Category: Forecast Models

Jun 19

Remaining Active…

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It was a rather noisy evening across north-central Indiana with numerous strong to severe thunderstorms that dumped torrential downpours and provided damaging wind for some.  While rainfall totals certainly weren’t “uniform,” many communities received anywhere from 1.5″ – 2.5″ of rain between the two rounds of storms.  Today and Friday are liable to be another couple of active days as the heat, humidity, and instability builds during the afternoon.  Heavy showers and embedded stronger thunderstorms will likely fire across central Indiana this afternoon.  Locally heavy rain can be expected with any storm that develops.  As we move forward, we still think we can introduce slightly drier air into your weekend forecast with rain coverage greatly reduced Saturday and almost non-existent Sunday.  Next week poses a whole set of problems as forecast models aren’t in agreement in the least.  For now we’ll go with a blend, leaning slightly more in the direction of the cooler/ drier GFS by the middle of next week as it’s been performing nicely with the cooler, drier air masses so far this spring and summer.  Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/remaining-active/

Jun 18

Two Rounds Of Storms Ahead.

Good evening friends!  I hope this finds you having a nice Wednesday.  Our video update this evening looks at a couple rounds of strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms ahead.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/two-rounds-of-storms-ahead/

Jun 18

Nighttime Thunder…

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An unsettled and overall active weather pattern will remain in place over the upcoming forecast period.  While it certainly won’t rain and storm the duration of the next seven days, we’ll have to focus in on individual disturbances and the associated impacts on our immediate region as we move forward.  The Storm Prediction Center does include the majority of central Indiana in a Slight Risk of severe weather this afternoon and tonight, with damaging straight line winds the primary concern.  All of that said, we also must point out that some of our short term model data is trending east with the thunderstorm activity tonight, primarily impacting eastern Indiana into Ohio.  We’ll monitor things closely and have another update on a potential storm track and timing this evening.  Stay tuned.  Widespread seven day rainfall numbers off an average of computer models would place 1.5″-2″ down across central Indiana.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/nighttime-thunder/

Jun 17

Still Anticipate Late June Changes…

We asked this question on our Twitter account earlier this morning.  Do you prefer heat and humidity or frigid and snowy?  Here’s a look out the back door from the IndyWx.com HQ from this morning and then back to right after the early January winter storm.  Note the snow depth on the fence line.  Amazing stuff!

BqVrtazCQAAKGVy.jpg-largeBqVrtMxCYAA-OdA.jpg-large

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway…as we look ahead, we still anticipate an overall regime change as we progress through the upcoming weekend and into next week.

Model data remains in rather good agreement on the evolution of the upper air pattern over the course of the upcoming 7-10 day period.  The GFS is a touch more aggressive on the eastern trough when compared to the European, but both agree on week 2 cooling, as do we.

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This won’t be tremendously cool air (such as last weekend), but when compared to averages, we’re likely to cool things back to slightly below normal.

The PSD shows the changes, as well.  Note the current eastern ridge is replaced by the Day 10 eastern trough.

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The precipitation idea is one that is continued wet.  Our three primary mid range global models (GFS, Canadian, Euro) agree on widespread rainfall totals of 1.5″-3″ (locally heavier totals where stronger thunderstorms move) over the next 10 days.  Here’s a closer look at the Canadian, thanks to the model suite at Weatherbell Analytics.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/still-anticipate-late-june-changes/

Jun 16

Monday Evening Video Update; Feeling Very Much Like Summer…

Quick video update tonight discusses some of our thoughts as we progress through the week ahead!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-evening-video-update-feeling-very-much-like-summer/