, but don’t be surprised by a local downpour or two as we wrap up the work week.
Dry and pleasant weather will return over the weekend, complete with plentiful sunshine. Our next storm system approaches Sunday night into Monday with the potential of more widespread rain. With that said, there’s considerable model disagreement with regard to overall rain coverage and amounts Monday (European is the most aggressive with widespread rain). We’ll go with a blend of the two for now (scattered thunderstorm chances) and hope for better agreement later today. We’ll provide updates after taking a good look at 12z data.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/10/scattered-storm-chances-return/
Highlights:
- Mostly cloudy start to the work week
- Another cold front moves in
- Turning cooler late in the weekend
Comfortable Late-Summer Week Ahead…Talk about a bust of a Sunday forecast on our part. Dry air and lack of forcing resulted in steady rains remaining across southern parts of the state. With the exception of a couple of brief showers, central and northern portions of the state remained dry most of the day.
While we’ll remain with mostly cloudy skies today, most of the region will once again remain free of any rain. The exception will be across southeastern Indiana where steady rains have been falling this morning. That will continue to move east into Ohio as we push forward. Otherwise, drier air will arrive tonight and set the stage for increasing sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday. With low humidity and below normal temperatures, both days will be great to spend time outdoors, or perhaps a trip to the Indiana State Fair is in order?
Moisture will begin to return by Thursday and with an approaching cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be with us through the weekend. As of now, most widespread storm coverage is expected late Saturday into Sunday morning. We’ll turn significantly cooler than normal (yet again) early next week.
Tropics: As expected in August into September, the tropics are turning increasingly active. This morning, Tropical Storm Franklin continues to grab headlines as he is becoming more organized and positioned to impact the Yucatan today through Wednesday. From there, Franklin is anticipated to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. With very warm waters and a low shear environment, Franklin should strengthen yet again before making a second landfall late in the work week along the east-central Mexican coast.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/07/considerable-cloudiness-to-open-the-work-week/
Highlights:
- Fall-like feel to close the week
- Weekend shower chances
- Unseasonably refreshing pattern
Early October Or Early August?! A cold front will sweep through the state Friday morning. A line of showers and embedded thunder will accompany the FROPA (frontal passage) before a dramatic wind shift to the northwest. Unseasonably cool air will filter into central Indiana Friday afternoon and keep most in the upper 60s (69° is our average high October 5th). Just remarkable stuff for the first Friday in August…
A cool, crisp start Saturday will pave way for comfortable afternoon conditions under mixed clouds and sun. Flipping the page to the second half of the weekend, we’re going to have to hit the rain chance a little harder with this forecast update, including a rather overcast day. Periodic showers will keep temperatures well below normal.
Early showers will be with us Monday before a drier air mass builds into the state for the midweek stretch. Additionally, reinforcing cool air will flow in here Monday night and set the stage for simply gorgeous conditions around these parts next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/03/this-is-august/
