Mar 04
We wanted to take the time to quickly update you on a couple of very minor events in here tomorrow evening and again Saturday. Additionally, we’re monitoring the prospects of…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-update-on-the-mid-month-storm-brewing/
Mar 03
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Forecast Updated 03.04.14 @ 8:22a
Sunny, But Cold…Another day of bright sunshine will help temperatures rebound to the freezing mark Tuesday afternoon. While this is still well below normal and closer to the normal low for this date of 29 degrees, it’ll be a full 14 degrees “milder” than Monday’s high. You know it’s been a cold winter when you’re saying the freezing mark is milder for a high in March.
Weak Weather Maker…A weak clipper system will move towards the region Wednesday evening into Thursday. While this will be an accumulating snow producer for areas to our west, current thinking still moves this moisture towards our region, but with a dry air mass in place we think precipitation starts to fall apart as it moves in. All of that said, light snow and scattered snow showers will fall for parts of the region Wednesday night into early Thursday. We still think most don’t deal with much, if any, accumulation, but a light coating is possible in spots. We’ll continue to monitor.
Eyeing Another Wintry Weekend…Modeling is still far from in agreement on the evolution of things on the weekend, but the general idea is one that brings a cold front through here Friday night into early Saturday morning with a wave of low pressure moving northeast out of the middle Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Ohio Valley Saturday. With fresh cold air oozing south, combined with the associated track of the low, this is a potentially wintry set up for the region and we’re officially calling for a wintry mixture of light snow and/ or sleet across central Indiana Saturday. The key word is light, but it could still be enough to create a few slick spots across the region.
Briefly Milder; Tracking The Next Significant Storm…The GFS and Canadian forecast models keep our region dry during the early to middle part of next week as a surface low tracks out of the Gulf and well south and east of our region. On the other hand, the European forecast model winds a storm up much farther north and west and presents a heavy rain and possible thunderstorm threat here by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. We still have time to watch this and think the European may be a little too aggressive at present, but stay tuned.
What we are confident on is a briefly milder push of air early next week that could send temperatures well into the 50s. Don’t get used to it, however, as yet another polar plunge arrives by the mid week stretch.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-record-cold-start-possible/
Feb 28
It’s been a long day, but we’d like nothing more than to be right here in the good ole forecast office, digging into data for our next winter storm with you. While “part 2” of the storm remains just offshore as of this post, it’ll likely be trudging onshore by the time you read this early Saturday morning. That said, the initial wave of accumulating snow (and for some, ice) will arrive as early as late Saturday night/ wee morning hours (well before sunrise) Sunday in the form of an overrunning event- where comparably warmer, more moist air is lifted up and overruns the cold air at the surface.
Early ideas suggest we undergo a period of moderate to heavy wintry precipitation as early as 3-ish Sunday morning, extending into the late morning hours. Particularly, we bracket the hours of 3am to 10am Sunday for the initial wave of wintry weather. This will be a mixed bag of precipitation, including snow, sleet, and freezing rain across central Indiana. An early look at the high resolution simulated radar courtesy of the NAM shows this well- valid 7am Sunday morning. Image is courtesy of the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics.
After a “lull” in the accumulating wintry precipitation from late morning/ early afternoon Sunday, we’ll likely deal with another round of moderate to heavy accumulating wintry precipitation Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. It’s important to note this is where we have more questions than answers in regards to the interaction of a juiced up southern stream of the jet- infused by the powerhouse late season winter storm (still spinning just off shore as of this update). Powerful arctic high pressure will be sinking south and could result in a more suppressed track of the low. Should this be the correct scenario snow totals would likely be towards the lower end of the ongoing 6-8″ forecast we hoisted back on Thursday morning. That said, one can’t ignore the pattern as it’s one notorious for heavy snow producers across central Indiana. A scan over heavy snow events of the past here across central Indiana show similar setups that have yielded impressive snow totals. Just as the potential of suppression has to be noted, so should the potential of a slightly more north trend that models may currently see as time gets closer.
