Category: Forecast Models

Nov 20

Potent System; Friday Evening Thinking…

This evening’s radar shows our potent weather maker providing a plethora of weather elements to our west.  Anything from heavy snow (numerous 12″ + reports coming in across IA) to thunderstorms across MO have made for an active Friday evening.

9pRadarThinking hasn’t changed much from the get go with this storm system, but we wanted to “freshen” things up a bit before bed.

Rain will overspread central IN through the morning hours before transitioning to snow from late morning into the early afternoon.  This transition will occur in a northwest to southeast fashion as colder air wraps into the region.

Here’s a timeline (thanks to Weatherbell.com) of what the radar may look like as Saturday morning progresses into Saturday afternoon.

8aSat

12pSatAs rain transitions to snow, it’ll likely come down rather “fast and furious” for a time before ending.  Despite what may be moderate to heavy snow for a time (especially along and north of the I-70 corridor- there’s the “magic” dividing line again :-)), warm surface temperatures will really limit what snow will actually accumulate.  As things stand now, we still forecast a widespread 2″-4″ snowfall across the northern portions of the state, with 4″-6″ amounts in favored lake effect areas.  Farther south to include central IN, a dusting to less than 1″ is a good bet before precipitation ends.

The growing concern Saturday night will be a stiff northwest wind driving MUCH colder air into the region.  This will help power a brief lake effect event across NE areas of the state before shutting down quickly by the wee morning hours Sunday.

LakeEffectAny lingering moisture on area roadways will freeze up quickly tomorrow night.  With a deep snowpack just to our north, the NW flow will keep things very cold around these parts into early next week.  Note widespread teens Sunday morning across north-central IN and even this might not be cold enough.  If we lay the expected snowfall down, don’t be surprised by some single digit temperatures (not counting wind chill values) across north-central IN Sunday morning.  Highs Sunday will remain below freezing for most.

‘Tis the season!  More in the AM, and happy snow dreams to all!

teens

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/potent-system-friday-evening-thinking/

Nov 19

Saturday Snow…

There’s just something special about seeing the first flakes of the season.  While this initial wintry event won’t be a big deal accumulation-wise for central IN, a few inches of snow will be likely across northern portions of the state Saturday.  Here’s our initial snowfall forecast, brought to you by the IndySportsReport.com.112115SnowForecast1stLookThe next two days will be easy and rather “boring” as far as the weather goes.  Look for more in the way of sunshine today before clouds begin increasing as Friday progresses into evening.  The initial push of moisture should reach central IN Friday night (as rain).  Rain will then transition to snow showers before ending across central IN Saturday morning into the early afternoon.  Farther north, look for a quicker transition to snow where we forecast a 2″-4″ type accumulation event for places along and north of a Newton County to De Kalb County line.  This is an early call and may require some fine tuning as we go through the next 24 hours.  We’re about as confident as we can be with the forecast at this juncture, but do note a couple differences with the track of the low between the various models we use.

Here’s the track set-up:

A wave of low pressure will “scoot” east, northeast Friday into Saturday as highlighted here by the fine folks at Weatherbell.com.

FriEvening

FriNight

SaturdayMorningEnough of a south wind will keep us just warm enough to provide mainly a rain event for central and southern portions of the state.  Colder air will be deeper and more entrenched across northern IN where this should be a mainly snow event.  As the winds quickly whip around to the NW Saturday morning, temperatures will plummet and lingering moisture will quickly transition to snow for all of the state.

Behind the rain-to-snow event Saturday morning, the coldest air of the season will plunge into the state.  Lows Sunday morning will fall into the teens for many of central IN, especially if we can lay down a snow cover up north.  Throw in a gusty NW wind and wind chill values in the single digits are a good bet.

Can things still change with the track of this storm?  Absolutely.  While we feel as confident as we can be at this stage in the game, we do note a couple differences with the track of this area of low pressure (as mentioned above) between the various computer models we use.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.  One other item of note is the relatively warm surface temperatures and that will cut back on accumulations across not only central, but northern parts of the state, as well.  Much more later!

If you’re interested in becoming a partner of IndyWx.com and sponsoring various snowfall forecasts, forecast discussions (video and print), be sure to send us an e-mail at bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-snow/

Nov 17

Tuesday Evening Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-video-update-4/

Nov 17

Couple Storms To Watch And Much Colder Air…

Screen Shot 2015-11-17 at 7.30.17 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of rain
  • Turning cooler
  • Next storm offers up wintry precipitation for parts of the state
  • Early arctic blast

Periods of rain will continue into the mid to late afternoon across central IN as “wave 2” of our current storm system moves through.  We’ve added a couple simulated radar images below, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

9aFuture

2pFutureThis is all in association with a significant autumn storm system that’s been responsible for delivering hefty snows across the Rockies, blizzard conditions across the High Plains, and severe weather across the central and southern Plains.  This storm will lift northeast over the next 24-36 hours.

TuePM

WedPMA third, and final, wave of moisture will push through the state Wednesday, in a weakened state from what our friends to the west will experience (where another round of severe is expected today and tonight).  This is what the radar may look like mid-morning-ish Wednesday.

10aWedFutureWhen all is totaled up from rain that began Monday afternoon and ends Wednesday afternoon, many locales will pick up 1.5″-2″ of needed rainfall.  While significant, those numbers are lower than what originally model data implied, but we’ll take what we can get to push closer to average for November rainfall.

All eyes will then shift to our second storm system that will arrive over the weekend.  There are still more questions than answers in regards to track of this next “wave” of low pressure, but with much colder air in place and pouring in behind the system, snow will fly across northern IN.  As of now we forecast the majority of this event to fall in a liquid form across central IN, but even here precipitation may end as light snow showers the way things stand now.  Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the track. Regardless, much colder air will be with us to end the period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/couple-storms-to-watch-and-much-colder-air/

Nov 14

Big, Wet Storm System Sitting On Deck…

Enjoy the weekend, my friends, as a big and wet storm system awaits on deck to impact early to mid week across the region.

November, so far, has followed suit of the past few months in a much drier than normal regime.  Over the past (7) days heaviest rains fell across SE portions of the state.  On the month so far, IND sits around 1″ below normal.

Past 7 day precipitation anomalies, courtesy of the MidWest Climate Watch.

Past 7 day precipitation anomalies, courtesy of the MidWest Climate Watch.

That rainfall deficit may be eaten up over the course of a couple days as our next storm system rolls off the Rockies and into the Plains.  (Track sound familiar)?

Monday

Tuesday

WednesdayThe storm will tap into the Gulf of Mexico and include a deep southerly flow plenty capable of producing a heavy rain event across the region.  Note PWATs (precipitable water) nearly 300% of normal.PWAT

gfs_pwat_anom_conus2_18

We target Tuesday night-Wednesday as the focal point for heaviest rain potential and model data remains firm on general consensus of 2″-3″ falling with this next storm system, including locally heavier totals.

soflow

raintotalsAfter this next storm, attention will begin to shift towards a colder pattern setting up for late November, including Thanksgiving…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-wet-storm-system-sitting-on-deck/