Category: Forecast Models

A weak weather maker will impact Indiana and the Ohio Valley Thursday, especially during the afternoon into the overnight. Precipitation will be relatively light with most amounts around one tenth of an inch, or less.  Note the light precipitation moving through the region Thursday with time stamps below of 7p Thursday and 1a Friday.  Wet snow will mix in with the rain over northeastern IN tomorrow night.

A more active week is ahead, with a couple storm systems to track.  Note forecast precipitation amounts increase from week 1 to week 2.

Heaviest rains target the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley week 1 before shifting north week 2.  The heavy precipitation axis points a finger from OK and AR through MO and IL, northern IN, and MI week 2.

Some of this heavier rain is just what the Doctor ordered for areas beginning to reflect abnormally dry conditions and/ or drought.

We track a weak, but cold system early next week that could deliver a touch of light wet snow Monday.  The GFS led the way on this, but the European and Canadian have jumped on board with today’s runs.

Another (stronger) storm system is in the offing later next week.  This should be the one that delivers heavy rains from the mid south on northeast.

Looking ahead towards late month into early April, temperatures will reflect the normal “roller coaster” regime for this time of year; however biased colder than normal.  Note the excellent model consensus on the colder than average regime.