After a blustery and chilly Saturday (and temperatures in the upper 30s to start our Sunday), a gorgeous close to the weekend is ahead. Wall-to-wall sunshine is expected with moderating temperatures this afternoon. Our average high on the 23rd of April is 66° and we should be very close to that later this afternoon. Enjoy!
High pressure will remain entrenched over our area as we progress through the early portions of the work week. This will provide pleasant weather and plentiful sunshine. With a dry airmass in place, expect significant temperature swings. Overnight lows in the 40s will quickly rise into the 70s Monday and Tuesday.
High pressure will dominate our early-week weather.
A southerly flow will help pull a more humid air mass northward Wednesday and as a cold front slices into the unseasonably warm and muggy airmass, we expect showers and thunderstorms to increase Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. We still have some time to watch things evolve, but from this distance, we feel strong to severe thunderstorm potential is present during this period. Locally heavy rains are also possible as PWATs zoom to 1.5″ +.
Precipitable water values will increase to 1.5″+ Wednesday and support the threat of locally heavy rain.
We’ll get into some briefly drier air to wrap up the work week, but a warm front will blow through the region Saturday and will likely be accompanied by thunderstorms as it lifts north. Once the warm front passes, unseasonably warm and humid air will make a return and set the stage for a true summer-like feel next weekend. We expect highs to go into the lower to middle 80s with a muggy feel, as well.
Finally, after Saturday morning thunder, we think the majority of next weekend is dry before a cold front brings a return to widespread showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.
It’ll be a much cooler day today (temperatures are running close to 20° cooler than this time Thursday morning) with highs only topping out around 60 for the city, itself, and only into the mid to upper 50s across north-central Indiana.
More widespread rain showers will move in overnight into Saturday. Heaviest rain will fall across the southern half of the state (1″-2″ possible). Factor in a strong and gusty easterly wind, temperatures only in the 40s for much of the day, and periods of rain and you have the makings for a downright “raw” Saturday.
The good news here is that we still think things dry out for the second half of the weekend. The last round of showers should pull off to the east Saturday night and pave way for a dry Sunday, including increasing sunshine as morning gives way to afternoon.
With the increasing sunshine Sunday, temperatures will respond closer to average highs in the middle 60s. After we spend most of Saturday in the 40s that sure will feel nice!
As a cold front slices into the summer-like warmth (highs will approach 80° Wednesday afternoon), scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into Thursday.
We then will shift gears rather abruptly as we move through the latter portions of the work week and on into the weekend with well below normal chill. In fact, if current data comes to fruition, most of the weekend will be spent in the 40s.
Factor in a stiff northeast wind and periods of rain, we have the makings for a downright “raw” weekend. We suggest having indoor activities planned this weekend as an extended period of damp, blustery, and unseasonably cool weather awaits.
We still have a few days to continue watching the data, but early indications suggest locally heavy rainfall is possible (1″-2″) across the region…
Highs will run close to 15° above average this afternoon.
Stormy weather returns Monday as a frontal boundary slips into the state. A couple storms may become strong or severe Monday afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center highlights northwestern portions of the state for a Slight Risk. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with any severe storm that may develop.
High pressure returns for midweek and supplies a dry regime, along with increasing sunshine and temperatures that will run slightly above average (mid-40s at night and 65°-70° during the day).
There are questions once to the end of the period as the GFS and European handle the evolution of our late-week storm differently. The GFS brings energy out into the Ohio Valley and results in unsettled weather returning Friday, continuing into Easter weekend, while the European is slower. We’ll keep an eye on things over the next few days and update accordingly. The GFS suggests some localized heavier downpours would be possible in the Friday-Sunday period as the majority of the 7-day precipitation snapshot below falls within the timeframe.
Week 2:
Weeks 3-4:
The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in. Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains. The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period. Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms. We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…