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Jul 13
Rain is once again falling apart moving into central Indiana this morning. Short term model data is a bit aggressive on rain and storms. The visible satellite image shows plenty…
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Jul 08
The search for that first 90 degree day will have to go on (and on and on and on…) as the pattern remains one that will continue to make it very difficult for any sort of long-lasting, sustained, heat. In fact, we’re actually going to trend temperatures even cooler as we move into Week 2- the exact opposite of what you’d come to expect as we rumble into mid to late July.
Before we get into next week, let’s focus on the shorter term. Drier air is on our doorstep as a cold front sweeps central Indiana this evening. This will set the stage for a very pleasant mid week stretch, including temperatures that remain below average and dew points that fall into the 50s. Note the latest dew point plot below, indicating dew points falling into the 50s, and remaining there for the better part of the next (3) days:
We will turn much more humid (oppressively so) over the weekend and this will help aid in thunderstorm development over the weekend. Most of the region can expect around an inch of rain, on average, between Friday night and Tuesday, mostly thanks to complexes of thunderstorms. However, there will be locally heavier totals exceeding 2″ in spots.
A MUCH stronger front will sweep the state Tuesday and result in temperatures and weather conditions that are much more fall-like than summer. A couple days next week have the potential to remain in the 60s for highs (centering on Tuesday-Wednesday for that as of now) and overnight lows could dip into the middle 40s to near 50. Breezy north and northwest winds can also be anticipated. – Certainly far from what you’d expect for this time of year!
Here’s what the upper air pattern will look like next week:
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Jul 06
What a weather year this has been for central Indiana. Snow and cold translated to wet and stormy as winter turned to spring. Now as summer rumbles into the supposed “dog days” we’re really left with the exact opposite. Our weather pattern will be dominated by a fast moving northwest flow over the upcoming (7) days and this spells an active and stormy open to the work week and next weekend, with an “island” of cool, pleasant weather thrown in the mix Wednesday through Friday.
The GFS operational run shows that we’ll remain locked into the rather active northwest flow pattern through the upcoming week. Note that while the trough axis moves east with time, the northwest flow remains intact.
There’s excellent ensemble support from the GEFS and EC, as well.
The end result is a (7) day stretch that remains cooler than normal when all added up, highlighted by the cooler punch of air (worthy of open windows yet again) Wed-Fri.
This also remains quite the active pattern in regards to thunderstorm complexes and rounds of locally heavy rainfall. We bracket late tonight into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday, followed by next weekend for possible storm complexes that will make for a rather noisy time of things here. As for the severe threat, we’ll have to keep a close eye on each complex. It’s possible one or two of these could pose a damaging wind threat as they race southeast and that’s our biggest concern as of now.
When you total it all up, the upcoming (7) day period, July 7th-14th, is likely to lead to more significant rainfall over the region. The Canadian isn’t holding back, suggesting widespread 2-3″ totals. That may be a bit “bullish,” but we’ll forecast 1.5″-2″ with ease during the upcoming week, including locally heavier totals.
Quick summary:
Monday through Tuesday will be highlighted by rainy and stormy periods before we introduce a much cooler and drier regime Wednesday through Friday. Humidity builds over the upcoming weekend with additional rain and thunderstorm chances returning.
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Jul 01
It’s hard to believe we’re approaching the July 4th holiday already. Where is the summer going?! I remember back in my football days, once past the 4th, summer was over for me as two-a-days began the following week. Come late July, we would beg for the fall semester of school to begin! 🙂
If you’re like me, the upcoming weather pattern in the days ahead will certainly have you craving fall! Lows in outlying areas will dip into the upper 40s come Friday morning (not bad for the 4th of July, huh)? Anyway, here are some things that have the attention of IndyWx.com in the days (and weeks) ahead…
1.) Trending Cooler…Note the cooler air in the upper Mid West this evening, including many already in the 50s and 60s. That cooler air will head south with time Wednesday into Thursday. We’ll note the cooler temperatures tomorrow as highs only reach the middle to upper 70s. The cooler than normal temperatures will really settle into the region tomorrow night and Thursday, continuing for the big 4th of July holiday. Some outlying communities may fall into the upper 40s Friday morning!
2.) Arthur…What’s now Tropical Storm Arthur will likely continue to strengthen in the days ahead and potentially come too close for comfort to the NC Outer Banks around the upcoming holiday. By the time Arthur is along (or just offshore) the NC coastline, he may be packing hurricane force winds. Certainly, plenty of rough seas are to be had up and down the mid Atlantic coast into the Northeast coastal waters for the upcoming long holiday weekend.
3.) Continued Active Pattern…Though we’ll enjoy some much needed dry weather as we cool things down, an active time of things will return early next week, including multiple storm chances.
Additionally, we don’t forecast any sort of significant heat for the foreseeable future. In fact, we may “enjoy” another round of unseasonably cool air by the middle to latter parts of next week, as projected by the ESRL/PSD upper air pattern above.
4.) Thoughts Turning To Fall & Winter…Part of what we provide here are thoughts on the seasonal and long range, including a variety of model data that may argue for, and against, our seasonal ideas (have to keep an open mind and be sure not to “model hug” any sort of data set). The latest JAMSTEC ideas have to make those eastern winter lovers smile…
As we transition from fall to winter, the model suggests a weak, to borderline moderate, El Nino progresses into a Modoki ENSO event (read more HERE about the differences between an El Nino event and an El Nino Modoki event). Combine this with the warmer than normal north-central and northeastern PAC waters and the players are, at least, on the field for a colder than average east- particularly southeast.
Pure speculation at this point, and it should be pointed out that this model struggled on the cold winter last year at this time. Instead of the cold winter we experienced, it’s 2013 June forecast for December-February 2013-2014 was a warm one. We’ll keep a close eye on the trends through late summer into fall.
An important note- as opposed to looking into the flip-flopping forecast temperature regime at this juncture, focus more on the projected oceanic patterns. Time will tell, but even though we’re only into early July, know that we continue to formulate some early thoughts and ideas on the upcoming fall and winter…
Have a relaxing night and God Bless!
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