Category: Forecast Models

70 Degree + Type Weather Coming?

While we remain in a overall colder than normal pattern, spring, obviously, has to get here one day, right?!  The past week has seen an increase in spring at least “flirting” with the region for brief 24-36 hour time periods and this will continue over the upcoming week.

We remain concerned about a potential shot of well below normal cold to open April, but we thought it would be nice to talk about something pleasant for a change.  🙂  We’re keeping a close eye on next weekend, March 22nd and 23rd, for the potential first 70 degree + type day at IND this year.

The latest ensembles aren’t shying away from a significant, though transient, ridge building in during this time period.

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Note the GFS showing the transient, though significantly, warmer than normal air that would likely occur in this type pattern.  70 degrees + would certainly be attainable.

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See, we don’t just provide doom and gloom (though this past winter may seem that way) at IndyWx.com!

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A Look At Friday And A Comment On Sunday…

Good evening.  We wanted to touch base on a couple of things this evening.  Details are in the video…

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Catching Up After A Day Outside Enjoying This Weather…

1.) We don’t really have any changes to the going snowfall accumulation forecast we have out concerning Wednesday.  We think Indianapolis accumulates 2″, with heavier amounts north of the city…

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A Look At Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

The region has been under the influence of a cold eastern trough month to date with a brief relaxation taking place presently. The frigid March start and anomalously cold east…

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Spring Tease Through Tuesday; Back To Winter Wednesday.

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34/ 60

40/ 63

18/ 40

10/ 35

27/ 53

32/ 49

28/ 40

Light

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Forecast Updated 03.10.14 @ 7:55a

Windy Warm Up…A weak weather system will scoot north of IND this morning, but may be close enough to push a couple of very light showers into our northern suburbs during the mid to late morning period.  We note the latest HRRR model does just that.  Precipitation amounts, if any, north of the city will be very light and not much more than a trace. Otherwise the big story today will be a gusty southwest wind and much warmer temperatures. We think highs zero in on the 60 degree mark by this afternoon as southwest winds gust over 30 MPH.

This then sets the stage for a “chamber of commerce” weather day Tuesday with lots of sunshine and temperatures in the lower 60s.

Wintry Trouble Brewing…We continue to monitor the “goings on” for an accumulating snow event in here on Wednesday.  Low pressure will scoot across southern portions of the state Wednesday morning and help spread what will initially be rain into the region during the wee morning hours.  As the low deepens heading east it’ll tap much colder air looming just north of our area and result in a transition from rain to snow Wednesday morning from north to south.  A heavy, wet snow is likely to fall during the mid to late morning hours before ending.  The other aspect of this system will be a very stiff northeast wind and this will lead to blowing and drifting problems for some. Our expected snowfall accumulation idea ranges from 2-5″ of heavy, wet snow north of the city with 2″, or less, anticipated for the city and points south.  We’ll fine tune these amounts later, but feel our initial idea remains a good one this morning.

Thursday will return to the dry theme though much colder than what the early week period was.

Questions Heading Into Next Weekend…Forecast models are having difficulty handling what’s going to be a very active northwest flow regime later in the weekend into the following week.  We’re concerned at least one of the systems diving in from Canada has the chance to phase with the southern stream and crank out another snow event for the Ohio Valley during the time frame mentioned above, but we’re not confident on which system this will be just yet.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2-5″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″

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