In closing tonight, 12z model data should really begin to hone in on the area most likely to see heaviest snow and/ or ice accumulations. Our ongoing forecast of storm totals remains unchanged for now of 6-8″. Stay tuned, friends.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/some-late-night-thoughts/
Feb 25
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Forecast Updated 02.26.14 @ 7:43a
Frigid Midweek…A brutally cold air mass is blowing into the region this morning, especially considering we’re nearly into March! This is laying the groundwork for a snowy weekend, but we’ll get to that in a bit. Forecast highs average at 44 degrees this time of the year and today’s high will be lucky to reach 18. EVEN COLDER air blows in late tonight into early Thursday and will result in continued dangerous below zero wind chill values. Needless to say, plan to bundle up upon heading outdoors. While the calendar may suggest spring is near, Mother Nature and Old Man Winter have other ideas.
Late Week Light Snow…A warm front will lift north through the region Saturday morning and will be responsible for producing a round of light snow Friday night into Saturday AM. As of now, early numbers suggest around an inch of snow is possible, but we’ll continue to monitor things and update as needed.
Late Weekend Winter Storm…While details are still far from etched in stone, there’s no doubt behind a significant winter storm brewing for the second half of the weekend. This storm will have significant snow for portions of central Indiana and significant icing potential for others. As of now, we anticipate air cold enough to support frozen, or freezing, precipitation across our immediate viewing area of central Indiana. All of that said, we caution that the track and intensity of the storm will likely change between now and Sunday and we’ll continue to keep close tabs on this event. Early numbers are impressive as far as precipitation goes with liquid equivalent amounts around 1″ churned out, on average, from a variety of computers models.
Arctic Air Reloads…We may be into meteorological spring next week, but Old Man Winter continues his relentless ways that we’ve grown so accustomed to over the past several months. Fresh arctic air will plunge into central Indiana’s potentially snow packed ground early next week and could ultimately help yield below zero air by the middle of next week. What an impressive winter.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tracking-a-late-weekend-winter-storm/
Feb 23
We’ll have your updated 7-Day forecast posted later today.
The latest mid and long range guidance continues to suggest we’re heading into another prolonged period of below normal temperatures.
Ensemble data (below) shows ridging in the northeast Pacific, extending into Alaska and this pattern has been one of the big reasons as to why we’ve dealt with so many arctic intrusions this winter. (The first image is a look at the upper air pattern dated Feb. 26th and the second is dated March 11th).
Ridging in this particular part of the globe often times dislodges the cold air and someone “down stream” has to deal with below normal air. The recipient of being “down stream” has just so happened to be the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley and much of the eastern half of the country this winter. That doesn’t show any signs of changing over the next couple weeks, at least. It’s possible we could deal with a day or two of milder weather thrown in the mix, but the overwhelming majority of the upcoming couple weeks looks much colder than normal.
The result is a continuation of much below normal cold in our part of the country. The following graphics illustrate temperature anomalies (in celsius) centered on 5 days between Feb. 23rd-28th and March 6th-11th. Below normal temperatures continue.
A couple of additional thoughts around the upcoming cold pattern: While we can’t show the images here (license issues), the “secret” European weeklies and ensemble data continues the cold, stormy regime across the east for the better part of the upcoming 30 days, with a couple of brief periods of milder, “calmer” weather.
Finally, the CFSv2 suggests the cold regime continues, as well. The first image shows upcoming weeks 1 and 2 and the second shows temperature anomalies weeks 3 and 4. Note the CFSv2 shows southeast ridging developing towards the end of the period, potentially suggesting a big fight goes on between the cold to the north and the budding spring conditions to the south- a stormy suggestion…
In closing, it’s important to note that all of the fancy graphics shown above are simply model guidance and it’s up to us, the forecasters, to interpret the data the best way possible to put together the most accurate mid to long range ideas for you, the viewer. While nothing is a guarantee in this business, it does appear as if chances are quite high that our region deals with another few weeks of colder than normal conditions and potentially active weather ahead. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-ahead-cold-pattern-reloads/
