Category: Forecast Models

Nighttime Thunder…

Wed.

Thr.

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Tue.

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71/ 89

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62/ 84

66/ 89

70/ 82 

Light

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Light

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Light

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Moderate

An unsettled and overall active weather pattern will remain in place over the upcoming forecast period.  While it certainly won’t rain and storm the duration of the next seven days, we’ll have to focus in on individual disturbances and the associated impacts on our immediate region as we move forward.  The Storm Prediction Center does include the majority of central Indiana in a Slight Risk of severe weather this afternoon and tonight, with damaging straight line winds the primary concern.  All of that said, we also must point out that some of our short term model data is trending east with the thunderstorm activity tonight, primarily impacting eastern Indiana into Ohio.  We’ll monitor things closely and have another update on a potential storm track and timing this evening.  Stay tuned.  Widespread seven day rainfall numbers off an average of computer models would place 1.5″-2″ down across central Indiana.

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Still Anticipate Late June Changes…

We asked this question on our Twitter account earlier this morning.  Do you prefer heat and humidity or frigid and snowy?  Here’s a look out the back door from the IndyWx.com HQ from this morning and then back to right after the early January winter storm.  Note the snow depth on the fence line.  Amazing stuff!

BqVrtazCQAAKGVy.jpg-largeBqVrtMxCYAA-OdA.jpg-large

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway…as we look ahead, we still anticipate an overall regime change as we progress through the upcoming weekend and into next week.

Model data remains in rather good agreement on the evolution of the upper air pattern over the course of the upcoming 7-10 day period.  The GFS is a touch more aggressive on the eastern trough when compared to the European, but both agree on week 2 cooling, as do we.

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This won’t be tremendously cool air (such as last weekend), but when compared to averages, we’re likely to cool things back to slightly below normal.

The PSD shows the changes, as well.  Note the current eastern ridge is replaced by the Day 10 eastern trough.

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The precipitation idea is one that is continued wet.  Our three primary mid range global models (GFS, Canadian, Euro) agree on widespread rainfall totals of 1.5″-3″ (locally heavier totals where stronger thunderstorms move) over the next 10 days.  Here’s a closer look at the Canadian, thanks to the model suite at Weatherbell Analytics.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/still-anticipate-late-june-changes/

Monday Evening Video Update; Feeling Very Much Like Summer…

Quick video update tonight discusses some of our thoughts as we progress through the week ahead!

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Monday Morning Weather Rambles…

Walking out the door this morning feels dramatically different than what we’ve enjoyed over the weekend!  Not only are humidity levels much higher, but temperatures are 15-20 degrees warmer than what they were this time 24 hours ago across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

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With the increased warmth and humidity, it’s not going to take much to kick scattered showers and thunderstorms off.  That’s exactly what we’re seeing across central Indiana this morning.  Locally heavy downpours are possible under any of the stronger storms.

Look at the Northeast region radar snapped at 8am, courtesy of the Penn State e-wall site:

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As for precipitation amounts, it still appears as if we’re in a wetter than normal regime over the next couple weeks.  As of this morning, we’re officially running 1.56″ above normal at IND year-to-date.  A look over a blend of GFS, Euro, and Canadian would imply widespread 2-3″ amounts over the upcoming two weeks, with locally heavier totals where local downpours occur.  This is NOT what one wanting a hot pattern to lock in wants to hear.

While warmth and humidity will be the story this week, we still think we turn cooler to wrap up June.  We’ve been talking about a cooler than normal pattern developing for late month and latest guidance continues to suggest that thinking has merit.  Much more later!  BTW- your 7-day forecast can be found here.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240wk1.wk2_20140615.NAsfcT z500_anom_f192_ussm

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-weather-rambles-2/

Thursday Morning Long Range Outlook…

Good morning!  We’ll have your full, updated, 7-day forecast posted here later this evening!  We wanted to discuss a few of the weather highlights as we move forward the next week, and beyond!

1.  A cold front will move through tonight and early Friday.  A shower or thunderstorm is possible as the front moves through, but won’t be a huge deal. Best rain/ storm chances appear to be across eastern portions of the region.

2.  Temperatures and humidity values will be at levels simply as pleasant as you can ask for this time of year Friday and Saturday.  Upper 60s to lower 70s during the afternoon and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  Hint of fall before true summer even begins?!  I’ll take it!

3.  Heat and humidity builds next week with ridging, but we continue to think this is a transient type pattern and seeds are already being planted for cooler times once past June 20th.  A couple days of 90 degree heat are possible mid to late next week.  Furthermore, with all of the moisture in the ground, humidity levels will be oppressive.  In other words, it turns hot and humid next week, but nothing too unusual for this time of year.  Like so many other times it’s tried to get hot this year, it seems as if the seeds for cooler are already being seen.

Lets examine some of the mid to long range model data.  We’ll start with a look at the 500 mb pattern off the GFS reforecast product from the Physical Science Division (PSD).  Note the riding that develops next week, but also note the trough and associated cooler pattern showing up just after the 20th.

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The GFS ensembles show the warmth (they still aren’t representing the warmth to the magnitude in which we’re going to see in my opinion, but you get the overall idea) next week and the coming cooler pattern around, and after, the 20th, relative to normal.

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The Canadian NAEFS product is next, outlining the temperature anomalies 6/20-6/27.  Note the warmer temperatures relative to normal (represented by the reds and orange hues) shifting off the east coast and the cooler temperatures (blue shades) developing and spreading east through the center of the country.

2014061200_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198

Finally, let’s look at the CFSv2 weeks 3-4 product.  Again, we admit this model can be erratic at times, but we feel like it has a good handle on the coming pattern, as well, in this particular case.  The greens show the cooler than average pattern anticipated as we go through the back 7-10 days of June.

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As we close, it should also be noted that the overall active and wetter than normal pattern looks to continue as we put a wrap to the month of June.  We’re already off to a near-record pace for June rainfall across central Indiana and while we’ll have some dry days, the overall theme remains an active and wet one in the weeks ahead.

Much more with your full 7-day forecast later this evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-morning-weather-rambles-2/