Category: Forecast Models

Nov 16

Some Saturday Afternoon Thoughts…

We continue to monitor Sunday’s severe weather outbreak very closely.  Simply put, the latest data suggests all of central Indiana will be under the gun for a potentially dangerous and life threatening severe weather event Sunday.  The bullet points highlighted in our previous post haven’t changed, but we note tornado parameters may be even more impressive per latest data.  Unfortunately, I’m afraid multiple tornado touchdowns will be reported across central Indiana tomorrow afternoon, followed by a more widespread damaging straight line wind event mid to late evening.  Certainly please keep abreast of the latest watches and warnings that will come tomorrow.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight, but will remain below severe levels.  The latest NAM simulated radar shows the developing showers and thunderstorms tonight.

hires_ref_ky_18

Fast forward to Sunday evening and we note a line  of severe thunderstorms moving through central Indiana, including a potential widespread damaging wind event.

hires_ref_ky_34

Also, just to let you know, we’re also monitoring next weekend for another possible big weather event.  This time we’re not talking severe weather, but possibly a major early season arctic attack…  The latest European model isn’t holding back.  Could a cold Thanksgiving week be shaping up?  We’ll monitor closely.

f192

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Nov 10

Video Update On Snow Accumulation & The Cold

Here’s a quick video update taking a look more closely at the forecast data for accumulating snow ahead Monday evening, as well as the impressive early season shot of cold…

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Nov 07

Friday Forecast: Cold Start To The Day!

Updated 11.07.13 @ 10:47p

Zionsville, IN Strong northwest winds are howling in the open country this evening and creating downright cold conditions out. Temperatures in the lower 30s are combining with a northwest wind gusting to 20 MPH to create wind chills in the lower to middle 20s tonight.  Certainly bundle up if plans take you out tonight!

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 28/ 50

A reinforcing shot of chilly air blew into the state Thursday night and is leading to another cold start to the day.  Look for a sun-filled Friday to help boost temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy; 38/ 56

Low pressure will race through the northern Great Lakes region Saturday afternoon. This will help drag a dry front through the region Saturday night, but the majority of Saturday we’ll enjoy milder, southwesterly winds.  Saturday can be expected the pick of the 7-day outlook with dry skies and mild temperatures.  We’ll note a gusty southwest breeze during the afternoon, especially in the open country.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 35/ 50

We’ll enjoy another dry and sunny day Sunday though it’ll be several degrees cooler when compared to the first half of the weekend.  The reason?  A northerly flow behind the dry frontal boundary that’ll be drug through central Indiana Saturday evening.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 55

While dry conditions will be in place Monday, we’ll have our eyes pointed north bound as an early season arctic air mass gets ready to descend upon the Ohio Valley and Mid West…

 

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconTuesday: AM light snow; PM scattered snow showers (dusting to 1″); 27/ 35

A strong cold front will plunge south and move through the Hoosier state Tuesday.  Behind the front, a huge arctic high will sink south out of Canada and help unseasonably cold air to settle over the area for mid week.  As the front moves through Tuesday morning, light rain will quickly mix with and change to light snow. Some light accumulations of snow can be expected.  Then, as we move into the afternoon, “system” generated snow will diminish and give way to scattered afternoon snow showers.  There is a chance portions of the state, particularly the northern snow belt, deals with some lake effect snow bands Tuesday.  Just how far south these snow bands make it will have to be fine tuned as we draw closer.  Stay tuned.

Status-weather-clear-iconWednesday: Mostly sunny; 21/ 37

We’ll keep a close eye on things, but latest data tonight suggests that strong area of high pressure overwhelms the region and results in unseasonably cold, but dry weather for the middle of next week.

 

Status-weather-clouds-icon  Thursday: Partly cloudy; 28/ 48

Moderating temperatures will ensue Thursday as we get back into a    southwesterly flow of air.  That said, temperatures will remain below average.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-forecast-cold-start-to-the-day/

Nov 05

Wet Pattern Continues

While the midday model data continues to flip flop on the temperature outcome next week, one thing seems rather likely and that’s the idea we remain in a pattern that will produce significant rainfall over the next 10 days.

Let’s take a look at the ECMWF, GFS, and GEM (Canadian) for precipitation amounts over the next 7-10 days.

gfs_tprecip_conus2_65cmc_precip_by10_conus_1ecmwf_precip_10_conus_41

Model data paints a wet picture of widespread 1.5″-2″+ type rainfall totals over the upcoming 7-10 day period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-pattern-continues/

Nov 05

Two Totally Different Solutions For Next Week!

I wanted to quickly post on two totally different scenarios for next week.  Two of the more powerful forecast models we use to look into the mid-long range are in separate worlds when it comes to the weather pattern the middle to latter part of next week.

Here’s a look at the GFS upper air pattern:

gfs_z500_sig_east_38

Note the eastern ridging which would lead to well above normal temperatures during the middle to latter part of next week (by as much as 10 degrees above average), along with dry conditions.

HOWEVER, here’s a look at the European’s forecast upper air pattern late next week:

ecm_z500_anom_east_11

This would certainly be quite the significant storm for the Northeast, but the implications here are vastly different from that which the GFS shows above.  Instead of warmth and dry conditions, we’d deal with highs in the middle 30s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 20s.  Additionally, we’d also “enjoy” (okay, some folks would “enjoy”) snow showers and snow squalls the middle to latter portion of next week, as noted per the European below, including a lake Michigan connection.

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_36

 

Needless to say, we have a lot to sort out in the coming days.  We’ll be here to do just that.  Make it a great Tuesday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/two-totally-different-solutions-for-next-week/